Case-Shiller: Chicago Price Declines Accelerate
Time for a monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Chicago area* as of October:
October 2008
Month to Month: Down 1.6%
Year to Year: Down 10.8%
Change from Peak: Down 13.7%
The following chart shows the Chicago HPI scaled such that the September 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Chicago HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (August 2004).
Chicago home price declines acclelerated in October according to Case-Shiller, with the pattern heading into winter ’08-’09 looking fairly similar to this time last year. Chicago’s largest month-to-month price drop was 2.3% in January, so October’s drop, while severe, was not the biggest.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Chicago’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s one more chart, in which I have lined up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Of the eight markets Redfin serves, Chicago has dropped the second-least at 25 months from the peak.
With home price drops gaining steam again, it doesn’t look like we’re in for a bottom any time real soon in Chicago. If you are a seller that took your home off the market for the winter hoping for a rebound in spring, the current trends point toward disappointment. Of course, for buyers continued price drops means continually better deals to be found.
*[Case-Shiller defines Chicago as the entire Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division, which includes all of the following counties: Cook IL, DeKalb IL, Du Page IL, Grundy IL, Kane IL, Kendal IL, McHenry IL, and Will IL.]
