Case-Shiller: Home Prices Drop Slow and Steady to Early ’03 Levels
Let’s check in on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – January data is released in March).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Boston area* as of January:
January 2009
Month to Month: Down 1.5%
Year to Year: Down 7.3%
Change from Peak: Down 17.4% in 40 months
The following chart shows the Boston area HPI scaled such that the September 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Boston area HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (April 2003).
Price declines in the last few months of data have actually been relatively mild in and around Boston, compared to what we’re seeing in other markets around the country. In addition, the drop from December to January held a pretty steady rate that Boston has seen since about September. At least it’s a form of “stability,” right?
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare the Boston area’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Boston still stands out from the pack with one of the smallest overall declines, despite having been falling the longest. If anyone has any theories as to why that might be, let’s hear them in the comments.
*[Case-Shiller defines Boston as the entire Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all or part of the following counties: Essex MA, Middlesex MA, Norfolk MA, Plymouth MA, Suffolk MA, Rockingham NH, and Strafford NH.]
