Irvine’s Oak Creek: How Low Will We Go?

“The median [Orange County home selling price] crashed up through the half-million mark during local housing’s long upswing in April 2004. This latest median is 22.5% below June ’07’s high of $645,000.”
—Jonathan Lansner, Orange County Register, April 4, 2008

Today we’ll take a look at some housing market activity in Irvine’s Oak Creek neighborhood and see how this activity provides some insight into the Orange County housing market.

First up, 86 Danbury Lane. This condo sold on January 8, 2008 for $545,000. Listing price was $549,000, and at one time the asking price for this home was $585,000. However, since the sellers bought this home in 2002 for $358,000, they still made a profit. 86 Danbury was on Redfin for over 3 months.

Up next, 34 Poppy, Irvine. In spite of being on the market for over 300 days, this 2 bedroom/2 bath, 1344 SF, 2000 condo is still on the market. At one time the asking price was $589,000. Currently, the asking price is $489,000. Since the hopeful sellers bought this home on April 16, 2003 for $613,909, they will be taking a lost.

Up next, 3 Madagascar. This 2 bedroom/2.5 bath, 1508 SF, 2000 condo sold on October 12, 2007 for $527,715. At one time the asking price was $629,000. Since the sellers bought this home on September 2005 for $620,000, they took a loss. Back on October 7, 2002, this home sold for $365,500.

Finally, 14 Geranium. This condo was on the market for over 2 months and sold on October 31, 2007 for $510,000. Since the sellers bought this home in June of 2005 for $560,000, these sellers also took a lost. Back in June 2001, the home sold for $289,500.

This sales activity in Irvine’s Oak Creek tells a common Orange County story: If you bought your home far enough in the past, you will do just fine and sell your home at a decent profit. However, if you bought in the recent past, you’ll most likely take a bath. So the next question is what is that magic past-sales date when profit turns to loss. Of course this date will vary on a case-by-case basis, but from the unscientific survey above, it looks like 2003 is a good candidate.

However, Jon Lansner’s blog provides a more scientific date for our purpose here. He states that according to DataQuick the median selling price for an Orange County home is back down to $500,000. The last time that the Orange County median home price was at this level was April 2004 (“O.C. home median prices slides to $500,000 same as early 2004″).

Draw your own conclusion on what the accurate date is for this profit-turns-to-loss past sales date. I’d say that currently early 2004 is a good candidate, but it won’t be long before this profit-turns-to-loss date is sometime in 2003.

For more information on sales activity in the Oak Creek neighborhood in Irvine, see “Sold in Irvine’s Oak Creek.“