Case-Shiller: Winter Harshest on Middle Tier Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Boston area* as of December:

Ninteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between November and December (the same as October to November). Washington DC’s 0.4% increase was the only month-to-month gain. In November there were four markets posting year-over-year gains. In December that number dropped to two: San Diego and Washington DC.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

The high tier actually gained a little ground in December, while the middle tier lost the most. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.4%, the middle tier fell 1.0%, and the high tier increased 0.2%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Boston: Snowbound and Down (Jan. 2011 Insider Report)

Welcome to the first ever Insider Report for the Boston area. This is your peek behind the scenes at what is really going on in the local real estate space — we’ll tell it like it is using on-the-ground insights backed up with cold hard stats from the industry’s most comprehensive database of broker- and owner-listed homes, as well as public records and our own brokerage activity. We hate sales mumbo jumbo as much as you do, so we’ll leave that part out. If you’d like to receive the report via email each month, just sign up!

Now, without further introduction, onto the report!

Snow, snow, and more snow! Winter is always harsh on Boston’s real estate market, but this year has been a particularly dreadful nightmare. “I think everybody is pretty tired of the snow” says Alex Coon, Redfin’s Market Manager in Boston. “The over abundance of frozen water is really wreaking havoc with demand, closings and the inventory as things have been hard to get into to, leaking and generally snowbound.”

Inventory is on the rise and sale prices are creeping up in and around Boston, but the especially harsh winter weather is putting a serious damper on sales. Read on to get the latest read on the market as we serve up a one-two punch of data and front lines insights from your local Redfin team.

More Homes to Choose From

Change in # of Houses for Sale on January 31st 2011

While inventory is climbing across much of the Boston area, Cambridge has seen a particularly big increase year-over-year in condo inventory. Adam Welling, Redfin Lead Agent and Somerville resident has certainly felt the increase in inventory. “Cambridge has always been short on number of available properties, but lately I am hearing from lots of customers that they feel they have more homes to choose from right now.” That trend is not likely to last long though, as things traditionally pick up quickly when the weather improves. “I have seen a real increase in the number of condo conversions and re-sales,” said Adam. “Renovations are on the rise as well.” Adam suspects the inventory will tighten up quickly when the weather breaks and is already seeing a sharp increase in multiple bids situations.

Good New Inventory Gets All the Sales Attention

Change in # of Houses That Sold in January 2011

Hannah Driscoll, Redfin’s Lead Agent for Boston, has seen a lot of buyers waiting for new inventory and although touring has stayed strong in the face of the awful weather it has certainly taken its toll month over month. “What’s really been happening is when the sun is shining and people get moving, I have seen multiple bids on all of the good properties that were new to the market. We are all looking forward to more inventory and less snow!” If demand grows as the snow melts and inventory doesn’t rapidly pick up it looks like we’re shaping up to have a competitive summer.

Prices Stable in Boston, Shaky Further Out

Change in Median Price of Houses That Sold in January 2011

Median price in both Boston and Cambridge have stayed relatively stable and even increased in January. It certainly feels like we may be entering a time of market stability, at least around condos in the metropolitan area. The weather has battered the market and inventory but the subsequent cabin fever, creeping interest rates and improving unemployment all seem to point towards another brisk and hectic spring. Just no more snow, please.

Want to know what’s happening in your neighborhood? Download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. To learn more about how we calculate these numbers, check out our methodology page. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

Best,

Alex Coon
Boston Market Manager

Redfin Agents Rank in the Top 2% of all Boston-Area Buyers Agents

All Redfin Boston agents made the top 100, with six local agents ranking in the top 0.3% of the 6,634 buyers agents in Eastern Massachusetts that closed deals in the fourth quarter of 2010.

We pulled these numbers from MLSPIN, the database for real estate transactions and listings for Massachusetts, and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes, condominiums and multi-family buildings in October, November, & December 2010 based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.

When you work with Redfin, you get great customer service while working with some of the most successful and active agents in the region.

Most agents spend around 80% of their time finding new clients, but Redfin agents don’t need to prospect since folks come to us on Redfin.com. As a result, Redfin agents can spend all their time serving clients: answering questions, hosting home tours, writing and negotiating offers, and listing homes. Redfin agents are experts in today’s market because they spend more of their time serving clients, not making sales calls.

Our Clients Love Our Service

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in the past three months from our clients in Eastern Massachusetts:

• 117 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online
• 107 of those clients, or 97%, would recommend Redfin to a friend

In these surveys, Redfin asks customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend. To learn more about how we survey our clients and calculate the customer ratings, check out our FAQ on agent reviews.

*These numbers do not include deals never listed on the MLS