Redfin Real-Time Home Price Tracker: June Prices Increased 3.0%, But Sales Slowing

Redfin is publishing today The Redfin Real-Time Home Price Tracker, the U.S.’s first broad analysis of prices each month; this is the only report that combines data from the local Multiple Listing Services used by real estate agents to list homes and record sales, as well as public records data.

Across 19 major metropolitan markets, June prices increased 3.0% year over year, and 2.6% month over month. The number of homes for sale declined 25.3% from June 2011 to June 2012, and by 2.4% since May.  Sales increased 4.3% over last year, but actually slipped 1.1% since May. The percentage of listings that sold within 14 days of their debut remained steady since May at 28.5%.

Together with Redfin’s other Real-Time Reports, the Price Tracker describes a strengthening market :

• Redfin’s Real-Time Home-Buyer Survey, based on data collected from nearly 1,500 active home-buyers, found that 58% of buyers believe 2012 prices will rise, up from 34% only three months prior.
• Redfin’s Real-Time Demand Pulse, based on thousands of tour requests and signed offers from Redfin’s own customers, reported that the number of Redfin customers touring properties actually increased 2% from May to June, at a time of year when touring typically begins to decline.

Prices in June rose year over year for the second straight month, but the true test lies ahead. For the first time in five years, we’re seeing sellers enter the market to take advantage of rising demand, not just out of sheer necessity. We thus expect listing prices to increase, even as employment remains weak and Europe’s debt crisis continues. In competitive markets like the San Francisco Bay Area, buyers will likely rise to the bait. Elsewhere sellers may balk, and the market may falter.

Prices Up 3.0% Year Over Year
Across the 19 markets Redfin measures, 16 showed annual price increases. Prices increased the most in Phoenix with a 28.7% increase since June 2011 and in Denver with a 9.3% increase. In New York’s Long Island, prices fell the most, at 4.4% year over year:

Inventory Down 25.3% Year Over Year
The reason prices are largely increasing is simple: there aren’t enough homes for consumers to buy. Throughout the major California cities, inventory is down nearly 50% or more.

As you would expect, fast sales were most common in California, where inventory is low:

Sales Volume Up 4.3% Over Last Year, But Down 1.1% Since May
Sales may take place quickly but the number of closings has grown only modestly since last year, probably due to a lack of inventory. Closings of single-family homes are up 4.3% since last year but down 1.1% since May. Some of the biggest recent drops in sales volume are in the places where inventory is in shortest supply: Sacramento, San Jose, Southern California’s Inland Empire and Denver.

About the Real-Time Home Price Tracker
Redfin’s monthly report on home prices, inventory levels and sales volume is an up-to-date, accurate portrait of the U.S. real estate market, coming weeks or months ahead of other market reports. As a broker with access to dozens of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) used by real estate agents to list properties and record sales, Redfin gets data within minutes of a sale, pending sale or listing activation, well before any government, media or analytics organization. Using MLS fields, Redfin is able to distinguish houses from condominiums and townhouses — which often sell for less money.

To validate the accuracy of the data and to account for sales not handled by a real estate agent, Redfin compares MLS data with county records as they become available, using sophisticated algorithms to identify and resolve disparities about square footage or price for each address. Data at the local and neighborhood level are available in a spreadsheet, and the report methodology is available as an Adobe document.