May 26, 2009
It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – March data is released in May).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Los Angeles area (which Case-Shiller defines as LA and Orange Counties) as of March:
March 2009
Month to Month: Down 1.4%
Year to Year: Down 22.3%
Change from Peak: Down 41.3% in 30 months
The following chart shows the Los Angeles HPI scaled such that the September 2006 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the Los Angeles HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (July 2003).
Los Angeles’ year-over-year price drops have been moderating now for five months. Both Los Angeles and San Diego are now clocking in with yearly declines of “only” 22%:
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare Los Angeles’ performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Southern California definitely appears to be on the leading edge of the national real estate trends. With prices still falling over 20% in a year, it’s far too early to call this a sign of a recovery, but it could definitely be a sign of an imminent bottom. The question then becomes how long will we stay at that bottom?
May 7, 2009
Let’s look at our brokerage stats for Southern California to see how what our clients are doing right now reflects what’s happening in the market.
Our Clients Love Our Fanatical Service
We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in March from our clients in Southern California:
- 44 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, up from 36 in March.
- 43 of those clients, or 98%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, up from 97% in March.
In these surveys, Redfin asks customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.
People Are Out Looking At Homes
In April, our Southern California clients were busy seeing homes and making offers:
- Redfin clients toured 1,695 homes in March, up from 1,457 homes toured in March.
- Our clients submitted 72 signed offers on homes, up from 68 in March.
- Our Southern California agents were busy working on these signed offers:
o Katrina Jauregui: 28 offers
o Anna Nevares: 19 offers
o Joyti Goundar: 14 offers
o Angela Creech: 11 offers
- 25 of those offers or 35% were on bank-owned foreclosures, down from 53% in March.
We also had 72 people come to our April home-buying class to the class to learn about the home-buying process and meet our agents. Check out the slide deck from the class.
It’s Taking 44 Days To Close On A Home
In March, the time it took our clients in Southern California to close on their homes was slightly longer than in March:
- For our clients who bought re-sales, the average time from initial agreement on terms to the close of the deal was 44 days, up from 42 days in March.
- 1 of our clients failed to get financing for their home; all of our clients successfully financed their homes in March.
- 1 of our client’s deals failed the home inspection, down from 5 in March.
- Of our closed deals, the average discount off list price for homes sold was 4.93%, up from 4.57% in March.
Look For Our May Report
We’ll be back next month with our analysis of the May numbers. Let us know what you’d like to see in that report.
