It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – February data is released in April).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of February:
Month to Month: Down 2.0%
Year to Year: Down 24.1%
Change from Peak: Down 40.4% in 29 months
The following chart shows the Los Angeles HPI scaled such that the September 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Los Angeles HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (August 2003).
The rate of decline in Los Angeles continued the moderating trend that began with November’s data. Both Los Angeles and San Diego climbed back up from 26-27% yearly declines to “just” 23-24% declines, as can be seen here:
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Los Angeles’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Home prices have fallen faster since the peak in Los Angeles than every Case-Shiller market but Las Vegas and Phoenix, but it would appear that November’s data may have indeed been the first sign of an eventual stabilization. However, even if that is the case, the current rate of improvement would put home prices flattening out sometime in early 2011.