Comments on: That Was a Doozy! http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html Redfin Corporate Blog Sun, 22 Nov 2009 20:09:04 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.1 hourly 1 By: OnBlog: The Onboard Informatics Blog. Conversations on Real Estate, Demographics, Geography, Data, Neighborhoods, and Technology » Blog Archive » The Good, the Bad, and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html/comment-page-1#comment-5807 OnBlog: The Onboard Informatics Blog. Conversations on Real Estate, Demographics, Geography, Data, Neighborhoods, and Technology » Blog Archive » The Good, the Bad, and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Tue, 12 May 2009 18:15:31 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html#comment-5807 [...] I am re-posting this blog in response to the redfin post: http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html [...] [...] I am re-posting this blog in response to the redfin post: http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html [...]

]]> By: Jonathan Blackwell http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html/comment-page-1#comment-4298 Jonathan Blackwell Tue, 04 Nov 2008 03:20:22 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html#comment-4298 That is some interesting data. Not included up above was Atlanta: "House prices in metro Atlanta were down 8.5 percent from August 2007 to August 2008, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index. The report, published Oct. 28, shows Atlanta home prices went down 0.2 percent from July to August, following a 0.3 percent rise from June to July." My personal website traffic dropped the most in early October around the time of the bailout and has picked up slightly recently. It will be interesting to see those numbers when they come out. That is some interesting data. Not included up above was Atlanta:

“House prices in metro Atlanta were down 8.5 percent from August 2007 to August 2008, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index.

The report, published Oct. 28, shows Atlanta home prices went down 0.2 percent from July to August, following a 0.3 percent rise from June to July.”

My personal website traffic dropped the most in early October around the time of the bailout and has picked up slightly recently. It will be interesting to see those numbers when they come out.

]]> By: Drew Morgan http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html/comment-page-1#comment-4272 Drew Morgan Thu, 30 Oct 2008 23:34:41 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html#comment-4272 The Case-Shiller methodology is fine for looking at macro trends in large market areas but it’s important to remember this tool was never designed for month-over-month analysis of individual neighborhoods. These are a few of the problems in using this methodology if you are trying to decide how to price your home or when to buy: • It uses a three month moving average which tends to even out important monthly trends. In a volatile market, this can be crucial information. • It throws the baby out with the bathwater--if a sales pair shows too much gain it is discarded and assumed to have been extensively remodeled. • It can’t effectively analyze small niche markets since it requires large data samples to drive the algorithms. If you want to analyze real estate holdings in the US over a ten year period—this is your baby. The Case-Shiller methodology is fine for looking at macro trends in large market areas but it’s important to remember this tool was never designed for month-over-month analysis of individual neighborhoods.

These are a few of the problems in using this methodology if you are trying to decide how to price your home or when to buy:

• It uses a three month moving average which tends to even out important monthly trends. In a volatile market, this can be crucial information.
• It throws the baby out with the bathwater–if a sales pair shows too much gain it is discarded and assumed to have been extensively remodeled.
• It can’t effectively analyze small niche markets since it requires large data samples to drive the algorithms.

If you want to analyze real estate holdings in the US over a ten year period—this is your baby.

]]> By: Glenn Kelman http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html/comment-page-1#comment-4270 Glenn Kelman Thu, 30 Oct 2008 23:04:45 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html#comment-4270 The problem with Case-Shiller data Allan is that the pairs of home-sales it can consider are so sparse that it necessarily spans multiple sub-markets, like Silicon Valley, San Francisco and the East Bay... we'll look for other numbers to help answer your question. Check back soon... The problem with Case-Shiller data Allan is that the pairs of home-sales it can consider are so sparse that it necessarily spans multiple sub-markets, like Silicon Valley, San Francisco and the East Bay… we’ll look for other numbers to help answer your question. Check back soon…

]]> By: Allan http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html/comment-page-1#comment-4268 Allan Thu, 30 Oct 2008 22:39:52 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html#comment-4268 Any clue how the housing downturn has hit Silicon Valley? What about real estate closest to the big tech employers like Google and Apple? I'm hoping Case-Shiller does not include the Silicon Valley with San Francisco data. Any clue how the housing downturn has hit Silicon Valley? What about real estate closest to the big tech employers like Google and Apple? I’m hoping Case-Shiller does not include the Silicon Valley with San Francisco data.

]]> By: John Paul Murphy http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html/comment-page-1#comment-4266 John Paul Murphy Thu, 30 Oct 2008 19:28:27 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html#comment-4266 I have extensively studied the Case-Shiller index’s methodology, and that too many people are focusing on it as if it were a crystal ball about to reveal something magical. When looking at the new monthly Case-Shiller data one thing to remember is that the lag time for receiving and evaluating new home sales data in accordance with the Case-Schiller methodology makes month to month evaluations worthless… There are plenty of other aspects of the methodology that make it a questionable tool, if your interested please follow this link: http://blog.onboardinformatics.com/2008/10/the-good-the-bad-and-the-spcase-shiller-home-price-indices-2/ I have extensively studied the Case-Shiller index’s methodology, and that too many people are focusing on it as if it were a crystal ball about to reveal something magical. When looking at the new monthly Case-Shiller data one thing to remember is that the lag time for receiving and evaluating new home sales data in accordance with the Case-Schiller methodology makes month to month evaluations worthless… There are plenty of other aspects of the methodology that make it a questionable tool, if your interested please follow this link:

http://blog.onboardinformatics.com/2008/10/the-good-the-bad-and-the-spcase-shiller-home-price-indices-2/

]]> By: Glenn Kelman http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html/comment-page-1#comment-4260 Glenn Kelman Wed, 29 Oct 2008 04:07:39 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html#comment-4260 Lenore, I couldn't agree more about the disparity that has existed over the past year between the East Bay and San Francisco/Peninsula, but it seems to be narrowing somewhat, and I don't think problems in demand are entirely due to buyers' being unable to obtain loans; at least, this hasn't been an issue recently for our buyers. Just my take, though you might know more... Lenore, I couldn’t agree more about the disparity that has existed over the past year between the East Bay and San Francisco/Peninsula, but it seems to be narrowing somewhat, and I don’t think problems in demand are entirely due to buyers’ being unable to obtain loans; at least, this hasn’t been an issue recently for our buyers. Just my take, though you might know more…

]]> By: Lenore Wilkas http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html/comment-page-1#comment-4257 Lenore Wilkas Tue, 28 Oct 2008 21:56:22 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html#comment-4257 I find the Case-Shiller report to distort what is happening in the San Francisco market. The east bay area and counties adjacent to it, are in the tank but the west bay area is not. Yes, we have had a decline but not a dramatic one and part of the reason for a decline in sales has been the difficulty of well qualified buyers in obtaining loans. Until the banks trust one another and open up the lending market, we will not improve in sales. Prices have remained rather flat in our area, the San Francisco Peninsula. I find the Case-Shiller report to distort what is happening in the San Francisco market. The east bay area and counties adjacent to it, are in the tank but the west bay area is not. Yes, we have had a decline but not a dramatic one and part of the reason for a decline in sales has been the difficulty of well qualified buyers in obtaining loans. Until the banks trust one another and open up the lending market, we will not improve in sales. Prices have remained rather flat in our area, the San Francisco Peninsula.

]]> By: Wendy in Seattle http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html/comment-page-1#comment-4255 Wendy in Seattle Tue, 28 Oct 2008 16:27:41 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2008/10/that_was_a_doozy.html#comment-4255 No wonder! I have a condo listed with Redfin and I've definitely noticed an uptick in showings over the past 2 weeks. I've been on the market for 5 months, and in the past I'd averaged 1 showing every 2 weeks. Now I'm having 2-3 per week! No wonder! I have a condo listed with Redfin and I’ve definitely noticed an uptick in showings over the past 2 weeks. I’ve been on the market for 5 months, and in the past I’d averaged 1 showing every 2 weeks. Now I’m having 2-3 per week!

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