Case-Shiller: A Mild Winter for Home Prices

It’s time (a bit past time, actually) for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Denver area* as of January:

Sixteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between December and January (one less than between November and December): Washington DC joined Phoenix and Miami with an increase. No data was available for Charlotte in January. Oddly, San Francisco had the largest drop at 2.5%.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Denver’s tiers fell in January. Month to month, the low tier was down 2.1%, the middle tier fell 0.7%, and the high tier decreased 0.3%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Another gain here, with the best January showing since 2006, when 11 markets were increasing.

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In Praise of the Appraisal

No other part of the home-buying process can alternately make you jump up and shout for joy, or make you slump down in your chair, utterly defeated. You appraise high, you jump. You appraise low, you slump. But of course it’s a little more complex than that….

Home values seem like a moving target.  There are multiple offers about half of the time I put a deal together on behalf of my buyers, so I’m constantly balancing getting my clients the home that they want, while making sure they don’t pay more than what it is worth.

What is an appraisal anyway?

The appraisal protects the interests of the lender by making sure the property is worth what they’re loaning you for it. The lender hires (and the buyer pays for) an independent, unbiased opinion of the value of the home, including the proximity to amenities as well as the overall condition of the property.  They will also provide a report on the overall market conditions, if the property is in a “declining market” or a healthier, more stable one.  The appraisal isn’t an inspection, but they certainly will report if they can see obvious problems such as a leaking roof or other issues that might affect the value of the property.

Doesn’t the listing agent do that when putting the home on the market?

It’s a little different. The listing agent prepares a Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) to compare your property to those that have sold close by.  It takes into account the location, age, condition and size.  It is not an exact science and is typically presented in a price range – low price, high price and median.  The appraisal is a more exact valuation, and therein lies the difference.

As a seller, how can I get a higher appraisal? 

• Accompany the appraiser while touring your home: Contrary to what you may have heard, sellers are welcome at the appraisal, and if you’re the seller, you should be there!  No one knows your home better than you; you know what improvements were made, the condition of the home when you purchased it, and even what you spent on improvements.  Point these things out! You’d hate to have an appraiser not know about your new roof or replacement window. Be sure to point out location features such as views and cul-de-sac locations.  Let your agent know that you would like to be with the appraiser, especially if you have done renovations in the home or have unique features that might need more explanation.
• Provide the appraiser with comparable solds: Make sure that your agent provides the appraiser with appropriate comparable sold properties.  Be aware that you can use a home that is under contract, but not yet closed, as a comparable.  You can also search non-MLS sources for comparable properties, such as public records, for sold-by-owner properties and even new construction (Redfin.com lists all of these).  Ideally they cannot be more than than 6 months old, with three months being ideal.
• Provide a list of upgrades to the appraiser: If you’re not going to be there to point them out, it is perfectly acceptable to provide the appraiser with a list of features or upgrades in the home.  In fact, it is helpful when the appraiser goes back to his office to prepare the paperwork.  Be sure to include items that might not appear in the appraisers photograph such as central air, the efficient HVAC system as well as the obvious solid surface countertops and the finished basement.  I have often looked at appraisals in which the appraiser forgot a bathroom or included a fireplace when there wasn’t one.
• Correct public records errors: Be sure to check public records for accuracy and provide corrections to the appraiser.  If public records indicate that 50% of the basement is finished and you really have 80%, be sure to point that out.  Provide any documentation supporting square footage, including previous appraisals or architectural prints.

What if my home appraisers for less than what I agreed upon with the buyer?

First, take a deep breath. All is not lost. You have the right to appeal the appraisal.  The appeal or rebuttal process will be in writing (the HVCC prevents you or your agent from visiting the appraiser) and handled by the management group that the appraiser belongs to.  You will work with the agent to put together a written plan.  Be sure to use fact and figures. Be tactful and be logical.  Stay away from emotions or descriptors that don’t provide value such as “open floorplan” or “light and bright.”  You can use alternative comparables, or correct gross errors such as square footage.

I recently helped sellers who “fixed and flipped” a home in Aurora.  They bought it as a foreclosure and remodeled the home from top to bottom.   The seller is an architect and a general contractor; the work was top notch.  We got multiple offers on the property, at full price.  The appraiser called me to get access to the home and mentioned “I’m not sure how you came up with this price, I’m looking at the solds and I’m not seeing it”.  I quickly arranged for the seller to accompany the appraiser; he knew every detail inside and out what he done to the property.  I gathered up solds and even called some other agents with listings in the area that were under contract.    I forwarded those onto the appraiser, along with a note about the pending transactions and my multiple offers, on Christmas Eve, after just 15 days on the market.  We got our appraisal, the highest PPSF in the neighborhood for the past year.

Case-Shiller: Denver’s Middle Tier Took the Biggest Hit in December

It’s time (a bit past time, actually) for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Denver area* as of December:

Eighteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between November and December (one less than between October and November): Only Phoenix (for the third month in a row) and Miami saw an increase. This month Detrioit beat out Chicago and Atlanta for the bottom spot, falling 3.8% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Denver’s tiers fell in December. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.5%, the middle tier fell 1.1%, and the high tier decreased 0.9%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Tiny improvement, better than a year ago, but worse than December 2009, when 5 cities saw an increase.

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Case-Shiller: Another Winter for Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Denver area* as of November:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between October and November (the same as between September and October): Only Phoenix saw an increase, for the second month in a row. This month Chicago bumped Atlanta out of the bottom spot, falling 3.4% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Denver’s tiers fell in November. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.5%, the middle tier fell 0.3%, and the high tier decreased 0.7%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just five months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

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January Inventory Hits 12-Month Low; Prices Up Slightly Year Over Year

The steady gutting of the inventory is making buyers desperate in Denver. I’m getting calls from agents not looking to advertise their listings (which would be normal), but rather asking for pocket listings or ideas of people who are on the fence about selling. They’re just not finding the inventory they need on the open market.

A recent conversation I had with a home owner reinforces that. I’d heard that she was possibly interested in selling, and I’d heard correctly. In fact, she’d already been contacted by several other agents as well and as a result of the blatant demand, decided to try to sell on her own for two weeks before hiring an agent and listing it on the MLS.

Inventory nearly halved since last year
The story in Denver in January was all about buyers not having much to choose from. The number of single-family homes in Denver fell 10.6% from the previous month and 48.6% from January last year, to 1,263.

Given the pace of sales and the number of homes on the market, it would take 3.5 months to sell through the current inventory, a term known in the industry as “months of supply.” In a market balanced between buyers and sellers, we’d expect to see 5-6 months of supply, so this represents a strong advantage for sellers in Denver, but still an improvement on December’s 12-month low in months of supply. As you’ll see in the chart below, the market for condos and townhomes is more balanced that that for single family homes.

Sales drop by 24% in January
We’ve all heard that real estate is seasonal, and one look at the chart of the number of home sales reinforces that. There were 440 sales in Denver, representing a sharp decrease of 23.6% since December 2011, but up 12.2% since January 2011. This is mostly due to the fact that not many people are out looking for homes during the holiday season, and so there are less people ready to buy early in the year.

Denver Median Sale Price Down Slightly for the Month
The median sale price for a single-family home in Denver was $195,000, down 4.2% from December 2011 and up 3.4% year over year from January 2011. The per-square-foot price was also down 4.5% month over month, to $126, but up 1.6% year over year.

Denver is #3 on Redfin Heat Index
Want to know how the Denver real estate market is doing compared with the rest of the country? Take a look at the Redfin Heat Index*, which shows that Denver is the third-hottest market that Redfin serves right now:

Redfin’s housing market data combines public records, local multiple listing services, for-sale-by-owner and other verified sources. The data is validated by Redfin analysts to ensure it is comprehensive and accurate. Redfin publishes these reports each month on or around the 10th of the month, for the previous month. As a tech-focused broker, Redfin is the only company with access to this level of data.

Case-Shiller: Seasonal Slide in Home Prices Continues

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Denver area* as of October:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between September and October (vs. eighteen from August to September): Only Phoenix saw an increase. Wait, Phoenix? Yup, Phoenix. Atlanta fell the most in October (again), falling a whopping 5.0% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Denver’s middle and high tier fell in October, but the low tier rose slightly. Month to month, the low tier was up 0.7%, the middle tier fell 0.1%, and the high tier decreased 0.3%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just four months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

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THE CLOCK IS TICKING TO SCORE A GOOD DEAL ON A NEWLY CONSTRUCTED HOME

Tis the season! No, not that season….it’s the end of the fiscal year for a majority of Denver home builders and they will do just about anything to squeeze in one more closing to meet their annual sales goals. For many local builders (see the list below) that clock stops when the ball drops on New Year’s Eve. So if you are out searching for a property and want to score an amazing deal, now is the time to check out construction sites around the metro area to see what is available.

WHY ARE BUILDERS SO EAGER TO SELL RIGHT NOW?
Some of these completed homes are the result of contract cancellations, so the builder was counting on the sale. Builders are feeling tremendous pressure to meet sales targets set earlier in the year. Meeting sales goals translates to shareholder confidence for publically traded homebuilders. For some sales managers and construction managers, it can mean their annual bonus or even their jobs. Many builders would rather unload their remaining homes at deeply discounted prices rather than let them sit on the market unsold. Finished homes create tremendous costs to the builder including HOA dues, electricity, insurance, and their own construction loan costs. Many builders cannot get the cash to start building new homes that customers have ordered until they sell the ones they have completed, so there can be opportunity costs as well.
What is the downside?
These homes are finished or almost finished and therefore, buyers don’t get to customize the home or choose the building site. These homes may not have sold because they have an unpopular floor plan or located in an undesirable location. It can also be stressful or inconvenient to close so quickly because the builder will want the deal in the books before the year’s end.
AREN’T NEW HOMES MORE EXPENSIVE THAN OLDER HOMES?
Traditionally, builders have been able to sell new homes for more than comparable older homes. However, the weak housing market has forced builders to be competitive in both price and offerings. Builders recognize that their biggest competition is the resale market, not other new homes. They are offering options not easily found in the resale market such as solar panels and four car garage options. They are throwing in landscaping, window coverings, fences, and sprinkler system to cut the traditional after-close expenses home buyers would typically incur.
SHOULD I USE A REAL ESTATE AGENT TO PURCHASE A NEW HOME?
You don’t have to, but that is true with any home purchase. Working with a real estate agent does not affect your negotiating ability because the commissions are paid from the builders marketing budget. In Colorado, builders use a non-Colorado Real Estate Regulated Contract. It is certainly helpful to have an experienced agent who can ask questions that aren’t addressed in their contract, but are in the regulated version. In short, there’s no downside to having an agent, but a big potential benefit.

Here is a table of publicly held home builders who build in Colorado and their fiscal year end:

Should I Wait Until Spring to List My Home? – Denver Edition

Over on the national blog, we just posted another big analysis of hundreds of thousands of listings and sales. Here are the numbers for Denver, where winter is still a winning time to list your home for a quick sale, a better chance of selling, and a better price:

Case-Shiller: Get Ready for a Long Winter for Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Denver area* as of September:

Seventeen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between August and September (vs. eleven from July to August): Only Washington DC, New York, and Portland rose. Atlanta fell the most in September, falling a whopping 5.9% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Denver’s tiers fell in September, with the high tier losing the most ground. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.4%, the middle tier fell 0.7%, and the high tier decreased 0.9%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just three months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now only three have avoided falling into the red.

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Case-Shiller: Summer Winds Down for Denver Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – August data is released in October).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Denver area* as of August:

Ten of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between July and August (vs. two from June to July): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Washington DC. saw the biggest increase this month, followed closely behind by Detroit and Chicago.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Denver’s high and middle tier both rose in August, but the low tier lost ground. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.1%, the middle tier rose 0.2%, and the high tier increased 0.6%.

Here’s a new chart for you. In this one, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

The effects of 2009′s homebuyer tax credit are dramatically visible in this chart, as is the fairly strong spring we had this year, hitting 20 cities increasing for the first time since July 2005. However, the sudden drop-off of month-over-month gains in August’s data is interesting, since during a “normal” year we wouldn’t expect to see this many cities in the red until December or January. I think this indicates that there is still quite a bit of weakness in home prices.

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