I like living in West Seattle. I really do. But the number of homes for sale worries me–where’s everybody going?
The last numbers I ran a few days ago show that there are 726 homes for sale in West Seattle, which has four zip codes. The average number of homes per zip code, then, is about 181. Maybe I missed the news story about plans for a new nuclear plant or maximum security prison. That’s a lot of for sale signs to be in a single zip code. So many, in fact, that if I could see ten homes every weekend it would take me almost a year and a half to see all of them. And I didn’t even include condos.
Now for the good news. Well, good if you want to buy a house in West Seattle. Not so good if you’re selling. I tallied up the homes for sale per zip code, and their corresponding age (days on market, column headings), and here’s what I came up with:
Approximately one third of homes in West Seattle have been on the market more than three months. What does this tell me? According to Glenn’s post about “real estate science”, this third of homes is probably discounted 8-12% from its original asking price. Homes between 30 and 60 days on the market–the middle third–are discounted anywhere from 2-8%. Anecdotal evidence supports this broad, multi-city statistic: search for homes that have been on the market more than 90 days and look at the price history (you have to scroll down a bit), you’re likely to see one reduction after another.
If individual owners aren’t buying these homes, I’m sure there are plenty of flippers who will. Will the cycle repeat?