Fairfax County Home Prices Back to Their Late Spring High

Something strange is happening in Fairfax County.  Check out the median list price of a single family home (SFH) in Fairfax County back in May ($649,500), the height of the real estate season. Now take a look at where prices were last month (also $649,500).  Prices took a short dip this fall but have avoided the winter slump and are already back where we left them last spring.

What the heck is going on in Fairfax this season?  This has been a strange season all around, not just for housing.  “Winter never really came, and when we ask our clients why they’ve chosen to buy or sell now, they tell us ‘2012 is my year,’” Rob Wittman, Northern Virginia agent told us.  Well, apparently there’s a lot of 2012 to go around. January saw buyers come out in droves with lots of bidding wars, so sellers who are pricing on the high side may have the right idea.  There are about 2 months of inventory currently on the market, meaning it’s a seller’s market, as Rob says, “the buyers we’re working with are still looking for the right home at a good price, so homes will still sit on the market if they are overpriced.”

For a complete picture of the local market’s most recent stats and trends, download the Redfin Market Report here: Redfin-Washington-Real-Estate-Market-Report-January-2012. Want to know how the Washington DC area real estate market is doing compared with the rest of the country? Take a look at the Redfin Heat Index:


*Redfin Heat Index Methodology

The Redfin Heat Index (Beta) uses listings, sales, and price changes to determine the relative “heat” of a given real estate market. We set a baseline Heat Index of 75.0 at 6.0 months of supply and +5 % price change year-over-year.
Every percentage point increase in prices above the 5% baseline will increase the heat index by two points, every percentage point decrease in prices below the 5% baseline will decrease the heat index by two points.
Every one month of supply increase above the 6.0 baseline will decrease the heat index by seven points, every one month of supply decrease below the 6.0 baseline will increase the heat index by seven points.
Here’s the formula:

  • MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
  • $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
  • Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * 7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75