Archive for March, 2009
March 31, 2009
Let’s check in on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – January data is released in March).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of January:
January 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.9%
Year to Year: Down 25.8%
Change from Peak: Down 39.2% in 28 months
The following chart shows the Los Angeles HPI scaled such that the September 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Los Angeles HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (September 2003).
The pattern of decreasing year-over-year drops that we saw in November and December’s data continued in Los Angeles for January, with year-over-year price drops decreasing by 0.6 percentage points. It will be interesting to keep an eye on this data and see if the trend continues.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Los Angeles’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Home prices in Los Angeles have fallen nearly as far in the 28 months since their peak as they have down in San Diego in 38 months. Of the seven markets Redfin services, price drops here have easily been the fastest.
March 25, 2009
Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.
The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.
For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.
First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:
Of the 106 cities/towns we ranked in Los Angeles County this month, 37 (35%) had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. Westlake Village retained it’s #1 spot from last month. Six other cities also carried over from last month’s top ten.
Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten Los Angeles County neighborhoods for price reductions:
Of the 165 neighborhoods we ranked in Los Angeles County this month, 70 (42%) had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. Beverly Center, South Park, West Adams, and West Long Beach all carried over from last month’s top ten neighborhoods. These are the neighborhoods where you might want to look for sellers that are more anxious to sell.
We’re still seeing a degree of consistency in which neighborhoods and cities have the most price reductions. Are sellers in these locations just not very good at finding the right market price in the first place, or are they so anxious to sell that they drop the price early and often? Either way, the regions with the really high percentage of reduced-price homes are probably a good place to go bargain-hunting.
March 24, 2009
Let’s have an update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discount off the asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in the Los Angeles area and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.
Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:
The overall discount for the Los Angeles area inched up slightly from last month’s 3.7% up to 3.8% this month. Last month’s most discounted zip code 90005 dropped to #3 on the list, with what may still be the nation’s most recognizable zip code moving into #1 this month.
Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:
Of the 6,984 sales we tracked in the 2-month period, 170 homes sold for more than 20% off the asking price, while 2001 homes sold for more than asking.
As a whole, the Los Angeles area is trending toward slightly larger discounts. As we continue to watch this data we will be able to get a better picture of what sale-to-list discounts tell us about the overall health of the local real estate market. Once we get enough data points, we’ll be able to plot the overall discount trend on a line chart for an interesting picture of the market.
March 17, 2009
We were checking out Los Angeles real estate blogs and here’s my list of what I think are the best.
Top LA Real Estate Blogs
- Curbed LA, “From the studio lots to the downtown lofts. From the beachfront bungalows to the canyon views…”
- L.A. Land by the LA Times, “The rapidly changing landscape of the Los Angeles real estate market and beyond”
- the Real Estalker, “For better or worse, we are a culture obsessed with celebrity and celebrity lifestyle.”
- Apartment Therapy, for once you’ve found a place
Top SoCal Blogs
Regional Real Estate Blogs
- Manhattan Beach Confidential, “A Manhattan Beach Real Estate Blog with Bubble Talk, Listing Reviews, Pricing News & More”
- Westside Bubble, “Tracking the real estate bubble on the Westside of Los Angeles, especially in Santa Monica … available housing inventory, highlights/lowlights, and the larger economy. ”
- Santa Monica Distress Monitor, “If you aren’t embarrassed by your offer, it isn’t low enough”
- Long Beach Housing Blog, “Long Beach used to be the “affordable” alternative to OC and LA…”
- Arcadia Housing Blog, “Tracking the Arcadia and San Gabriel Valley Housing Market”>
- Underculver, “Mostly 90232/90230/Culver City”
- Westside RE Meltdown, “The website that chronicles recent price declines, on the westside of Los Angeles”
- LA South Bay Beach Cities Housing Bubble
Good Regional Blogs of varying size
Good Agent Blogs
Yes, we’re linking to the competition…
Your Turn
It’s always dangerous writing these kind of posts when you don’t live in the area. So, which blogs do you follow to stay on top of the LA real estate scene?
Thanks to some of our forums posters for helping out.
March 11, 2009
Beginning with February, Redfin is publishing monthly Southern California real estate stats, summarizing what we’re up to in the market, and how the market is changing. This is our first crack at it, which means we’ll only present a few numbers for February.
Market Activity
- 31,978 new MLS listings (the current total is 127,314).
- 30,028 price reductions.
- 239,241 homes were added to Southern California Redfin users’ favorites list
Brokerage Activity
- 740 homes were toured by our clients through Redfin field agents.
- 30 people attended our home buying class.
- 207 clients made offers (real estate owned (REOs) listings made up 39% of Redfin’s offers on homes since the beginning of the year).
- 23 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction surveys and posted an online review.
- 96% of our February Southern California Area clients would recommend Redfin to a friend.
What else do you want to know? Your comments and suggestions are at the core of our goal to better serve our customers. We’d love to hear from you. If you haven’t already, join the Los Angeles/Orange County Redfin forum and sign up for listing alerts and our monthly newsletter. As always, thanks for using Redfin!
