Case-Shiller: DC Declines Continue at Surprisingly Constant Rate

It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – February data is released in April).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Washington DC area* as of February:

February 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.3%
Year to Year: Down 19.2%
Change from Peak: Down 33.1% in 33 months

The following chart shows the DC area HPI scaled such that the May 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the DC area HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (January 2004).

dc-case-shiller-peak_2009-02

February’s drop in prices continued the surprisingly straight-line trend that we have seen since September’s data—2.2% to 2.6% month-to-month drops every month for six months straight. As of February home prices in DC have “rewound” just over five years.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare the DC area’s performance to other areas across the country:

case-shiller-redfin-markets_2009-02

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

case-shiller-peak-declines_2009-02

Since August, DC’s price decline has tracked incredibly close to ground already covered across the country in San Diego. DC’s overall post-peak decline of 33.1% is the ninth-largest of the 20 cities tracked by Case-Shiller.

*[Case-Shiller defines Washington DC as the entire Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the District of Columbia and all or part of the following counties: Calvert MD, Charles MD, Frederick MD, Montgomery MD, Prince Georges MD, Alexandria City VA, Arlington VA, Clarke VA, Fairfax VA, Fairfax City VA, Falls Church City VA, Fauquier VA, Fredericksburg City VA, Loudoun VA, Manassas City VA, Manassas Park City VA, Prince William VA, Spotsylvania VA, Stafford VA, Warren VA, and Jefferson WV.]

  • ibc

    *[Case-Shiller defines Washington DC as the entire Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the District of Columbia and all or part of the following counties: Calvert MD, Charles MD, Frederick MD, Montgomery MD, Prince Georges MD, Alexandria City VA, Arlington VA, Clarke VA, Fairfax VA, Fairfax City VA, Falls Church City VA, Fauquier VA, Fredericksburg City VA, Loudoun VA, Manassas City VA, Manassas Park City VA, Prince William VA, Spotsylvania VA, Stafford VA, Warren VA, and Jefferson WV.]

    Why not throw in Columbus, OH and Nashville, TN while you’re at it? :)