Crystal Ball


Of course it’s a new year and with the slate “wiped clean” so to speak, many are out there with their crystal balls trying to predict what 2008 holds for the local real estate market.   Of course, the number of these so-called predictions amount to the number of Cheerios I find on my floor from my two toddlers at any given moment…too many to count.  Yet, I can’t help but reading them, just like those dunderheads who block up the left lane of the 5 because they have to gape at that person changing their tire – totally unnecessary, but unavoidable. 

Why?  Don’t we just all want to know what the future holds?  Would we really get on the aforementioned 5 if we knew our tire was going to blow that day?  So we just keep trying to control and predict as much as we can.

So just what are the 2008 local real estate predictions like? 

The locally famous Lanser’s Real Estate blog  gives the famous Eyeball 2008 where various experts chime in on their predcitions of the market.   His experts answer the same three questions and nearly all of them have different opinions.  My favorite is where local Realtor Bill Nelson compares the “growth” of the 2007 market to 2002 which have about, well, nothing in common.  While it seemed that Eyeball 2007 painted a much rosier picture anticipating the hitting the bottom it seems many of the local experts this year anticipate it will take at least until late 2008, or more realistically, 2009ish for us to hit rock bottom.

The LA Times LA Land blog is reporting that the bottom is here.  While the experts (in this case Ed Lazear, the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors and California Building Industry Association) both hint at things turning around in about six months or so, he begrudgingly joins the prediction bandwagon and hints at this continuing so long that we’ll usher in our new president complaining. 

And perhaps my favorite is a video.  South OC Real Estate Tracker reports this video which drills home the underlying principals here – everyone is reporting the news that seems to suit them best.   Take a minute to watch - it’s worth the laugh!