October 1, 2008

Debt, the Engine of Prosperity, is Out of Fuel

soda debt 1 Debt, the Engine of Prosperity, is Out of FuelIf we break out the strategic reserves, $700 billion may keep the engine running…but for how long? Where will the fuel for debt come from after that?

I understand that businesses rely on banks from time to time for short-term funds to keep operations going and people employed. But why are American consumers (with “consumer” a synonym for “citizen”) constantly encouraged to go into debt?

Whether it is a new pickup truck, a home entertainment system, or a major appliance, your retailer has a financing plan for it. The product of this strategy is debt. The engine of our economy is debt.

The strategy is a failure and the engine is sputtering as home equity plummets and and easy credit dries up.

Why, if people are losing overpriced homes to foreclosure, should the government try to game the system? Shouldn’t home prices fall to affordable levels, allowing buyers to assume less debt? Why is our government’s solution a plan to rescue debt holders and provide more debt? I’m guessing there are reasons we would be frightened to know.

As Ken Blackwell’s editorial lamented today:

We have become a culture addicted to debt. It starts with 18-year-olds, where everyone getting a job is offered a credit card and everyone going to college is offered several, with the expectation of profits from interest accruing on balances.

The economic expansion of the past fifteen years has been built on a mountain of debt. Millions spend today with no thought of how they can pay tomorrow. Whereas you used to save and invest and wait for big purchases such as a new car, now you get it today and pay massive sums in interest as you finance it.

Our representatives in Washington haven’t admitted that leadership at all levels of our society has not just allowed, but encouraged banks, manufacturers, retailers, marketers, and salespeople to push debt on customers. Debt that is threatening to bankrupt our country.

Irvine Renter observes, “you can’t take it with you” is a rational argument for abusing home equity lines of credit. Why not just pull out as much cash as possible to finance the lifestyle our 24/7 marketing culture is selling? How’s this for an answer: Its unpatriotic!

There’s my rant. Thanks to Mene Tekel, who titled this post’s photo “Get in Debt, Get Fat, Die.”

For those who have been patriotically saving up for the bubble to burst, these attractive properties in north central Pasadena are already nicely renovated, whether paid for by home equity line of credit or other means:

1508 Sinaloa Avenue
$755,000 (originally $899,000)
3 bed/3 bath
2,196 sq.ft.
$344 per sq.ft.
On Redfin 199 days
This is a lender-approved short sale reduced three times. It last sold in July 2006 for $840,000.

745 E. Rio Grande Street
$749,000
3 bed/2.75 bath
1,550 sq.ft.
$483 per sq.ft.
On Redfin 142 days
A City of Pasadena Landmark Property, this looks charming. It last sold July 2005 for $685,000

965 E. Howard Street
$998,000
3 bed/2 bath
2,120 sq.ft.
$471 per sq.ft.
On Redfin 29 days
This 1909 Craftsman looks completely restored and sits on a large 13,000+ sq.ft. lot. It last sold in June 2004 for $811,000.


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  • It's not just the culture of debt that's sold to us from High School on up. That would be an ADDITION problem. We are dealing with a MULTIPLICATION problem. Some of the biggest multipliers were/are:
    "The only place to invest is Real Estate."
    "The lower interest rate means you can afford so much more home."
    "Don't worry about the variable rate increasing, 'cause you can re-fi again before that happens."
    "Real Estate in So-Cal goes up an average of 25% every year." (implied: forever without any down cycles)
    "That equity in your home isn't 'working' for you. Take it out and put it to work." (followed by "The only place to invest is RE.")
    "Home-ownership is the American Dream." (It's not. Business-ownership is. If your home, be it Apt, Condo, or Car, fits your income and budget so you can save and invest wisely, broadly, then you can have the dream of financial freedom. If not, you will work until you die, like in most third world countries.)
    "We need to increase lower-income and minority home-ownership by 50%" - George Bush 2002
    (Now we've increased foreclosures among the same group by 150%)
    "The average homeowner re-fi's or moves every 3-5 years, so why pay down the principal? Get an interest-only loan and keep your money." (Until the market cycles down and your interest-only balance is $100k higher than you can sell or re-fi for.)
    "The best bet in the world is the american homeowner. Mortgages are the best investment." - Senior Investors and Hedge-fund Managers

    Want to win? Learn to recognize the incentives for those giving you advice or selling you financial products.
    Get a plan. Those who have a plan, for their budget, their short-term money, and for their long-term money, are sitting pretty, relaxed, and even making more progress financially than during more normal times.
    Short-term money won't have any exposure to the stock-market. Long-term money has a plan to AUTOMATICALLY take advantage of the ups and downs of the market for higher returns.
    And this IS available to the lower and middle-income earner/saver/investor. But not from most companies.
    The grease for major industry is overnight lending. Major long-term debt, even in industry, is a gamble against future growth in earnings.
    The same is true for you. When you take on long-term debt, you are gambling on-going monthly savings plus interest you could have been receiving, but are now paying out, against the possibility that you will be able to make up lost ground in time to have some kind of retirement or independence before you are too old to employ for a meaningful wage.
    What can you do?
    Develop another source of income.
    Re-structure debt payments to free up cash to start saving.
    Find better, less expensive insurance products and save/invest the difference.
    Identify "optional" expenses like extra cable channels, and save/invest the difference. Use coupons, and take the extra step to save/invest the coupon savings!
    Read "The Millionaire Next Door" and learn the Smart Basics of how money works, for you and against you.
    Planning, planning, and more planning. Discipline is freedom. Dollar-Cost Averaging. Automated Rebalancing. A healthy cash emergency fund. Buying "on the dips". It's really not that hard. But it's REALLY EASY to get into trouble based on what we're told and sold on a daily basis.
  • Edward
    Here is another interesting, related article I found

    http://www.slate.com/id/219894...

    All of this has inspired me to consider writing a book, actually : ) Hopefully people will wake up. I'm honestly not too optimistic about that, though, and feel that our society will continue to crumble. It just saddens me deeply that the responsible ones, too, will have to pay the price.

    Edward Galstyan
    lakersman818@yahoo.com
  • Elise Kalfayan
    Jean and Edward,

    Thank you. I hope that you and other people who share your concerns can influence everyone around you and build a trend toward saying "no" to more debt. Our society encourages debt, but no one is forcing us to assume individual (as opposed to national) debt.
  • Edward
    Thank you, Elise!!!

    These were the exact thoughts in my mind before reading this. I don't understand how the US is going to expect to continue on with their current lifestyle at this rate for much longer. What bothers me most, though, is that this bailout encourages more debt rather than encouraging a more prudent lifestyle of saving. Instead of the gov't improving our lives they are worsening it! I've just been seething the past couple weeks with everything going on. I could type on forever about this, but I'll cut it short here.

    Edward
  • Jean
    The founding fathers warned against this very problem (combined with the dangerous fact that the Fed is a private entity, so our government doesn't print or control its own money):

    "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks...will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.

    ... The modern theory of the perpetuation of debt has drenched the earth with blood, and crushed its inhabitants under burdens ever accumulating."

    -Thomas Jefferson
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