Case-Shiller: New York Hits Double-Digit Declines

Hello, I’m Tim Ellis, Redfin statistics blogger. I’d like to thank Glenn and the good people at Redfin for giving me the opportunity to delve into real estate data here in their newest market: New York. To kick things off, let’s take a look the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – February data is released in April).

For Case-Shiller, it is important to be aware that their geographical coverage area* is very large, and expands much further than Redfin’s New York coverage area.

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the New York City area* as of February:

February 2009
Month to Month: Down 1.7%
Year to Year: Down 10.2%
Change from Peak: Down 17.5% in 32 months

The following chart shows the New York HPI scaled such that the June 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the New York HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (August 2004).

ny-case-shiller-peak_2009-02

New York’s HPI is rather different from many of the other cities tracked by the Case-Shiller index, in that its decline has been noticably slower than its ascent. Still though, the New York HPI has “rewound” nearly five years since the peak.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare New York’s performance to other areas across the country:

case-shiller-redfin-markets_2009-02b

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

case-shiller-peak-declines_2009-02b

New York’s drop has been slower than most other cities, despite the turmoil in the financial markets headquartered here. Of the twenty cities tracked by Case-Shiller, only Denver, Charlotte, and Dallas have seen prices fall less than New York. Although price declines have been accelerating somewhat in the past four updates, we did see something of a spring bounce here last year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one reflected in the data again this year.

*[Case-Shiller defines the New York City area as all of Fairfield, New Haven, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren, Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, Westchester, and Pike counties.]