Case-Shiller: Chicago Home Prices Hit a New Low in December

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Chicago area* as of December:

Ninteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between November and December (the same as October to November). Washington DC’s 0.4% increase was the only month-to-month gain. In November there were four markets posting year-over-year gains. In December that number dropped to two: San Diego and Washington DC.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

The high tier lost the least ground in December, while the middle tier fell the most. Month to month, the low tier was down 1.3%, the middle tier fell 3.2%, and the high tier increased 0.7%.

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Spring Getting into Full Swing! (Jan. 2011 Insider Report)

Redfin’s monthly Chicago real estate insider report draws from our proprietary database of information on homes for sale and that just sold, along with insight from our agents to get a sense of what’s going on in the market right now. If you’d like to receive the report via email, just sign up.

Greetings Chicagoland Redfinnians!

Despite the fresh snow and recent single-digit high temperatures, the spring market seems to be hitting its stride.

In last month’s report, we noted that post-holiday demand had begun to kick in. We questioned whether this was simply the typical onset of the spring market or possibly the beginning of a longer term trend. A month later, we’re leaning toward trend. The past three months, November, December and January, have seen an increase in the number of end-of-month pending transactions versus their respective previous-year months.

Backing up those numbers, Redfin Chicago’s tours, which saw a 43% increase from December 11th to January 10th, increased again, 10.4% from January 11th to February 10th.

Data courtesy of Agent Metrics

Where Are We Going from Here?

Even with what seems to be an emerging trend, there is a divergence of opinion on the near-future direction of the market. Patrick Lusk, a West Suburban Redfin agent, believes we “may be hitting the bottom, as the Illinois unemployment rate has hit a 2-year low and the market seems to be responding,” while Dario Medina, a Far North Side Redfin agent, has had clients state that “it’s time to jump off the fence” with interest rates on the rise. Unfortunately, several of those clients have seen properties they’ve been following go under contract before they had the chance to take the plunge.

On the other hand, Chicago agent Greg Whelan believes that while there has been a short-term bump in offers due to the rise in rates, this, along with rising inventories “will have negative longer term pressure on the market.” He adds that “sellers are currently in denial, due to the seasonal increase in showing requests, despite that negative market pressure.”

Change in # of Houses for Sale on January 31st 2011

This argument is not limited to Redfin agents. Professionals from all walks of life, including top economists, disagree on the economy’s (and real estate’s) direction and the timing of any recovery.

Regardless of what the future holds, the increase in demand has yet to affect the downward trend in home sale prices.

Change in Median Price of Houses That Sold in January 2011

Deals Can Be Had…If You Look in the Right Places

Despite the crystal balls all showing differing outlooks, one point of universal agreement is where most buyers are attracted. Jeannine Haffner, a Redfin Field Agent who shows over 100 homes per month to dozens of clients, observes that “most buyers are shunning homes that need some work, even if the price difference is significantly greater than the repair or upgrade costs.” Buyers seem to want turnkey homes, in the best locations, listed at a great price. While this results in more buyer competition for these homes, those willing to get their hands dirty (or pay someone else to do so) will have the best opportunities to get a great deal on what could become their dream home.

If you want even more data including specific cities, town and neighborhoods, be sure to download our master spreadsheet and dive into all the data you ever wanted. To learn more about how we calculate these numbers, check out our methodology page. If you have any questions or feedback about our report, just leave a comment below!

Best,

Mark Reitman
Chicago Market Manager

Two Redfin Agents Rank in the Top 15 Chicago Buyers Agents

Redfin Chicago-area agent Patrick Lusk ranks #9 and Greg Whelan ranks #13 out of all 8,814 buyer’s agents who closed deals in the greater Chicago area for October, November, & December 2010!

We pulled these numbers from MRED, the database for real estate transactions and listings in Illinois and ranked agents who represented home-buyers of single-family homes and condominiums in the fourth quarter of 2010 in Cook, Will, Lake & DuPage Counties based first on number of deals, then by total dollar amount.

*Carie Cox’s online profile is in progress.

When you work with Redfin, you get great customer service while working with some of the most successful and active agents in the region.

Most agents spend around 80% of their time finding new clients, but Redfin agents don’t need to prospect since folks come to us on Redfin.com. As a result, Redfin agents can spend all their time serving clients: answering questions, hosting home tours, writing and negotiating offers, and listing homes. Redfin agents are experts in today’s market because they spend more of their time serving clients, not making sales calls.

Our Clients Love Our Service

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in the fourth quarter of 2010 from our clients in the Chicago area:

• 47 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online
• All 47 of those clients, or 100%, would recommend Redfin to a friend

We ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend. To learn more about how we survey our clients and calculate the customer ratings, check out our FAQ on agent reviews.

*These numbers do not include deals never listed on the MLS