Housing: The Wild Card in the Economic Recovery
This cover story in this week’s Business Week is a looooong story about the state of the housing market and its long-term implications for the health of the economy.
As Washington policymakers struggle to keep the U.S. out of recession, the swirling confusion over the housing market is making their job a lot tougher. Will American consumers keep shopping or be forced to pull back? Will banks lend freely or be hamstrung by mortgage defaults? What are the best policy options right now? Those and other important questions simply can’t be answered without a good idea of whether home prices will rise, flatten out, or keep dropping.
The magazine, after interviews with numerous experts, decides that prices will keep dropping –”an additional 25% over the next two to three years, returning values to their 2000 levels.”
Shocking though it might seem, a decline of 25% from here would merely reverse the market’s spectacular appreciation during the boom. It would put the national price level right back on its long-term growth trend line, a surprisingly modest 0.4% a year after inflation.
The rationale for the predicted drop:
Remember the two powerful forces that pushed [prices] up: lax lending standards and the conviction that housing is a fail-safe investment. Now both are working in reverse, depressing demand for housing faster than homebuilders can rein in supply. By reinstituting safeguards such as down payments and proof of income, lenders have disqualified thousands of potential buyers. And many people who do qualify have lost the desire to buy.
Other points:
- Denial is perpetuating the problem.
A Harris Interactive survey for Zillow.com in December found that 36% of homeowners thought their homes had increased in value over the past year, vs. 23% who thought they had decreased. That willful optimism translates directly into the record overhang of unsold existing homes: more than 4 million. - Tight credit is hindering sales.
A survey of real estate agents found that a third of planned home sales were canceled or delayed last fall because of loan problems. - The long-term outlook for housing isn’t promising.
When the huge boomer generation shuffles off, the nation’s housing needs will wane. That will create an oversupply unless builders see it coming and reduce construction. Judging from the recent overbuilding binge, though, their forecasting abilities leave a lot to be desired. - There is a bright side to all this.
[The housing crash] will force Americans to live within their means, which will enable the U.S. to work off some of its towering debt, says Peter D. Schiff, president of Darien (Conn.) brokerage Euro Pacific Capital, who was early in predicting the crash.
These are national predictions; every market is different. There are good deals to be had out there, to be sure; some homes in SoCal are selling for 50% off what they sold for two or three years ago. But if the experts are right about where prices are headed, deals should remain plentiful for the foreseeable future.
Recent Redfin posts:
Foreclosure Resales Highest in Glendale 91206
Foreclosure Central in the Valley
Foreclosures Selling for 1/2 Original Price
