July 2, 2009
We have a new listing at 2528 Graysby Ave in South Shores in San Pedro that’s hosting an open house this weekend and next. It’s a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,852 square foot home priced at $747,500.
Open House Date & Times
Sunday, July 5th, 1 p.m. - 5 p.m.
Saturday, July 11th, 1 p.m. - 5 p.m.
What The Seller Has To Say
Favorite Restaurants
Neal’s - offers exceptional Italian cuisine prepared by the chef and owner in a cozy bistro setting.
Papa Dakas - is a lively restaurant offering traditional Greek Food and belly dancing. It’s fun for the whole family.
Favorite Places to Go
Point Fermin Park - This lovely 37 acre park provides spectacular views and rugged bluffs afford a breathtaking views of Santa Catalina Island. It’s a perfect site for picnics or a leisurely stroll. There are picnic areas, a playground a light house, and a small amphitheater. Point Fermin Park is one of the few places on the peninsula where Monarch butterflies spend their winters.
The Korean Bell - Resting peacefully on the knoll overlooking the sea gate from which U.S. troops sailed into the Pacific, the bell site affords an unsurpassed view of the Los Angeles harbor, the Catalina Channel and the sea terraces of San Pedro hill. The bell is rung only four times each year: the Fourth of July, August 15 (Korean Independence Day) and New Year’s Eve, and every September to coincide with bell ringing around the country to celebrate Constitution week.
Favorite Room in the House
The family room it’s cozy, warm and always filled with natural sunlight.
Best Features
The wall French doors with beveled glass which lead out to the private backyard. We have enjoyed many days and nights entertaining friends and family on the patio, and playing on the lush green lawn. The nice tropical feel of the backyard also makes it an ideal place for afternoon siestas on our outdoor daybed.
Most Romantic Spot in the Neighborhood
Sagebrush Hiking Trail - it walking distance from our home the trail begins in San Pedro and goes all the way to Palos Verdes. The trail is an invigorating walk with coastal views of the Catalina’s, and green plants, and local wild life (squirrels, bunny rabbits, an occasional lizard). Take the trail till it ends at Trump National Golf Course, then sit and have a picnic on the manicured lawn, or venture down a side path to a quite rocky beach with tide pools. You don’t have to be a fit hiker to enjoy a stop along the trails many lookout points which offer romantic views of the sunset, or sunrise for you early birds.
What They’ll Miss The Most
We love living in the quite coastal community of the South Shores Area of San Pedro. There is so much history in this small area, and it’s in close proximity to so many beautiful parks, and beaches, yet we are just a stones throw away from Long Beach, Downtown LA, Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach, and Torrance.
June 30, 2009
It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, plus seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - April data is released in June).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of April:
April 2009
Month to Month: Down 0.9%
Year to Year: Down 21.3%
Change from Peak: Down 41.8% in 31 months
The following chart shows the Los Angeles HPI scaled such that the September 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Los Angeles HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (July 2003).
Prices continue to decline in Los Angeles, and a 21% year-over-year drop is certainly nothing to sneeze at. However, it is defintely worth mentioning that the trend of decreasing magnitude of price drops in LA and San Diego is also continuing:
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare LA’s performance to other areas across the country:
To recap, we have seen the following interventions in recent months meant to boost the housing market:
- $8k first-time buyer tax credit
- 4.5% - 5% mortgage rates
- various moratoriums on foreclosures
- numerous federal programs encouraging loan workouts
The apparent result of this host of actions has been a flattening to very slight upticks seen in the chart above, in a month that is historically one of the strongest of the year for the real estate market. I guess you can color me underwhelmed.
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
It’s been six months now since we first pointed out on these pages the sign of a possible bottom on the distant horizon for Los Angeles home prices. Things are definitely still heading in that direction, but it could easily be over a year before price drops finally hit that bottom.
June 29, 2009
Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.
The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.
For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.
First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:
Of the 100 cities/towns we ranked in the Los Angeles area this month, just 8 had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more.
Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten Los Angeles area neighborhoods for price reductions:
Of the 173 neighborhoods we ranked in the Los Angeles area this month, 31 had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. On average, the neighborhoods with more price reductions had somewhat higher median closed prices than those with fewer price reductions.
The general trend in Los Angeles looks to be heading slightly toward less price reductions, however every city and neighborhood is of course different. Some may be getting softer while others get tighter. Download the full spreadsheet to check where your neighborhood came in.
June 26, 2009
Marco Huerta and his wife Youngmin Bae were recently featured in the LA Times for buying their first home with Redfin. We decided to catch up with them and learn more about their experience buying a foreclosed home owned by the bank, also known as an REO (real estate owned).
Marco and Youngmin’s Story
We started looking for our first home in 2006. My wife and I both grew up in homes and were sick of living in apartments. We originally worked with a traditional agent and put in an offer on a home, but decided to pull out of the deal before our inspection contingency expired. After taking a break for a couple of years, we stumbled upon Redfin and loved using the map-based search. We signed up for updates on new listings, price reductions and scoured the details pages to monitor prices and movement of similar homes for sale.
We got pre-approved with our bank early on to set our price range, which was below $500,000. We knew we wanted a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom house in a quiet neighborhood. We went on five Redfin home tours around Glendale, Mount Rose, Eagle Rock and Burbank and loved our field agent, Todd Lethbridge. He was knowledgeable about the homes, always laid out the pros and cons for each property and never glossed over any potential issues. Redfin agent Joyti Goundar helped us on a few offers that didn’t pan out. But then in November 2008, we found an REO home in Burbank that we loved. We were able to go see it the day after it went on the market. The home was owned by Countrywide (now owned by Bank of America), and they require that buyers get pre-approved with them to put in offer on homes they list for sale. So we started the pre-approval process and put in an offer two days later, but learned that the bank had already accepted an offer from someone else!
Feeling a little discouraged, we decided to take a break for a few months. But then one day in late January, my wife decided to check Redfin and noticed that the home we had found was recently re-listed! We sprung into action and called Joyti who quickly helped us put an offer together. We then got pre-approved with Countrywide, so they knew we meant business. Our offer was accepted the next day — even for $10,000 below list price!
Marco and Youngmin’s Advice for First-Time Buyers
1. Be pro-active: it may seem like there’s a lot of inventory out there, but there’s also a lot of competition. The good homes will sell fast. We’re so glad we checked Redfin again because we probably wouldn’t have known our home was back on the market until it was too late. If you’re looking at an REO, check to see if you need to get pre-approved with the bank that owns the home. We were lucky to know that Countrywide required us to be pre-approved with them; so when the home went back on the market, we were ready to make an offer.
2. Get a thorough inspection: we knew our house might need some repairs, so in addition to the general inspection, we brought in a chimney inspector, sewage and pipes, and an electrician to evaluate the home for potential issues. Banks usually never pay for repairs, but I decided to create a detailed outline of all the problems and potential risks associated with some of the issues with home and presented it to the bank. They ended up giving us around $4,300 for repairs!
3. Choose a mortgage lender carefully: we monitored rates on Bankrate.com and researched all the different types of fees associated with loans. We met in-person with lenders at our local credit union as well as Wells Fargo. After comparing each good faith estimate carefully, we ended up going with Countrywide where we originally got pre-approved. They gave us the best rate and even waived our appraisal fee.
The market is tough, but don’t get too discouraged. If the right house comes along, make sure you’re prepared to make an offer and you just may end up with the perfect place!
June 16, 2009
Let’s check in on our stats once again and find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from last month in the Los Angeles area and sorted it by city/town. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any areas with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
Here are the top ten areas with the largest overall discount:
The overall discount dropped just a bit in June from our previous update in April, falling to 3.6% from 3.8%.
Here are the ten areas with the smallest discounts:
Twenty areas had an average sale price higher than the average list.
Here’s an added bonus. The following chart shows the top ten areas with the largest overall discount from the original list price, instead of the final list price:
Apparently sellers in Beverly Hills tend to be the most overly-optimistic with their original list prices. 25 of the 107 ranked cities/towns around LA came in with discounts from original list over 10%.
Is the area you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and hit the “FullSummary” sheet.
Of the 4,774 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 429 homes (9%) sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 677 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.
June 8, 2009
Let’s look at our May brokerage stats for Southern California to see how what our clients are doing right now reflects what’s happening in the market.
Our Clients Love Our Fanatical Service
We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in May from our clients in Southern California:
- 35 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, down from 44 in April.
- All 35 of those clients, or 100%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, up from 98% in April.
- 1 of our clients gave Redfin a five-star review on Yelp.
In these surveys, Redfin asks customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.
More People Are Making Offers On Homes
In May, our Southern California clients were busy seeing homes and making offers:
- Redfin clients toured 2,055 homes in May, up from 1,695 homes toured in April.
- Our clients submitted 109 signed offers on homes, up from 72 in April.
- Our Southern California agents were busy working on these signed offers:
o Joyti Goundar: 34 offers
o Katrina Jauregui: 32 offers
o Angela Creech: 24 offers
o Anna Nevares: 19 offers
- 31 of those offers or 28% were on bank-owned foreclosures, down from 35% in April.
We also had a great home-buying class in May. Twenty-two people came to the class in Escondido to learn about the home-buying process and meet our agents. Check out the slide deck from the class.
It’s Taking 35 Days To Close On A Home
In May, the time it took our clients in Southern California to close on their homes was 9 days shorter than in April:
- For our clients who bought re-sales, the average time from initial agreement on terms to the close of the deal was 35 days, down from 44 days in April.
- Closing took 38 days for bank-owned homes, but only 33 days for traditional sales.
- 1 of our clients failed to get financing for their home; the same as in April.
- 5 of our clients’ deals failed the home inspection, up from 1 in April.
- Of our closed deals, the average discount off list price for homes sold was 2.94%, down from 5.19% in April.
Look For Our June Report
We’ll be back next month with our analysis of the June numbers. Let us know what you’d like to see in that report.
May 26, 2009
It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - March data is released in May).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of March:
March 2009
Month to Month: Down 1.4%
Year to Year: Down 22.3%
Change from Peak: Down 41.3% in 30 months
The following chart shows the Los Angeles HPI scaled such that the September 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Los Angeles HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (July 2003).
Los Angeles’ year-over-year price drops have been moderating now for five months. Both Los Angeles and San Diego are now clocking in with yearly declines of “only” 22%:
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Los Angeles’ performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Southern California definitely appears to be on the leading edge of the national real estate trends. With prices still falling over 20% in a year, it’s far too early to call this a sign of a recovery, but it could definitely be a sign of an imminent bottom. The question then becomes how long will we stay at that bottom?
May 7, 2009
Let’s look at our brokerage stats for Southern California to see how what our clients are doing right now reflects what’s happening in the market.
Our Clients Love Our Fanatical Service
We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in March from our clients in Southern California:
- 44 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, up from 36 in March.
- 43 of those clients, or 98%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, up from 97% in March.
In these surveys, Redfin asks customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.
People Are Out Looking At Homes
In April, our Southern California clients were busy seeing homes and making offers:
- Redfin clients toured 1,695 homes in March, up from 1,457 homes toured in March.
- Our clients submitted 72 signed offers on homes, up from 68 in March.
- Our Southern California agents were busy working on these signed offers:
o Katrina Jauregui: 28 offers
o Anna Nevares: 19 offers
o Joyti Goundar: 14 offers
o Angela Creech: 11 offers
- 25 of those offers or 35% were on bank-owned foreclosures, down from 53% in March.
We also had 72 people come to our April home-buying class to the class to learn about the home-buying process and meet our agents. Check out the slide deck from the class.
It’s Taking 44 Days To Close On A Home
In March, the time it took our clients in Southern California to close on their homes was slightly longer than in March:
- For our clients who bought re-sales, the average time from initial agreement on terms to the close of the deal was 44 days, up from 42 days in March.
- 1 of our clients failed to get financing for their home; all of our clients successfully financed their homes in March.
- 1 of our client’s deals failed the home inspection, down from 5 in March.
- Of our closed deals, the average discount off list price for homes sold was 4.93%, up from 4.57% in March.
Look For Our May Report
We’ll be back next month with our analysis of the May numbers. Let us know what you’d like to see in that report.
April 28, 2009
It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - February data is released in April).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of February:
February 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.0%
Year to Year: Down 24.1%
Change from Peak: Down 40.4% in 29 months
The following chart shows the Los Angeles HPI scaled such that the September 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Los Angeles HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (August 2003).
The rate of decline in Los Angeles continued the moderating trend that began with November’s data. Both Los Angeles and San Diego climbed back up from 26-27% yearly declines to “just” 23-24% declines, as can be seen here:
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Los Angeles’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Home prices have fallen faster since the peak in Los Angeles than every Case-Shiller market but Las Vegas and Phoenix, but it would appear that November’s data may have indeed been the first sign of an eventual stabilization. However, even if that is the case, the current rate of improvement would put home prices flattening out sometime in early 2011.
April 24, 2009
Time for another update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in the Los Angeles area and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.
Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:
At 3.8%, the overall discount for the Los Angeles area came in the same as last month. 90210 held the top spot, while the rest of the top ten shifted about slightly.
Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:
Of the 6,187 sales we tracked in the 1.5-month period, 706 homes sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 743 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.
We’ve been tracking the discount trend for three months now, and have seen Los Angeles’ overall discount hold steady at 3.7%-3.8% off. It will be interesting to see what the spring and summer bring to these stats.
