Case-Shiller: Prices Begin Falling Again as Stimulus Wears Off

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Keep in mind that all of the charts in this series of posts are based on the seasonally-adjusted data provided by S&P. For the full source data behind this post, plus non-seasonally adjusted data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website (requires free registration). For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Chicago area* as of November:

Fourteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between October and November (three more than October). Detroit, Washington, Miami, Tampa, Chicago, and New York all marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at Chicago’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

Chicago’s low tier continued to show slight gains, moving up 0.7% in the month, but the middle and high tiers both fell, dropping 1.0% and 0.7%, respectively.

Here’s a look at the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month figures in Redfin’s markets, with annotations of the beginning and the original end of the homebuyer tax credit, so you can see that I’m not just making stuff up when I say that the effects of the stimulus are wearing off.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

San Francisco, San Diego, and Los Angeles still appear to be on the rise, but elsewhere in the country, the summer 2009 price boost seems to have run out of steam.

*[Case-Shiller defines Chicago as the entire Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division, which includes all of the following counties: Cook IL, DeKalb IL, Du Page IL, Grundy IL, Kane IL, Kendal IL, McHenry IL, and Will IL.]

Two Redfin Chicago Buyer’s Agents are in the Top 1% for December 2009

Our Chicago-area agents closed out 2009 with a bang!

Of the 3,900+ Chicago-area buyers’ agents who closed a deal in December 2009, Redfin had two in the top 1%:

In December, the following Chicago agents also closed deals:

*Layching’s site profile is under construction.

When you work with Redfin, you get great customer service while working with some of the best agents in the region. Our agents know what’s going on in the market right now because they spend all of their time serving clients: touring homes, writing offers and closing deals.

We pulled these numbers from MRED, the database for real estate transactions and listings in Illinois and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in Cook, Lake & DuPage Counties based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.

100% Customer Satisfaction for the Second Month in a Row

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in December from our clients in the Chicago area:

• 22 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, the same as November.
• All 22 of those clients, or 100%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, the same as in November.

We ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend. To learn more about how we survey our clients and calculate the customer ratings, check out our FAQ on agent reviews.

Biggest Discounts by City in November

Let’s check in on our stats to find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the charts below, we have taken all sales data from the month of November in Redfin’s Chicago service area and sorted it by city.

Methodology
First, we compiled a list of every sale that took place in the month, calculating each sale’s sale-to-list ratio (based on the final list price). Next, we simply take an average of every individual sale’s sale-to-list ratio to calculate an entire area’s sale-to-list ratio. Any sales that came in with a sale-to-list ratio above 150% or below 50% are excluded from the calculation, and areas with fewer than twenty sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings. Interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

Here are the top ten areas with the largest overall discount:

The overall discount dropped a bit from our last update (based on August sales), moving from 5.5% to 4.9%.

Here are the ten areas with the smallest discounts:

Over in Cicero, homes are actually selling for slightly more than asking price on average. In the 79 areas we ranked, the median discount was 5.5%.

Is the area you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and check out the appropriate “Full” sheet.

Of the 5,765 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 2,694 homes sold for 5% or more off the asking price, while 418 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.

Case-Shiller: Prices Mostly Flat as Tax Credit Neared Expiration

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Keep in mind that all of the charts in this series of posts are based on the seasonally-adjusted data provided by S&P. For the full source data behind this post, plus non-seasonally adjusted data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website (requires free registration). For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Chicago area* as of October:

Eleven of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between September and October (the same number as September). Dallas, Atlanta, New York, Boston, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, and Tampa all marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at Chicago’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

The low tier got a serious boost in October, shooting up 1.2% in just a single month (an annual rate of 14%!). Oddly, the middle and high tiers dropped by almost as much, falling 0.8% and 1.0% respectively.

Here’s a look at the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month figures in Redfin’s markets (welcome Atlanta!), with annotations of the beginning and the original end of the homebuyer tax credit, so you can see that I’m not just making stuff up when I say that the effect of the tax credit on home prices appears to be waning.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

The excellent economics news site Calculated Risk posted a great roundup on Sunday of 2009’s various government programs intended to prop up home prices, and when each is currently allegedly going to end. With the housing credit expiring next spring, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases ending in the first quarter, and tighter lending standards from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) on the way, home prices still may be poised to fall a bit further before all is said and done.

*[Case-Shiller defines Chicago as the entire Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division, which includes all of the following counties: Cook IL, DeKalb IL, Du Page IL, Grundy IL, Kane IL, Kendal IL, McHenry IL, and Will IL.]

Mark Reitman is the #9 Buyers’ Agent

Our Chicago-area agents had another great month in November!

Of the 4,400+ buyers’ agents who closed a deal, Redfin had two in the top 3%:

When you work with Redfin, you get great customer service while working with some of the best agents in the region. Our agents know what’s going on in the market right now because they spend all of their time serving clients: touring homes, writing offers and closing deals.

We pulled these numbers from MRED, the database for real estate transactions and listings in Illinois and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in Cook, Lake & DuPage Counties based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.

Our Clients Love Our Service

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in October from our clients in the Chicago area:

• 22 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, up from 15 in October.
• All 22 of those clients, or 100%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, the same as in October.

We ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend. To learn more about how we survey our clients and calculate the customer ratings, check out our FAQ on agent reviews.

November (belated) City/Neighborhood Price Reductions

Let’s have another look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.

The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days (as of 11.16.2009). Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.

For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.

First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:

Of the 171 cities/towns we ranked in the Chicago area this month, 123 had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. The median price-reduced ratio was 54.5%.

Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten neighborhoods for price reductions:

Of the 93 neighborhoods we ranked this month, 43 had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. The median price-reduced ratio was 48.4%.

Download the full spreadsheet to check where your neighborhood came in (assuming your neighborhood had enough sales to be ranked).

Case-Shiller: Effects of Tax Credit Appear to be Waning

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Keep in mind that all of the charts in this series of posts are based on the seasonally-adjusted data provided by S&P. For the full source data behind this post, plus non-seasonally adjusted data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website (requires free registration). For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Chicago area* as of September:

Eleven of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between August and September (down from sixteen in August). New York, Boston, Charlotte, Seattle, Dallas, Portland, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Cleveland all marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at Chicago’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

All three of Chicago’s tiers increased in September, but the rate of increase has definitely slowed from just a few months ago as the effects of the tax credit begin to wear off.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

With the tax credit having been extended until the spring, and pretty much all the benefit having been squeezed from low rates and tax giveaways, it seems likely that we will see some price deterioration in the next few months as we head through winter. Beyond that is anybody’s guess.

*[Case-Shiller defines Chicago as the entire Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division, which includes all of the following counties: Cook IL, DeKalb IL, Du Page IL, Grundy IL, Kane IL, Kendal IL, McHenry IL, and Will IL.]

The October Market Wrap Up

Let’s take at look at some October numbers for single-family houses and condos in the Chicago area and see how they compare to last year.

Cook County

• 52,837 properties were for sale, down from 63,537 in October 2008
• 8,632 new listings came on the market, down from 9,687 in October 2008
• 4,131 properties sold, up from 3,174 in October 2008
• The average sales price for single-family homes was $242,189, down from $288,715 in October 2008

DuPage County

• 10,602 properties were for sale, down from 12,312 in October 2008
• 1,602 new listings came on the market, down from 1,727 in October 2008
• 827 properties sold, up from 618 in October 2008
• The average sales price for single-family homes was $338,629, down from $396,839 in October 2008

Lake County

• 9,499 properties were for sale, down from 10,518 in October 2008
• 1,349 new listings came on the market, up from 1,326 in October 2008
• 607 properties sold, up from 479 in October 2008
• The average sales price for single-family homes was $307,468, down from $329,969 in October 2008

We pulled these numbers from MRED.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These numbers are for county-level trends. To see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.

Greg Whelan Is The #2 Buyers’ Agent In The Chicago Area

Our Chicago-area agents had another great month in October!

Of the 4,600+ buyers’ agents who closed a deal in October, Redfin had two in the top 15:

When you work with Redfin, you’ll be working with some of the best agents in the region. Our agents know what’s going on in the market right now because they spend all of their time serving clients: touring homes, writing offers and closing deals.

We pulled these numbers from MRED, the database for real estate transactions and listings in Illinois and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in Cook, Lake & DuPage Counties based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.

Our Clients Love Our Service

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in October from our clients in the Chicago area:

• 15 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, down from 21 in September.
• All 15 of those clients, or 100%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, the same as in September.

We ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.

The $8,000 Home-Buyer Tax Credit Has Been Extended & Expanded

Earlier today, President Obama signed new legislation extending the deadline for the home buyer tax credit into 2010 and expanding it to include current home owners who are looking to buy a primary residence.

The Basic Requirements

You qualify for the tax credit if the:

• Home you’re buying will be your primary residence
• Purchase price isn’t more than $800,000

This credit is not a loan; it’s yours, but keep in mind you have to live in your new home for three years. If you sell the home in less than three years, you’ll have to pay back the money.

What’s Changed?

With the new legislation, buyers have more time to find a home and more buyers are eligible for the tax credit:

• New deadline: To qualify, you need to be in contract with a seller by April 30th & close on the home by June 30th (The previous deadline was November 30, 2009).
• Not just for first-time buyers anymore: Home buyers who’ve owned and occupied a home for at least five consecutive years during the past eight years are eligible for a credit up to $6,500.
• Increased income limits: Individuals making less than $125,000 and couples making less than $225,000 are eligible (The limits used to be $75K & $150K).

First-time buyers are eligible for a credit up to $8,000 on homes purchased between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. Qualified homeowners can a credit up to $6,500 on homes purchased between November 7, 2009 and June 30, 2010.

Bonus Link

You can check out the full text of the bill. Scroll about halfway down to sections 11 & 12:

• Sec. 11. Extension and Modification of First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.
• Sec. 12. Provisions to Enhance the Administration of the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.