Case-Shiller: Boston’s Yearly Price Bounce Begins
It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, plus seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – April data is released in June).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Boston area* as of April:
April 2009
Month to Month: Up 0.4%
Year to Year: Down 7.7%
Change from Peak: Down 19.7% in 43 months
The following chart shows the Boston area HPI scaled such that the September 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Boston area HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (September 2002).
It looks like we’re kicking off the usual spring / summer price bounce in Boston home prices. If the past three years are a guide, we can expect to see slight price gains in the Case-Shiller data for the next 3-4 months, regardless of the direction of the economy or the housing market as a whole.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Boston’s performance to other areas across the country:
To recap, we have seen the following interventions in recent months meant to boost the housing market:
- $8k first-time buyer tax credit
- 4.5% – 5% mortgage rates
- various moratoriums on foreclosures
- numerous federal programs encouraging loan workouts
The apparent result of this host of actions has been a flattening to very slight upticks seen in the chart above, in a month that is historically one of the strongest of the year for the real estate market. I guess you can color me underwhelmed.
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Due to the strong seasonality of Boston’s Case-Shiller data, we won’t really have a good idea of whether price drops are done in Boston until the fall numbers start to roll in. Until then, enjoy the ride!
*[Case-Shiller defines Boston as the entire Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all or part of the following counties: Essex MA, Middlesex MA, Norfolk MA, Plymouth MA, Suffolk MA, Rockingham NH, and Strafford NH.]
