Case-Shiller: LA Area Prices Still Creeping Up

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Keep in mind that all of the charts in this series of posts are based on the seasonally-adjusted data provided by S&P. For the full source data behind this post, plus non-seasonally adjusted data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website (requires free registration). For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of November:

Fourteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between October and November (three more than October). Detroit, Washington, Miami, Tampa, Chicago, and New York all marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at LA’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

All three tiers increased in November, with the low tier again getting the biggest boost, up 2.2% in a month, and the middle tier not far behind, increasing 2.1%.

Here’s a look at the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month figures in Redfin’s markets, with annotations of the beginning and the original end of the homebuyer tax credit, so you can see that I’m not just making stuff up when I say that the effects of the stimulus are wearing off.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

San Francisco, San Diego, and Los Angeles still appear to be on the rise, but elsewhere in the country, the summer 2009 price boost seems to have run out of steam.

Biggest Discounts by City in November

Let’s check in on our stats to find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the charts below, we have taken all sales data from the month of November in Los Angeles County and sorted it by city.

Methodology
First, we compiled a list of every sale that took place in the month, calculating each sale’s sale-to-list ratio (based on the final list price). Next, we simply take an average of every individual sale’s sale-to-list ratio to calculate an entire area’s sale-to-list ratio. Any sales that came in with a sale-to-list ratio above 150% or below 50% are excluded from the calculation, and areas with fewer than twenty sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings. Interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

Here are the top ten areas with the largest overall discount:

The overall discount fell just slightly from our last update (based on August sales), moving from 0.3% to 0.2%.

Here are the ten areas with the smallest discounts:

In the 80 areas we ranked, the median discount was basically zero (0.01%).

Is the area you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and check out the appropriate “Full” sheet.

Of the 5,523 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 1,148 homes sold for 5% or more off the asking price, while 1,010 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.

Case-Shiller: Prices Rose a Bit More as Tax Credit Neared Expiration

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Keep in mind that all of the charts in this series of posts are based on the seasonally-adjusted data provided by S&P. For the full source data behind this post, plus non-seasonally adjusted data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website (requires free registration). For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of October:

Eleven of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between September and October (the same number as September). Dallas, Atlanta, New York, Boston, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, and Tampa all marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at LA’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

The low tier got a serious boost in October, shooting up 1.4% in just a single month (an annual rate of 17%!). The middle and high tiers also increased, but not by nearly as much. I think by now most observers are keenly aware that increases like this are not sustainable. It will be interesting to see how long they last this time around.

Here’s a look at the seasonally-adjusted month-to-month figures in Redfin’s markets (welcome Atlanta!), with annotations of the beginning and the original end of the homebuyer tax credit, so you can see that I’m not just making stuff up when I say that the effect of the tax credit on home prices appears to be waning.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

The excellent economics news site Calculated Risk posted a great roundup on Sunday of 2009’s various government programs intended to prop up home prices, and when each is currently allegedly going to end. With the housing credit expiring next spring, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases ending in the first quarter, and tighter lending standards from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) on the way, home prices still may be poised to fall a bit further before all is said and done.

November (belated) City/Neighborhood Price Reductions

Let’s have another look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.

The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days (as of 11.16.2009). Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.

For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.

First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:

Of the 94 cities/towns we ranked in the Los Angeles area this month, just 6 had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. The median price-reduced ratio was 28.4%.

Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten neighborhoods for price reductions:

Of the 165 neighborhoods we ranked this month, just 9 had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. The median price-reduced ratio was 31.6%.

Download the full spreadsheet to check where your neighborhood came in (assuming your neighborhood had enough sales to be ranked).

Case-Shiller: Effects of Tax Credit Appear to be Waning

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Keep in mind that all of the charts in this series of posts are based on the seasonally-adjusted data provided by S&P. For the full source data behind this post, plus non-seasonally adjusted data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website (requires free registration). For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of September:

Eleven of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between August and September (down from sixteen in August). New York, Boston, Charlotte, Seattle, Dallas, Portland, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Cleveland all marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at LA’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

All three of LA’s tiers increased in September, but the rate of increase has definitely slowed from just a few months ago as the effects of the tax credit begin to wear off.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

With the tax credit having been extended until the spring, and pretty much all the benefit having been squeezed from low rates and tax giveaways, it seems likely that we will see some price deterioration in the next few months as we head through winter. Beyond that is anybody’s guess.

The October Market Wrap Up

Let’s take at look at some October numbers for Los Angeles County and see how they compare to a year ago.

Single-Family Homes

• 5,258 houses sold in October
• The median sales price was $325,000, down 8.5% from October 2008

Condos

• 1,632 condos sold in October
• The median sales price was $315,000, down 5.9% from October 2008

We got these numbers from DQNews.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These numbers are for Los Angeles County. To see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.

The $8,000 Home-Buyer Tax Credit Has Been Extended & Expanded

Earlier today, President Obama signed new legislation extending the deadline for the home buyer tax credit into 2010 and expanding it to include current home owners who are looking to buy a primary residence.

The Basic Requirements

You qualify for the tax credit if the:

• Home you’re buying will be your primary residence
• Purchase price isn’t more than $800,000

This credit is not a loan; it’s yours, but keep in mind you have to live in your new home for three years. If you sell the home in less than three years, you’ll have to pay back the money.

What’s Changed?

With the new legislation, buyers have more time to find a home and more buyers are eligible for the tax credit:

• New deadline: To qualify, you need to be in contract with a seller by April 30th & close on the home by June 30th (The previous deadline was November 30, 2009).
• Not just for first-time buyers anymore: Home buyers who’ve owned and occupied a home for at least five consecutive years during the past eight years are eligible for a credit up to $6,500.
• Increased income limits: Individuals making less than $125,000 and couples making less than $225,000 are eligible (The limits used to be $75K & $150K).

First-time buyers are eligible for a credit up to $8,000 on homes purchased between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. Qualified homeowners can a credit up to $6,500 on homes purchased between November 7, 2009 and June 30, 2010.

Bonus Link

You can check out the full text of the bill. Scroll about halfway down to sections 11 & 12:

• Sec. 11. Extension and Modification of First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.
• Sec. 12. Provisions to Enhance the Administration of the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.

Market Wrap Up for September

Let’s take at look at some September numbers for Los Angeles County and see how they compare to a year ago.

Single-Family Homes

• 5,071 houses sold in September
• The median sales price was $329,000, down 9% from September 2008

Condos

• 1,522 condos sold in September
• The median sales price was $319,000, down 9% from September 2008

We got these numbers from DQNews.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These numbers are for Los Angeles County. To see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.

What trends did you see in September?

Case-Shiller: Summer Surge Benefits High Tier Most

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Starting this month, we will be basing all of the charts in this series of posts on the seasonally-adjusted data provided by S&P. For the full source data behind this post, plus non-seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – August data is released in October).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of August:

Sixteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between July and August. Only Cleveland, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Seattle marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at Los Angeles’ latest tiered data, back through 2000:

LA’s high tier has risen the most in this sudden summer surge (+3.1% in three months). In many other markets the low tier is seeing a more pronounced advantage, my theory as to why this is not the case in Los Angeles is that prices across all tiers here had already fallen quite a bit further than they had in the markets outside California before this summer’s government intervention.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

According to a Reuters story from earlier today, Robert Shiller has described the sudden spike seen in many markets this summer as potential “bubble territory.” I agree. As I have discussed on these pages in recent months, the sudden and simultaneous nature of this price uptick does not bear any marks of a return to fundamentals, but instead seems to be driven almost entirely by a mad dash for cheap loans (interest rates in the 5s) and free money ($8k tax credit).

I’m a little bit concerned that by interrupting the natural correction of the housing market, recent government intervention is setting us up for even more pain down the road. I hope I am wrong.

Now We’re Showing More Homes for Sale, Even Faster!

Redfin’s database of homes for sale just got more comprehensive and faster in the greater LA area. Before, we got homes for sale directly from CLAW, which serves Los Angeles County, and MRMLS, which serves the Inland Empire and the South Bay. Now, we get those listings even faster from CARETS, (California Real Estate Technology Services), a larger database of Southern California Multiple Listing Services that real estate brokers use to list homes for sale.

Here’s what changed:

• Updated on the hour, every hour: We get updated listings from CLAW every hour. Before, we only could update them once a day.
• More homes for sale: We just added 145 more listings from CLAW and 217 more from MRMLS that we previously couldn’t show. There’s one catch: to see all the details for these homes for sale, MLS rules require that you sign in with a Redfin account or register with a verified email address before we can show you all the information.
• More amenities: Before, we couldn’t tell you whether the home has wood floors, if there’s a fireplace, whether the kitchen’s got marble counters. Now we can show all these details.

We plan on switching over even more Southern California MLS’s in the near future.

Questions about the updates? Just comment below or ask a question in our website forum.