Fishing for a Bottom in Toluca Lake

The U.S. Postal Service doesn’t recognize Toluca Lake by zip code; it is a careful collage of select segments of North Hollywood zip codes 91601 (north of Camarillo, east of Cahuenga) and 91602 (east of the Hollywood Freeway – purists might hold out for east of Lankershim Blvd.)   No matter.  Tolucans know their community is an unique enclave of upscale tranquility with immediate access to many of the entertainment industry’s production centers:  Burbank in a jewel box.

Toluca Lake’s fragmented nature and the sparse sales in recent months make understanding market trends problematic.  DataQuick’s sales statistics show only 10 single-family home sales in both zip codes combined in January, and just nine in February, and that includes large areas of North Hollywood.   According to Trulia.com, the average list price was down more than 11% in February from the month before, but the number of listings may be too small to be statistically valid.

I dropped in unannounced on a pair of long-time local realtors whose office is a stone’s throw from the irreplaceable Toluca diner and landmark Paty’s.  They say prices at the upper end seem to be holding up fairly well, at least for the time being, but define that segment upwards of $800,000:  “$700,000 is no longer the high end,” one said.  But he doesn’t believe the high end will emerge unscathed:  “It’s gonna hit everybody … it takes time.”

A two-minute walk from the realtors’ office presents a possible case in point.  This builder’s all-new 2008 Cape Cod spec house boasts five bedrooms and six baths in 4,050 sq. feet of living space.  It first came to market in February for $2,189,000, and has shed almost $300,000 in asking price since then.  But the veteran realtors I spoke with cast doubt on its prospects; they gauged its market value to be $1.5M or $1.6M tops, and suspect the builders will likely just break even on this project.  The fact that they’ve created a web site just for this state-of-the-art property suggests they know it will be a marketing challenge.