Case-Shiller: New York Price Declines Gain Steam

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – March data is released in May).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the New York City area* as of March:

March 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.7%
Year to Year: Down 11.8%
Change from Peak: Down 19.7% in 33 months

The following chart shows the New York HPI scaled such that the June 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the New York HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (June 2004).

ny-case-shiller-peak_2009-03

New York’s February to March HPI drop was its biggest one-month decline yet, knocking out about 3 months of 2004 price gains.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare New York’s performance to other areas across the country:

case-shiller-redfin-markets_2009-03

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

case-shiller-peak-declines_2009-03

So far there isn’t any kind of spring bounce shaping up in this year’s numbers. Since New York’s decline has been somewhat tame so far compared to other cities, it may be that price declines here are beginning to play some “catch up” with the rest of the country. Time will tell.

*[Case-Shiller defines the New York City area as all of Fairfield, New Haven, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union, Warren, Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York, Orange, Putnam, Queens, Richmond, Rockland, Suffolk, Westchester, and Pike counties.]