Comments on: Home-Buyers Getting Testy http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2009/09/home-buyers_getting_testy.html Redfin Corporate Blog Fri, 10 Feb 2012 02:35:37 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Broker to Congress: Don’t Extend the Credit (Just Keep Rates Low) | Redfin Corporate Blog http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2009/09/home-buyers_getting_testy.html/comment-page-1#comment-6673 Broker to Congress: Don’t Extend the Credit (Just Keep Rates Low) | Redfin Corporate Blog Sat, 31 Oct 2009 04:05:27 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/?p=1646#comment-6673 [...] government $43,000 or more. Our own experience suggest that this number is, if anything, low, as demand among first-timers has increased at Redfin only 11%. At least some of that increase is because, in the current market, 2nd-time home-buyers can’t [...] [...] government $43,000 or more. Our own experience suggest that this number is, if anything, low, as demand among first-timers has increased at Redfin only 11%. At least some of that increase is because, in the current market, 2nd-time home-buyers can’t [...]

]]> By: Clint http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2009/09/home-buyers_getting_testy.html/comment-page-1#comment-6540 Clint Sat, 26 Sep 2009 20:39:53 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/?p=1646#comment-6540 *Rates have to rise sooner rather than later (within the next year?). When rates go up, prices go down (generally) *Shadow inventory still waiting to be unleashed *Months of inventory still on the higher side *FTHB credit expiring at the end of November (though it may be extend by 6 months) *Unemployment hasn't peaked *Possible problems from Alt-A and Option Arms in 2010-2012 *Mortgage defaults haven't peaked Things don't look good for home prices in the next 2-3 years. It seems like were in a mini bubble right now due to the tax credit's possible expiration. There are a lot of crappy houses on the market right now since the good ones go under contract fast. Sellers were used to getting top dollar for their crappy homes. *Rates have to rise sooner rather than later (within the next year?). When rates go up, prices go down (generally)
*Shadow inventory still waiting to be unleashed
*Months of inventory still on the higher side
*FTHB credit expiring at the end of November (though it may be extend by 6 months)
*Unemployment hasn’t peaked
*Possible problems from Alt-A and Option Arms in 2010-2012
*Mortgage defaults haven’t peaked

Things don’t look good for home prices in the next 2-3 years. It seems like were in a mini bubble right now due to the tax credit’s possible expiration. There are a lot of crappy houses on the market right now since the good ones go under contract fast. Sellers were used to getting top dollar for their crappy homes.

]]> By: Glenn Kelman http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2009/09/home-buyers_getting_testy.html/comment-page-1#comment-6527 Glenn Kelman Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:17:20 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/?p=1646#comment-6527 Mike, I agree that prices could fall further but don't ever like to see "inevitable" and "prices" in the same sentence. It is also possible that prices will go up, though I don't think they will. What I am most confident about is not the direction of prices, but the direction of interest rates. Long-term the cost of money will increase faster than the cost of a house, simply because of monetary policy. Mike, I agree that prices could fall further but don’t ever like to see “inevitable” and “prices” in the same sentence. It is also possible that prices will go up, though I don’t think they will.

What I am most confident about is not the direction of prices, but the direction of interest rates. Long-term the cost of money will increase faster than the cost of a house, simply because of monetary policy.

]]> By: Mike http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2009/09/home-buyers_getting_testy.html/comment-page-1#comment-6526 Mike Thu, 24 Sep 2009 07:50:16 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/?p=1646#comment-6526 It scares me. It's inevitable that prices will fall further. The market is being held up by government subsidies - from the tax rebate to low interest rates, which are in part subsidized by the fed buying mortgages and flooding the market with cash. Eventually, the money spigot has to close. Interest rates have nowhere to go but up, the rebate has to end, and the fed has already announced that they will slow their buying of mortgages. When the subsidies end, either prices will have to fall or wages will have to rise for the market to stay where it is. I am not scared of being priced out. If prices rise, so will my income. The days of outrageous appreciation are over: now we are back to the boring days when prices rise and fall according to how much money we make. I want to buy a house, but I have no confidence that there will be any appreciation for quite some time. So the decision to buy is based solely my quality of life - which, frankly, is quite good right now. It scares me. It’s inevitable that prices will fall further. The market is being held up by government subsidies – from the tax rebate to low interest rates, which are in part subsidized by the fed buying mortgages and flooding the market with cash.

Eventually, the money spigot has to close. Interest rates have nowhere to go but up, the rebate has to end, and the fed has already announced that they will slow their buying of mortgages. When the subsidies end, either prices will have to fall or wages will have to rise for the market to stay where it is.

I am not scared of being priced out. If prices rise, so will my income. The days of outrageous appreciation are over: now we are back to the boring days when prices rise and fall according to how much money we make. I want to buy a house, but I have no confidence that there will be any appreciation for quite some time. So the decision to buy is based solely my quality of life – which, frankly, is quite good right now.

]]> By: Tweets that mention Home-Buyers Getting Testy | Redfin Corporate Blog, Home-Buyers Getting Testy | Redfin Corporate Blog -- Topsy.com http://blog.redfin.com/blog/2009/09/home-buyers_getting_testy.html/comment-page-1#comment-6493 Tweets that mention Home-Buyers Getting Testy | Redfin Corporate Blog, Home-Buyers Getting Testy | Redfin Corporate Blog -- Topsy.com Sat, 19 Sep 2009 00:27:46 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/?p=1646#comment-6493 [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Jonathan D. Nicholas. Jonathan D. Nicholas said: Home-Buyers Getting Testy http://bit.ly/LPYp6 [...] [...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Jonathan D. Nicholas. Jonathan D. Nicholas said: Home-Buyers Getting Testy http://bit.ly/LPYp6 [...]

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