September Insider Report: Seattle Cooling Slower than Other Cities

Redfin National Heat IndexGreetings, Redfinnians!

As promised, this month we rolled out a new and improved version of our monthly insider report. “But where is it,” you ask. Ahh, well this new report is available via email-only, and was sent out to a group of registered users who have saved searches or favorites in the Ballard area.

If you’d like to receive next month’s report, just make sure you’re signed up for our newsletters (check the “Redfin Announcements” box in your Account Settings), and save a favorite home or a search in Ballard. That’s it, you’re signed up!

Here on the blog we will continue posting the “lite” version of our monthly report, including our Redfin Heat Index, the heat map, and the hottest / coldest neighborhoods for the foreseeable future. So, let’s get into it.

First up is our national Redfin Heat Index* ranking table at right. As you can see, not much change for Seattle. Despite prices being down and months of supply up slightly from last month, pushing Seattle’s Redfin Heat Index down four points, Seattle moved up one spot on the national ranking, from #12 in August to #11 in September, as other areas fell even further.

Washington DC continues to be the hottest market in the nation, while Long Island is still pulling up the rear with falling prices and a dramatic 11.1 months of supply. Yikes!

Next up, let’s have a look at an update to our interactive Redfin Heat Index map broken down by zip code, based on September data. Note that we only calculate the Redfin Heat Index for zip codes with at least 20 sales in September 2011 and September 2010, and as we head into the winter that means more and more zip codes will be grey with “not enough data.”

Heat Map Color Legend

Next, let’s have a look at the hottest and coldest Seattle-area neighborhoods in September.

King County’s 5 Hottest Neighborhoods in September

Rank Neighborhood Price Months of Supply Heat
1 Ravenna -2.8% 1.6 90.4
2 Lake City -0.9% 3.0 83.8
3 Delridge +1.2% 4.6 77.2
4 West Seattle -1.1% 4.0 76.7
5 Magnolia -6.3% 3.3 71.5

Delridge making a repeat appearance in the top five, while Magnolia muscles out its neighbor Queen Anne.

King County’s 5 Coldest Neighborhoods in September

Rank Neighborhood Price Months of Supply Heat
1 Rainier Valley -20.9% 4.7 32.2
2 Northwest Seattle -10.0% 5.0 52.0
3 Beacon Hill -6.0% 4.7 62.4
4 Snoqualmie Ridge -7.2% 3.7 67.1
5 Northeast Seattle -10.7% 2.3 69.8

All righty, that’s it for this month. Stay tuned next month for our new and improved Insider Report!

As usual, you can download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself. Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

*Methodology
The Redfin Heat Index (Beta) uses listings, sales, and price changes to determine the relative “heat” of a given real estate market. We set a baseline Heat Index of 75.0 at 6.0 months of supply and +5 % price change year-over-year.
Every percentage point increase in prices above the 5% baseline will increase the heat index by two points, every percentage point decrease in prices below the 5% baseline will decrease the heat index by two points.
Every one month of supply increase above the 6.0 baseline will decrease the heat index by seven points, every one month of supply decrease below the 6.0 baseline will increase the heat index by seven points.
Here’s the formula:
  • MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
  • $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
  • Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * -7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75
  • Saulac

    Why the hell do I have to have saved search or favorites in Ballard area to get the new report? I am not interested in Ballard. I hate Ballard. Enough people follow the requirement will distort the stat. for that over hype area. It will show more people search in that area. Have you thought of that?

    • The_Tim

      Sorry if I wasn't clear, but the new reports are very local.  We're rolling them out slowly to various neighborhoods one at a time.  We started with Ballard because a decent number of people on our site are searching there.  If you're not interested in Ballard, then you wouldn't be interested in the Ballard report.  Hang tight though, we're rolling it out to more neighborhoods each month.

    • Redfin

      Your question, while valid, is rude. It's not okay to be rude just because you're online.

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