April 15, 2008

Panic Party: You’re Invited (and Bring a Friend)

A recent poll conducted by the Associated Press measures the mood of homebuyers, sellers and owners.  The results are a little surprising and extremely daunting.  You can click the link to read the entire article, but I wanted to summarize the statistics for you because that is the part that is really telling.

panic Panic Party: Youre Invited (and Bring a Friend)

  • 60% of people polled said they definitely will not buy a home in the next two years
  • Only 11% are certain or very likely to buy a home soon
  • Nearly 3 in 10 people said they are concerned their home’s value will decline over the next two years
  • 14% of homeowners said they are worried about not being able to make their mortgage payments in the next six months
  • One in ten homeowners have ARMs, down by half from two years ago
  • One in four people believe real estate values will fall in their neighborhoods
  • Four in ten think home prices will rise
  • 35% of those polled felt current home prices are just about right
  • 50% believe real estate is overpriced
  • One in ten said they think housing is under priced
  • 9 million homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth
  • 43% of homebuyers worry that their purchases will depreciate over the next two years
  • 59% believe this is a good time to buy residential real estate
  • Two thirds believe it is harder for first time homebuyers to purchase now as opposed to two years ago and half think it is a very difficult climate for virgin buyers

Despite the sour tone of these beliefs, there are a few shiny ones among the bunch.  The vast majority of people do believe this is a good market for homebuyers.  The number of homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages has shrunk by half.  While the general consensus is that this market is not a favorable one for first time homebuyers, that is more a reflection of changes in lending than price and I take that as a positive turn.  The biggest source of panic is for homeowners who are upside down or stuck in an unmanageable financing arrangement, sellers who purchased during the height of the bubble, and buyers who want to purchase a home with marginal value.  Who’s gonna climb back on the proverbial fence?  Looks like most.

Recent Orange County Sweet Digs Posts:

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Housing Prices Declining? A Redfin Agenda?

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Fools Rush In (Or Not At All)

Comparing Irvine, Open Houses

Signs of The Times


  • Carol
    You are right on point southoc.

    Dillon, I'm not sure I agree with your pairing of the numbers. You are right that one in ten people (if you assume the entire planet is included) is a big number. I don't read the article that way; 11% of the people polled say they plan to buy in the near future, so I would do the 50% calculation based on that. I know four people in my immediate circle of friends who have bought homes in Southern California in the past 3 months. Given that I only have five friends, that's a pretty phenomenal statistic and way higher than the national average!!
  • Dillon
    "* Only 11% are certain or very likely to buy a home soon"
    "* One in ten said they think housing is under priced"

    Are these the same people?

    One in ten is a lot of people. Even if just half of them actually buys in the next year, that's still a lot of activity.

    I don't think these national polls reflect the sentiment in the Southern California market.
  • I found this story interesting as well, particularly the part about how a majority think it's a good time to be a homebuyer. Well, it is a good time to be a homebuyer relative to 2006 or 2007. It's a good time to buy a house for $500,000 that was sold for $650,000 during the bubble. But it's not a good time to buy a home compared to a "normal" market because it is clear there will be further declines. What if the house is only worth $450,000 in December? Well, guess it will actually be a better time to be a homebuyer then.

    It's not surprising, though, because I run into this kind of sentiment a lot - people see it's a buyer's market, and prices are down, and so they connect the dots and think it's a good time to buy a home. Most don't look any deeper to understand what's really going on - a bad correction that, according to leading indicators like sales numbers and foreclosure counts - is not finished.
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