Case-Shiller: Boston Prices Still Falling in Moderation

It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Boston area* as of December:

December 2008
Month to Month: Down 1.3%
Year to Year: Down 7.0%
Change from Peak: Down 16.1% in 39 months

The following chart shows the Boston HPI scaled such that the September 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Boston HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (May 2003).

According to the Case-Shiller index, as of December home prices in Boston have “rewound” five and a half years.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Boston’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

December’s price drop in Boston was less severe than other cities across the country, which we should all expect by now, since that seems to be the regular pattern here since the market peak.

*[Case-Shiller defines Boston as the entire Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all or part of the following counties: Essex MA, Middlesex MA, Norfolk MA, Plymouth MA, Suffolk MA, Rockingham NH, and Strafford NH.]