The Redfin Real-Time Price Tracker is a monthly report on home prices, sales and inventory across 19 U.S. markets, published weeks before any other index, based on the local databases used directly by real estate agents to list properties and record sales.
Despite a continued seasonal slowdown in home sales, national home prices increased again between October and November, rising 2.2 percent in the month to a level 10.1 percent higher than November 2011. With sales and prices continuing to trend up from last year, it’s no surprise that home builder confidence has risen to a 6-year high, construction spending is climbing, mortgage applications have been trending up throughout 2012, and mortgage delinquencies are falling.
The key metrics across 19 major metropolitan markets are:
- November home sales were up 7.8% from a year ago, and down 14.8% from October. This was a larger drop than is usual for November (last year sales fell just 3.7%), but only because September to October saw an unusual month-to-month increase.
- Home prices in October increased 10.1% year over year, and were up another 2.2% month over month.
- The number of homes for sale declined 30.1% from November 2011 to November 2012 (increasing from the 29.4% drop in October), and declined by 6.5% since October.
- The percentage of listings that sold within 14 days of their debut was flat at 28.2% in November.
The Redfin Real-Time Demand Pulse, a summary of the number of Redfin customers touring homes and writing offers, predicted more than a month ago that U.S. November sales volume would be “weaker than October, although still slightly above last year’s levels in most markets.” Sales did in fact decrease 14.8 percent from October, but still came in above 2011 in 14 of 19 markets.
Inventory just keeps on falling, as it is likely to continue to do through December. In November the number of homes on the market was down over 30 percent from a year earlier—the largest drop so far in 2012.
Sales Volume Dips, Remains Above 2011
After an unusually strong October, sales in November fell back to a more normal level for this time of year, but remained above 2011 volumes in all but five markets. The biggest gains in sales came in Sacramento, where sales were up 39 percent from a year earlier, and Ventura, which saw gains of 35 percent. Sales fell the most in Long Island (down 26 percent) and Las Vegas (down 16 percent).
|Metropolitan Statistical Area||# of Houses Sold||Yearly Change||Monthly Change|
Home Prices Up from 2011 in All 19 Cities
Nationally, home prices in November were 10.1 percent higher than a year earlier. This is the eighth month in a row that national prices have increased year-over-year. Meanwhile, month-over-month prices increased another 2.2 percent. All nineteen cities we measure had higher prices than a year earlier, two more cities than in October. Sixteen of the 19 metro areas that Redfin measures saw month-over-month increases in November, up from fourteen metros showing an increase in October.
The two cities with the biggest price gains from a year ago were yet again Phoenix (up 34 percent) and San Jose (up 23 percent). Long Island saw the largest month-over-month decline in prices, at just a 0.6 percent drop. Seattle fell the second-most at 0.4 percent.
|Metropolitan Statistical Area||Median $/SqFt||Yearly Change||Monthly Change|
Inventory Down 30% Year Over Year
Not surprisingly, November brought no relief to buyers hoping for some increases in selection. The total number of homes for sale was down 30.1 percent in November compared to a year earlier, falling to fewer than 180,000 total listings across the 19 metro areas covered by the report. Inventory has now been falling year-over-year for 21 months in a row.
|Metropolitan Statistical Area||# of Houses for Sale||Yearly Change||Monthly Change|
Fast-Selling Listings Plateaued in November
From November 1 through 26 (14 days before the data was collected), 28.2 percent of new listings were under contract in two weeks or less, virtually no change from October. We had expected this measure, which indicates the level of competitiveness for buyers, to decrease as the market cooled off in the fall and winter, but so far it has held steady, offering no comfort for frustrated buyers trying to take their time to find the right home.
|Metropolitan Statistical Area||% Sold within 14 Days of Debut|
About the Real-Time Home Price Tracker
Redfin’s monthly report on home prices, inventory levels and sales volume is an up-to-date, accurate portrait of the U.S. real estate market, coming weeks or months ahead of other market reports. As a broker with access to dozens of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs) used by real estate agents to list properties and record sales, Redfin gets data within minutes of a sale, pending sale or listing activation, well before any government, media or analytics organization. Using MLS fields, Redfin is able to distinguish houses from condominiums and townhouses — which often sell for less money.
To validate the accuracy of the data and to account for sales not handled by a real estate agent, Redfin compares MLS data with county records as they become available, using sophisticated algorithms to identify and resolve disparities about square footage or price for each address. Full data may be downloaded in a spreadsheet, and the report methodology is available as an Adobe document.