Case-Shiller: Seasonal Slide in Home Prices Continues

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Boston area* as of October:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between September and October (vs. eighteen from August to September): Only Phoenix saw an increase. Wait, Phoenix? Yup, Phoenix. Atlanta fell the most in October (again), falling a whopping 5.0% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Boston’s tiers fell in October, with the middle tier taking the biggest hit. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.5%, the middle tier fell 1.0%, and the high tier decreased 0.8%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just four months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re Showing A Lot More Skin in Boston

Just like Cheers, Redfin strives to be the place where everybody knows your name.  But now, without even knowing your name, we’re shedding a layer and showing you a lot more information about the homes that interest you.

You may have noticed that we released an iPad app and the Redfin Home Report this week.  We’re thrilled that we were able to make another upgrade just for our Boston customers.  We’re now able to show you a lot more information about homes in the Boston area than we have ever been able to before without asking you to register on our site.

Some of the details we’ve been dying to show you for years and are now able to share without asking you to sign in include:

• Marketing Remarks
• Year Built
• Property Size
• Days on Redfin
• Parking Information
• Homeowners Association Information
• Tax Information

And we’ve highlighted the new additions here:

But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t register on our site! For the last several months, we’ve been collecting Redfin Agent Insights, comments left by agents who have seen a home in person. Now, at long last, we can share them with our registered customers in Boston. You’ll know one of our local agents has seen a home and commented on it by the little yellow star on the map. Scroll down the home details page to see who has commented on the home and click to have their notes emailed to you immediately.

Soon, we hope to be able to share our agents’ comments with you directly on the home details page like we do in most of the other markets we serve. Thanks for your patience as we keep pushing to do what we love most: share as much information with you as we possibly can that is straight from the multiple listing service and our agents.

Should I Wait Until Spring to List My Home? – Boston Edition

Over on the national blog, we just posted another big analysis of hundreds of thousands of listings and sales. Here are the numbers for Boston, where winter is still a winning time to list your home for a quick sale, a better chance of selling, and a better price:

Case-Shiller: Get Ready for a Long Winter for Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Boston area* as of September:

Seventeen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between August and September (vs. eleven from July to August): Only Washington DC, New York, and Portland rose. Atlanta fell the most in September, falling a whopping 5.9% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Boston’s low and high tier both lost ground this month, but the middle tier rose slightly. Month to month, the low tier was down 1.9%, the middle tier rose 0.3%, and the high tier decreased 0.9%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just three months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now only three have avoided falling into the red.

Read the rest of this entry »

Case-Shiller: Summer Ends Early for Boston Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – August data is released in October).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Boston area* as of August:

Ten of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between July and August (vs. two from June to July): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Washington DC. saw the biggest increase this month, followed closely behind by Detroit and Chicago.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Boston’s low and high tiers dropped a bit, while the middle tier bumped up just a tad. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.2%, the middle tier rose 0.04%, and the high tier decreased 0.3%.

Here’s a new chart for you. In this one, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

The effects of 2009′s homebuyer tax credit are dramatically visible in this chart, as is the fairly strong spring we had this year. The sudden drop-off of month-over-month gains in August’s data is interesting, since during a “normal” year we wouldn’t expect to see this many cities in the red until December or January. I think this indicates that there is still quite a bit of weakness in home prices.

Read the rest of this entry »

September Insider Report: Sparse Sales Send a Chill Through the Market

Greetings, Redfinnians!

This month we rolled out a new and improved version of our monthly insider report. “But where is it,” you ask. Ahh, well this new report is available via email-only, and was sent out to a group of registered users who have saved searches or favorites in select neighborhoods.

We’ll be expanding the report to include more neighborhoods every month, so if you want to make sure you get it when it comes to your ‘hood, just make sure you’re signed up for our newsletters (check the “Redfin Announcements” box in your Account Settings), and save a favorite home or a search. That’s it, you’re signed up!

Here on the blog we will continue posting the “lite” version of our monthly report, including our Redfin Heat Index, the heat map, and the hottest / coldest neighborhoods for the foreseeable future. So, let’s get into it.

First up is our national Redfin Heat Index* ranking table at right. Boston fell quite dramatically in the national rankings from August to September. A combination of prices flip-flopping to year-over-year losses and months of supply increasing led to a whopping 37-point drop in Boston’s Heat Index, knocking the city from #3 in August way down to #13 in September. Ouch!

Washington DC continues to be the hottest market in the nation, while Long Island is still pulling up the rear with falling prices and a dramatic 11.1 months of supply. Yikes!

Next up, let’s have a look at an update to our interactive Redfin Heat Index map broken down by zip code, based on September data. Note that we only calculate the Redfin Heat Index for zip codes with at least 20 sales in September 2011 and September 2010, and as we head into the winter that means more and more zip codes will be grey with “not enough data,” but you can still click them to see sale and listing stats for each zip code. If a zip code is missing from the map, there weren’t even five sales in that zip code in the month.

All righty, that’s it for this month. Stay tuned as our new and improved local Insider Report makes its way to your neighborhood.

As usual, you can download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself. Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * 7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

Case-Shiller: Summer is Kind to Boston Home Prices

Before we get going with this month’s Case-Shiller post, I’d like to apologize for the lack of an update last month. Long story short, this particular duty slipped through the cracks while I was out on leave. We heard from a number of readers who were lamenting the missing post. Rest assured, we have heard you and it will not happen again!

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – July data is released in September).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Boston area* as of July:

Only two of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between June and July (vs. none from May to June): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Weirdly, Detroit saw the biggest increase, followed by Minneapolis.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Boston’s tiers saw a boost in July, with the low tier leading the pack. Month to month, the low tier was up 3.0%, the middle tier rose 0.9%, and the high tier increased 0.3%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Boston Market Woes & Whoahs! (July 2011 Insider)

Greetings Redfinnians,

The summer sales wave has crested and not in July as we had expected. Turns out, June was this year’s high water mark. Not surprising, but it’s certainly off from previous years where July has been the monster month for home buying. We’re now seeing sales trailing off in most areas, while inventory levels are still quite high for this late in the summer. Since everyone goes on vacation in August and leaves behind lots of homes for sale to sit in the heat, we expect prices will likely come down through the fall. This is good news if you are looking to buy and bad news if you are trying to sell.

To see what’s happening in the areas where you’re looking at homes, just download our big spreadsheet full of numbers at the city, zip code and neighborhood level. In lieu of all the data tables this month, we decided to spend a little time focusing on everything that’s happening in the economy and what it means for you.

Navigate the Wall Street Craziness With a Great Mortgage Broker

The stock market’s wild ride is likely to have an effect on home buyers’ purchasing power, as many buyers have their down payment funds tied up in the financial markets. That certainly means the 20% you thought you had last Friday is now less than that today. We have already heard from clients who have had to change their plans because of this loss of value. “We see some of our clients pulling back from their search as the market tries to sort itself out” says Nancy Roos, leader of Redfin’s Lexington area team. “A couple I was recently working with saw the gift funds they were going to receive from a parent lose a significant part of its value and therefore disappear for their purchase. People don’t want to take a loss right now when the possibility of the stock market returning does exist”. Now you don’t lose until you sell, but with an impending purchase that option becomes unavoidable.

Our advice: If you’re in the process or just beginning, make sure to speak with your mortgage broker about getting your loan approved or getting yourself pre-approved for the next move, especially if your finances have changed from this downturn.

Fed to Keep Mortgage Rates Low

The only slightly more shocking occurrence is the Fed stating that they are going to hold rates low until at least 2013. This could be positive news for obtaining a mortgage at a historical rate, but may also mean a lot of home owners may want to refinance to take advantage of low rates, which always gum up new home purchase processes, even though the banks always claim new home purchases take precedence.

Our advice:

1. Find a local mortgage broker: do your research and work with someone with a solid record of service, especially as rates jump around wildly with the unstable economy. Most importantly, choose a local broker practicing in MA who understands the process. We’ve seen out of state lenders promising our clients low rates, but then the loan falls apart because they don’t understand the nuances of the MA loan process. “Every time I have had a nightmare situation around obtaining a commitment letter and therefore an approved loan, it has almost always been with an out of state lender,” says Hannah Driscoll, team lead for the Metro Boston area. “I often tell people, whether you use Redfin or not, please take my advice on out of state lenders; the small amount of savings they promise, even if they do follow through with it, will make your purchase 10 times as stressful and prone to failure than a proven local lender”. Service is the most important part of the equation so make your decision based on the success rate, recommendations and the service commitment of your lender. Make sure you like your lender before committing as you won’t be able to change at the last minute and get a loan approved in a shortened amount of time.
2. Use proven funds: as you shop around for mortgage rates, make sure to use funds that are not locked up in an unstable market. If you are ready to make the move, sell soon and hold in your checking account. Sounds painful but drastic swings in your assets will affect your ability to secure financing.
3. Stay involved: once your offer on a home is accepted, stay very involved with your loan officer during the approval process and make sure that the appraisal happens as soon as possible. Don’t take anything for granted and assume nothing. If you’re a buyer, you’ll need to provide various documents throughout the loan approval process, so stay connected via email and phone in the week leading up to your loan approval to make sure all the ducks are in a row for your loan to go through smoothly.

Feel free to reach out to me or any Redfin Boston agent or partner lender with questions about your own situation. We’re happy to help in any way. You can also leave a comment about your take on the market below.

Enjoy the rest of summer!

Best,
Alex Coon, Boston Market Manager

Our Day at the Boys & Girls Club of Dorchester

Recently, the Boston-area Redfin office spent some time volunteering our time with the Dorchester Boys & Girls Club.

For those of you who haven’t experienced this incredible organization, the Boys & Girls Club provides area youth with much-needed activities in a positive environment. In this particularly violent and hot summer, these brave people truly make a difference in the lives of many children through their dedication and day-in, day-out hard work.

We spent a humid day clearing out the basement and storage spaces of the club, getting rid of trash and organizing unused donations. With the help of many hands, we made quick work of the debris. The center was ramping up for their busy summer season and readying the club for the summer session, during which it hosts over 250 children all week long. The facilities are truly incredible, and we were just happy to have been able to help out.

This is the second time the Boston Redfin office has volunteered with the Boys & Girls Club, and we want to thank the organization for giving us another great opportunity to come together and strengthen our team while doing a little good in the world.

We plan to return again in the future — please email me if you would like to know more about the Boys & Girls Club, and to find out how you can help this worthy cause.

Five Redfin Agents Rank in the Top 10 Boston Area Buyers Agents