Archive for June, 2009
June 30, 2009
It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, plus seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – April data is released in June).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Boston area* as of April:
April 2009
Month to Month: Up 0.4%
Year to Year: Down 7.7%
Change from Peak: Down 19.7% in 43 months
The following chart shows the Boston area HPI scaled such that the September 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Boston area HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (September 2002).
It looks like we’re kicking off the usual spring / summer price bounce in Boston home prices. If the past three years are a guide, we can expect to see slight price gains in the Case-Shiller data for the next 3-4 months, regardless of the direction of the economy or the housing market as a whole.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Boston’s performance to other areas across the country:
To recap, we have seen the following interventions in recent months meant to boost the housing market:
- $8k first-time buyer tax credit
- 4.5% – 5% mortgage rates
- various moratoriums on foreclosures
- numerous federal programs encouraging loan workouts
The apparent result of this host of actions has been a flattening to very slight upticks seen in the chart above, in a month that is historically one of the strongest of the year for the real estate market. I guess you can color me underwhelmed.
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Due to the strong seasonality of Boston’s Case-Shiller data, we won’t really have a good idea of whether price drops are done in Boston until the fall numbers start to roll in. Until then, enjoy the ride!
*[Case-Shiller defines Boston as the entire Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all or part of the following counties: Essex MA, Middlesex MA, Norfolk MA, Plymouth MA, Suffolk MA, Rockingham NH, and Strafford NH.]
June 30, 2009
Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.
The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.
For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.
First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:
Of the 161 cities/towns we ranked in the Boston area this month, 89 had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more.
Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten Boston area neighborhoods for price reductions:
Of the 56 neighborhoods we ranked in the Boston area this month, 9 had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. On average, the neighborhoods with more price reductions had lower closed prices per square foot.
The general trend in Boston looks to be heading slightly toward less price reductions, however every city and neighborhood is of course different.
June 16, 2009
Let’s check in on our stats once again and find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from last month in Redfin’s Boston service area and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.
Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:
The overall discount dropped a bit in June from our previous update in April, down to 4.5% from 5.1%. Down in Duxbury (02332) buyers are getting the biggest discounts, knocking nearly 10% off the average list price.
Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:
In the Lowell Highlands (01851) and south Boston just east of the Franklin Park Zoo (02121) sellers are actually getting more than list price on average.
Is the zip code you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and hit the “FullSummary” sheet.
Of the 3,008 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 336 homes sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 125 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.
June 8, 2009
According to the MLSPIN, the database for real estate transactions and listings for Massachusetts, Redfin agent Hannah Driscoll ranks third in Eastern & Central Massachusetts in May among agents who represented home-buyers of condominiums, single- and multi-family properties based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount. In May, Hannah closed 6 deals totalling $3,377,900.
Even with taking a couple of weeks off, Sean Valiton closed 3 deals worth $1,328,000 and ranks 40th. Adam Welling started working for us in late April and he’s worked on 40 signed offers. None of have closed yet, but with it taking over 50 days for transactions in Massachusetts to close, we don’t expect to see any until June.
Redfin clients work with some of the most active and successful agents in Massachusetts. Redfin agents are experts in the current real estate market and they know what it takes to help our clients buy the homes they want.
Our Clients Love Our Fanatical Service
We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in May from our Boston clients:
- 18 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, down from 24 in April.
- All 18 of those clients, or 100%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, the same rate from April.
In these surveys, Redfin asks customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.
More People Are Making Offers On Homes
In May, our Boston clients were busy touring homes and making offers:
We also had a great home-buying class in May. Twenty-six people came to our Somerville office to learn about the home-buying process and meet our agents. Check out the slide deck from the class.
It’s Taking 52 Days To Close On A Home
In May, it took 3 days longer for our Boston clients to close on their homes in May than it did in April:
- For our clients who bought re-sales, the average time from initial agreement on terms to the close of the deal was 52 days, up from 49 days in April.
- 0 of our clients failed to get financing, down from 2 in April.
- 6 of our clients’ deals failed the home inspection, up from 2 in April.
- Of our closed deals, the average discount off list price for homes sold was 4.08%, up from 3.30% in April.
Look For Our June Report
We’ll be back next month with our analysis of the June numbers. Let us know what you’d like to see in that report.
