10 Years To Recovery?
Three respected and influential OC residents gave their two cents on the housing market last week at a luncheon at the Pacific Club in Newport Beach. According to the OC Register’s article “Nobel prize-winner comes to town,” George Argyros, “real-estate mogul and former ambassador”, and James Dotti, Chapman University President and economist, were at the luncheon to honor the addition of Nobel laureate Vernon L. Smith (“father of ‘experimental economics’”) to Chapman’s faculty. The three were willing to share their thoughts on the market. Some excerpts from the article of interest…
“Asked how long he thought it would take for the housing market to get back on its feet, Smith said he expects it will take longer than the previous housing slump, because this bubble was bigger when it burst, and there is a larger backlog of unsold homes…
Argyros, a real-estate-investor, and Doti each said they expect it to take 10 years for the market to rebound to last year’s prices.
Asked about the volatility in the recent stock market, Smith said he was surprised by the New Year crash because he believed stock prices ‘were actually very reasonable’ except for housing and mortgage companies. ‘And it isn’t as if nobody knew about that.’
‘What kind of blindsided us is the extent to which that (housing crash) has bubbled over into other areas of the economy,’ he said.”
In Jeff Collins’ post on Lansner’s blog, Collins compares these comments to other “experts” and adds a historical view from the 90′s:
“The slump of the 1990s lasted seven years. Argyros’ and Doti’s view that recovery is 10 years off is longer than other economists have said. Economists speaking at the California Association of Realtors convention in Anaheim last fall, for example, put the recovery at 2 1/2 to three years off. Others expect a long, slow recovery to begin sometime in 2009.”
What do you think? Is recovery 10 years off? Or will be feeling some relief sooner?
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