Comments on: Panic Party: You’re Invited (and Bring a Friend) http://blog.redfin.com/orangecounty/2008/04/panic_party_youre_invited_and_bring_a_friend.html Redfin Orange County Sweet Digs Sat, 21 Nov 2009 07:08:36 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.1 hourly 1 By: Carol http://blog.redfin.com/orangecounty/2008/04/panic_party_youre_invited_and_bring_a_friend.html/comment-page-1#comment-6335 Carol Wed, 16 Apr 2008 00:32:04 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/orangecounty/2008/04/panic_party_youre_invited_and_bring_a_friend.html#comment-6335 You are right on point southoc. Dillon, I'm not sure I agree with your pairing of the numbers. You are right that one in ten people (if you assume the entire planet is included) is a big number. I don't read the article that way; 11% of the people polled say they plan to buy in the near future, so I would do the 50% calculation based on that. I know four people in my immediate circle of friends who have bought homes in Southern California in the past 3 months. Given that I only have five friends, that's a pretty phenomenal statistic and way higher than the national average!! You are right on point southoc.

Dillon, I’m not sure I agree with your pairing of the numbers. You are right that one in ten people (if you assume the entire planet is included) is a big number. I don’t read the article that way; 11% of the people polled say they plan to buy in the near future, so I would do the 50% calculation based on that. I know four people in my immediate circle of friends who have bought homes in Southern California in the past 3 months. Given that I only have five friends, that’s a pretty phenomenal statistic and way higher than the national average!!

]]> By: Dillon http://blog.redfin.com/orangecounty/2008/04/panic_party_youre_invited_and_bring_a_friend.html/comment-page-1#comment-6330 Dillon Tue, 15 Apr 2008 16:33:39 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/orangecounty/2008/04/panic_party_youre_invited_and_bring_a_friend.html#comment-6330 "* Only 11% are certain or very likely to buy a home soon" "* One in ten said they think housing is under priced" Are these the same people? One in ten is a lot of people. Even if just half of them actually buys in the next year, that's still a lot of activity. I don't think these national polls reflect the sentiment in the Southern California market. “* Only 11% are certain or very likely to buy a home soon”
“* One in ten said they think housing is under priced”

Are these the same people?

One in ten is a lot of people. Even if just half of them actually buys in the next year, that’s still a lot of activity.

I don’t think these national polls reflect the sentiment in the Southern California market.

]]> By: southoctracker http://blog.redfin.com/orangecounty/2008/04/panic_party_youre_invited_and_bring_a_friend.html/comment-page-1#comment-6329 southoctracker Tue, 15 Apr 2008 15:37:46 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/orangecounty/2008/04/panic_party_youre_invited_and_bring_a_friend.html#comment-6329 I found this story interesting as well, particularly the part about how a majority think it's a good time to be a homebuyer. Well, it is a good time to be a homebuyer relative to 2006 or 2007. It's a good time to buy a house for $500,000 that was sold for $650,000 during the bubble. But it's not a good time to buy a home compared to a "normal" market because it is clear there will be further declines. What if the house is only worth $450,000 in December? Well, guess it will actually be a better time to be a homebuyer then. It's not surprising, though, because I run into this kind of sentiment a lot - people see it's a buyer's market, and prices are down, and so they connect the dots and think it's a good time to buy a home. Most don't look any deeper to understand what's really going on - a bad correction that, according to leading indicators like sales numbers and foreclosure counts - is not finished. I found this story interesting as well, particularly the part about how a majority think it’s a good time to be a homebuyer. Well, it is a good time to be a homebuyer relative to 2006 or 2007. It’s a good time to buy a house for $500,000 that was sold for $650,000 during the bubble. But it’s not a good time to buy a home compared to a “normal” market because it is clear there will be further declines. What if the house is only worth $450,000 in December? Well, guess it will actually be a better time to be a homebuyer then.

It’s not surprising, though, because I run into this kind of sentiment a lot – people see it’s a buyer’s market, and prices are down, and so they connect the dots and think it’s a good time to buy a home. Most don’t look any deeper to understand what’s really going on – a bad correction that, according to leading indicators like sales numbers and foreclosure counts – is not finished.

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