May 12, 2008

Home Sales Are On The Rise In Los Angeles

1661957 Home Sales Are On The Rise In Los Angeles

But, prices are still falling. (Yeah, I know. That’s no surprise.)

The Los Angeles Business Journal cites April sales increased 15% from the previous month. At the same time, the median price dropped 2% to $456,000. So apparently, we’re starting to get back on track in terms of serious homebuyers.

That increase is more typical of spring sales volume than what occurred a year ago as the region’s housing boom began to sputter: March-to-April 2007 sales fell nearly 4 percent.

There’s also more good news for prospective homebuyers. And bad news for prospective homesellers.

Cal Poly Pomona finance and real estate professor Michael Carney said he is worried about the sharp drop in prices, especially when compared to the last real estate bubble that burst in the early 1990s. He believes it may mean the bottom is even further off than most people expect.

“That prices are falling faster than sales is not a good sign in terms that the bottom is near,” said Carney, noting that in the 1990s housing bust it took almost six years for prices to drop 20 percent. “You’ll start seeing year-to-year sales volume pick up long before we see a turnaround in prices.”

For a median price in the mid-400,000s, you could buy a single-family residence in neighborhoods such as Alhambra, Baldwin Park, and La Mirada. In the LAX area that I cover, you could manage to find a decent two-bedroom, two-bathroom condo in Playa del Rey.


  • I understand your point of reference, Mark. My comment about getting back on track was more in reference to this portion of the article.
    "That increase is more typical of spring sales volume than what occurred a year ago as the region’s housing boom began to sputter: March-to-April 2007 sales fell nearly 4 percent."
    I believe your comment is in reference to this portion of the article.
    "Still, home sales are sharply down from a year ago when 5,096 homes were sold in April. In raw numbers there were 3,647 home sales last month, but that reflects a five-week HomeData reporting period. Adjusted to reflect the four-week period of a year ago, that number falls to 2,918 units – a 43 percent drop year-over-year."

    In other words, I'm not trying to say that the sales volume is the volume it was a year ago. What I'm saying is that there was a movement towards an increase in sales during the spring - which is more typical for this time of the year. Last year, it dropped instead of rising.
  • mark
    "So apparently, we’re starting to get back on track in terms of serious homebuyers."

    No we're not.

    Mo-over-Mo sales changes are subject to seasonable factors, as the article suggests. On a year-over-year basis, there was a 43 percent drop in sales.
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