Where Are They Going?

As I read Jon Lanser’s Blog about the fact that Allied Vans reported that 52% of California moves are out of the state, I kept hearing the song, The Way, by Fastball  running through my head.

They made up their minds
And they started packing
They left before the sun came up that day
An exit to eternal summer slacking
But where were they going
Without ever knowing the way?
As many of the posters commented on Lanser’s blog, “Who cares?!”.  Really, not many do, but reading this also stirred up another thought in my mind that I’ve been asking myself for the last few years. 

Where is everyone coming and going from?  Seriously!  For the last five years I’ve seen new construction popping up all over – big cities, suburbs, even rural towns in Central Illinois and I’ve wondered where the people were coming from to live there and where everyone else was going? 

Eventually I knew things would bust.  The population wasn’t growing that fast.   Alas, flash forward to 2008 and here we are sitting with a rapidly deflating real estate market.  It seems Fastball saw the future 10 years ago - we all made up or minds and started packing with the lacksidasical care felt only in the throes of summer.  We all moved and shuffled from home to home trying to get the best deal and make some cash, but I guess we should have known the “way” way back then!

The way the Laguna Hills market is playing out right now is par for the course with the rest of the OC.

 lh-feb-median-price.jpg

Back on January 5th Altos Research reported the median price of the Laguna Hills single family residences (SFR) was about $805,000.  Currently, the number is about $789,000.  That’s a pretty steep drop for a month and a half.

We’re seeing the time on the market creep up as well.  Things dipped down to about 108 days in December and were at about 118 days in January.  This month the number is back up to 122 days.  Ironically the number of homes on the market is continuing to thin out.  This is the 3rd month where we’ve seen a decrease.  In January there were about  117 and now 109 are estimated on the market.

During the peak of the bubble we had no idea where we were going, and after reading conflicting reports of when the market was going to bottom out (anywhere from now to 2012), it looks like no one knows the way yet!