Archive for April, 2009
April 28, 2009
It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – February data is released in April).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of February:
February 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.0%
Year to Year: Down 24.1%
Change from Peak: Down 40.4% in 29 months
The following chart shows the Los Angeles HPI scaled such that the September 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Los Angeles HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (August 2003).
The rate of decline in Los Angeles continued the moderating trend that began with November’s data. Both Los Angeles and San Diego climbed back up from 26-27% yearly declines to “just” 23-24% declines, as can be seen here:
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Los Angeles’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Home prices have fallen faster since the peak in Los Angeles than every Case-Shiller market but Las Vegas and Phoenix, but it would appear that November’s data may have indeed been the first sign of an eventual stabilization. However, even if that is the case, the current rate of improvement would put home prices flattening out sometime in early 2011.
April 24, 2009
Time for another update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in the Los Angeles area and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.
Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:
At 3.8%, the overall discount for the Los Angeles area came in the same as last month. 90210 held the top spot, while the rest of the top ten shifted about slightly.
Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:
Of the 6,187 sales we tracked in the 1.5-month period, 706 homes sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 743 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.
We’ve been tracking the discount trend for three months now, and have seen Los Angeles’ overall discount hold steady at 3.7%-3.8% off. It will be interesting to see what the spring and summer bring to these stats.
April 13, 2009
We’re kicking off a new series on Sweet Digs called Redfin By The Numbers. In this series, we’ll take a look at our brokerage stats to see how what our clients are doing right now reflects what’s happening in the market.
Let’s take a look at Redfin’s March numbers from Southern California.
Our Clients Love Our Fanatical Service
We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in March from our clients in Southern California:
In these surveys, Redfin asks customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.
More People Are Looking At Foreclosed Properties
In March, our Southern California clients were busy seeing homes and making offers:
*In the previous post with the February numbers, we reported the number of unsigned offers we received from Redfin clients. Starting with this post, we’re tracking the number of signed offers our clients submitted to listing agents.
We also had a great home-buying class in March. About 55 people came to the class to learn about the home-buying process and meet our agents. There were a lot of questions about the first-time home-buyer tax credit. Check out the slide deck from the class.
It’s Taking 42 Days To Close On A Home
In March, the time it took our clients in Southern California to close on their homes was slightly longer than in February:
- For our clients who bought re-sales, the average time from initial agreement on terms to the close of the deal was 42 days, up from 40 days in February.
- All of our clients successfully financed their homes, the same as in February
- 5 of our deals, or 7.4%, failed the home inspection, up from 3.4% in February.
- Of our closed deals, the average discount off list price for homes sold was 4.57%, up from 3.82% in February.
Look For Our April Report
We’ll be back next month with a report on what happened in April. What numbers would you like to see in our April report?
