October 23, 2007

Loss from Fire… the aftermath?

Wildfire

I was just reading the “Prairie Fire” post on the Irvine Housing Blog about how the fires might help the housing market. Someone had commented on an OC Register article that “Sales inventory will be absorbed by many looking for shelter.” As the author of the blog noted, “Hundreds of homes have been damaged, and someone has died due to these fires, and someone actually looks at this event as a positive event that will help out the value of their home. I guess if bulls get desperate enough, they can solve the excess inventory problem by burning down the houses.”

I have to admit that the thought did cross my mind about what the effect would be of the fires on the housing market. Would it be a “helpful” boom? I even considered posting about it yesterday but decided it was a little too gruesome. To look at who will gain from this tragedy right now just seems wrong.

To use my non-compassionate and analytical side (is that my left side of my brain?) for a moment, I really doubt there will be a notable effect on the market in Orange County. San Diego might be a different story, but for Orange County, there just hasn’t been enough homes lost (yet… but I think we’re doing better today, so there shouldn’t be much more of a loss, right?… hoping so anyway) to really impact the inventory levels. In San Diego, over 1,000 homes have been lost. Now that’s a huge number, likely to have a sizable impact. In Orange County, we’ve lost 12 homes. Yes, it’s still a huge loss and quite sad. However, unless residents come from San Diego and other affected areas, would there really be a big impact to the OC market? Feel free to share your thoughts/comments below.

I can’t express enough how saddened I am by what these fires have done to people’s lives. It could have been any of us. My thoughts go out to everyone affected. These fires are truly a tragedy. I hope we can gain control soon, luckily the weather is said to be getting better.

For those in San Diego or have friends/family there, here’s a listing of all the SD homes lost so far: Burned homes and businesses, listed by address


  • Yeah, those that need to lease may be fill up some of those homes on the market as for sale or lease (where the homeowners just want to get out of whatever situation they're in). But I just don't see anything remotely like a "turnaround".
  • brian
    I was thinking about this too... I think the impact on home prices will be minimal. Many of the people that have lost there homes will likely be covered by their insurance policies. These people will rebuild -- they bought or built where they did because they like the area, and know the risks.

    In the short term, there will likely be effects to the rental markets in all of southern California, as those displaced will need somewhere to live while the rebuilding is taking place.
blog comments powered by Disqus
close