Archive for September, 2008
September 30, 2008
I noticed something in today’s price reductions… you can buy yourself a single family home in Orange County for less than $300,000. Sure, it’s in Santa Ana, but even a few years back you were not able to get your hands on anything single family for less than $450,000, not even in Santa Ana. Most homes under $300k are in Santa Ana now, but I’m sure it’s not for long. Just consider Santa Ana as the “trend setter” for price reductions for the County.
518 S Ross St, Santa Ana 92701
3 bed/1 bath; 1,246 sq ft; built in 1921
Price History:
Aug 21, 2008: Listed for $325,000
Sep 9, 2008: Reduced to $308,750
Sep 29, 2008: Reduced to $293,312 (down 21.0% from original)
2329 W Borchard Ave, Santa Ana 92704
3 bed/1 bath; 1,011 sq ft; built in 1950
Price History:
Jan 29, 2008: Listed for $520,000
Feb 23, 2008: Reduced to $499,900
Feb 27, 2008: Reduced to $439,900
Mar 19, 2008: Reduced to $352,900
May 22, 2008: Reduced to $325,000
Aug 13, 2008: Reduced to $305,000
Aug 20, 2008: Reduced to $300,000
Aug 25, 2008: Reduced to $299,999
Sep 29, 2008: Reduced to $289,900 (down 44.3% from original)
2313 W Anahurst Pl, Santa Ana 92704
3 bed/2 bath; 1,202 sq ft; built in 1958
Price History:
Jul 31, 2008: Listed for $380,000
Aug 4, 2008: Reduced to $350,000
Aug 7, 2008: Reduced to $320,000
Aug 11, 2008: Reduced to $309,000
Sep 29, 2008: Reduced to $280,000 (down 26.3% from original)
2074 S Standard Ave, Santa Ana 92707
2 bed/1 bath; 785 sq ft; built in 1946
Price History:
Aug 19, 2008: Listed for $219,900
Sep 10, 2008: Reduced to $212,900
Sep 29, 2008: Reduced to $204,900 (down 6.8% from original)
September 30, 2008
I was surprised yesterday morning to hear that the House had rejected the $700 billion bailout package. Surprised, because I thought its passage was a sure thing. And surprised at my own reaction to it.
Part of me was happy it hadn’t passed, because the whole thing has smelled fishy from the start. Frankly, I’m not fully understanding what’s going on, and I’m not convinced that a $700 infusion from the government is going to help. And I’m confused: If Republicans favor less government and less regulation, why is the administration so eager for this bill to pass?
Part of me is scared, as I watch my IRA’s value plummet day after day and worry whether my husband and I will lose our jobs.
And part of me is angry — at the irresponsible and reckless behavior that got us into a mess I have no control over.
Apparently I’m not alone — look at the results of this MSNBC poll asking Americans what the next step should be. About 47% of respondents want the rescue plan renegotiated and passed immediately, and about 37% say we should let the chips fall where they may. (The rest want a brand-new solution.)
Tonight, I flipped on MSNBC and watched Rachel Maddow interview Laura Tyson, an Obama financial adviser, who gave the most cogent explanation I’ve heard yet about what’s going on. She said the word “bailout” is a mischaracterization; rather, the country is “in the midst of a massive credit contraction” that is “strangling the economy” and making it impossible for anyone to borrow money for businesses, student loans, or consumer purchases. This, she said, will lead to lost revenue, jobs, income and production, and the stock-market losses are reactions to the anticipated economic paralysis.
That makes sense. Tyson says she thinks that the reason the bill didn’t pass is because people don’t fully understand what’s going on, and she said that’s the fault of our leaders. One of the major duties of a leader, she said, is educating constituents.
I’m sure it will take a long, long time before any of us are fully educated as to what caused this crisis. In the meantime, we’re at the mercy of the financial markets and our government, neither of which has served us well, or earned our trust. Most Americans believe it’s their fault we’re in this predicament to begin with.
I can only hope that this fiasco is a wake-up call to everyone who overborrowed, overspent, and took too many chances with their/our money. But I don’t think it will, because most Americans are uneducated not only about the country’s finances, but also their own.
Recent Redfin posts:
Another Slam for Homeowners
The Irvine Market Report: Detached Home Stats, September 2008
Tustin: The Tale of Two Brooks
September 29, 2008
As if homeowners aren’t taking hits left and right, it seems there is another hit to try and dodge – HOA’s.
One thing localites have to deal with here are HOA fees. The OC Register reports:
Homeowners associations exist to manage the common property shared by a group of homes or condominiums. About 11 million Californians, or a third of the state’s population, live in homes with homeowner associations, according to the Laguna Hills-based California Association of Community Managers.
It seems no matter where you live they are there, ready and waiting for us. The article reports a new problem – delinquent HOA fees. They reported an increase in delinquencies from Merit Property Agency, and I can only guess it’s the same at other agencies. Even if you’re not delinquent, this affects you.
When accounts go delinquent the HOA hurts. They lose interest on the amount they would be putting into savings to accrue interest. Projects that are in need of funds get put on the back burner. What can be done? Not much. As we’re seeing today, lots of markets are frozen until the economy starts to pick up. So if you’re ready to send another brash email to your HOA management company about that tree that’s been needing trimming for some time now, be nice. They’re probably just as annoyed as you are!
September 28, 2008
Note: The following numbers are from Redfin’s Irvine “Overview of Homes for Sale” page. This page includes the Irvine inventory and pricing numbers as well as the associated charts and graphs. So if you would like to see the charts and graphs, click on the above mentioned overview page link.
Following are the 2008 detached home statistics for Irvine.
For months the Irvine housing numbers, with some slight variations, have been telling the same story. In short, the Irvine housing market was in a holding pattern. As shown in yesterday’s post, Irvine condo housing numbers are still telling the same holding-pattern story. However, the numbers for detached homes in Irvine are telling a different story. As shown by the Median-Sold-Price and Median-List-Sales-Price/Square-Foot numbers provided below, the detached numbers tell of a housing market with price reductions. If these numbers hold in the coming month, this month’s housing numbers in Irvine might turn out to be a bellwether for things to come.
- Median List Sales Price:
On September 17, 2008: $895K
On August 29, 2008: $889K
On July 20, 2008: $939,431 (Source: Altos Research)
- Median Sold Price*:
On September 17, 2008: $683K
On August 29, 2008: $705K
- Median List Sales Price/Square Foot:
On September 17, 2008: $385
On August 29, 2008: $388
- Median Sold Price/Square Foot*:
On September 17, 2008: $338
On August 29, 2008: $351
- Median Days on Market*:
On September 17, 2008: 84
On August 29, 2008: 85
- Number of Homes on the Market (Inventory)*:
On September 17, 2008: 423 (11 are bank-owned; 17 are for sale by owner)
On August 29, 2008: 436
- % Homes with Price Reductions/Median # Reductions/Median Total % Reduction*:
On September 17, 2008: 46.3%/2/5.8%
On August 29, 2008: 46.2%/2/6.2%
- Market Action Index (Source: Altos Research):
On September 14, 2008: 17.33
On August 24, 2008: 17.28
On July 20, 2008: 17.00
Note: The Altos Market Action Index shows the balance between potential buyers and sellers, in other words,
the balance between supply and demand. Above 30 is a sellers’ market; below 30 is a buyers’ market. Also note that Altos numbers are for detached homes only (condos are not included) and that the Altos median sales price and median price per square foot is for the list price not the sold price.
*Based on homes sold or taken off market in the last 90 days. These include MSL-listed, for-sale-by-owner, and bank-foreclosure homes.
Also, according to DQ News, in August 2008, the combined number of condo and detached Irvine homes that sold was 197. And, according to DQNews, the August median sales price in Irvine was $591,000, down 16.64% from the August 2007 price of $709,000.
And, finally, Refin’s median numbers for all Irvine homes sold in last 90 days are $570K and $376 per square foot. The number of Irvine homes (condo and detached) currently on the market is currently 908.
For a review of the January 2008 to July 2008 Irvine housing numbers, see “The Irvine Market Report: Detached Homes Stats, July 2008” and “Reality Check: Irvine Market Detached+Condo Housing Stats, July 2008.”
September 27, 2008
Note: The stats for detached homes provide a good overview of market trends in each city. However, condos also play a significant role in the Orange County housing market, so taking a look at these numbers is also helpful. That is what we will do with the following housing numbers.
The following numbers are from Redfin’s Costa Mesa “Overview of Homes for Sale” webpage. This page includes the Costa Mesa inventory and pricing numbers as well as the associated charts and graphs. So if you would like to see the charts and graphs, click on the link for the above mentioned overview page.
Following are the Irvine condo housing numbers for 2008:
For some months now, with some slight variations, the overall numbers for housing in Irvine tell of a market that is in a holding pattern. With the overall-median-sold-price slightly lower than last month and median-sold-price-per-square-foot slightly higher than last month, this month’s numbers for condos in Irvine tell the same holding-pattern story.
Tomorrow we’ll take a look at the numbers for the detached homes in Irvine. Preview: Is a change in store for the Irvine housing market?
- Median List Price:
- September 17, 2008: $500K
- August 29, 2008: $510K
- Median Sold Price for*:
- September 17, 2008: $480K
- August 29, 2008*: $487K
- Median List Price/SF:
- September 17, 2008: $370
- August 29, 2008: $372
- Median Sold Price/SF*:
- September 17, 2008: $349
- August 21, 2008: $345
- Median Days on Redfin*:
- September 17, 2008 : 79
- August 29, 2008: 80
- Total Number of Homes on the Market:
- September 17, 2008: 488 (15 are bank- and MLS-listed foreclosures; 8 are for-sale-by-owner)
- August 29, 2008: 505 (13 are bank- and MLS-listed foreclosures; 10 are for-sale-by-owner)
- % Homes with Price Reductions/Median Number of Reductions/Median Total % Reduction*:
- September 17, 2008: 41.2%/2/7.0%
- August 29, 2008: 43.1%/2/7.7%
*Based on homes sold or taken off market in the last 90 days. These include MSL-listed, for-sale-by-owner, and bank-foreclosure homes.
For more information on the September Irvine housing numbers, see tomorrow’s post “The Irvine Market Report: Detached Home Stats, September 2008.”
For a review of the January 2008 to July 2008 Irvine housing numbers, see “The Irvine Market Report: Detached Homes Stats, July 2008” and “Reality Check: Irvine Market : Detached & Condo Homes Stats, July 2008.”
September 27, 2008
Ready for some free fun?! In this economy, who’s not, right? Well, get ready for a parade, carnival rides, food, crafts, and other entertainment at the Tustin Tiller Days. This annual event that dates back to 1957 is an opportunity for Tustin residents to celebrate Orange County’s agricultural heritage. Aside from just being good old fun, Tustin Tiller Days is also a fundraiser for several local non-profit groups. On Saturday at 10am, there will be a parade that winds through Old Town.
Here’s what you need to know if you’re gonna go:
WHEN:
Friday, October 3rd: 4:00 PM – 11:00 PM
Saturday, October 4th: 10:00 AM – 11:00 PM
Sunday, October 5th: 11:00 AM – 8:00 PM
WHERE:
Columbus Park, 17522 Beneta Way, Tustin, CA 92780
COST:
Free Admission.
And since you’re in the area, here are some homes for sale just down the street from Tiller Days. Just think, if you lived in one of these places, you could just cruise down to these type of events.
17671 Norwood Park Pl, Tustin 92780; 4 bed/3 bath house; 2,950 sq ft; $799,999
17791 Bigelow Park, Tustin 92780; 4 bed/2 bath house; 2,580 sq ft; $725,000
221 Prospect Park, Tustin 92780; 2 bed/2 bath condo/detached house; 1,345 sq ft; $379,500
September 26, 2008
Foreclosureradar.com released the stats/info for the month of August and the state of foreclosures. Let’s just say there was very little surprising information. What did they find?
- Notices of Default increased by 4.8 percent, to a total of 42,790 filings – almost perfectly offsetting the prior month’s 4.6 percent decrease.
- Properties taken to sale at auction decreased by 8.6 percent, to 26,309 properties, with a combined loan balance of $11 Billion.
Other notable information
The number of properties currently scheduled for sale has doubled to 70,000 since January. Of these scheduled sales, 61 percent are being postponed at the banks discretion (lenders may postpone the foreclosure auction up to one year in California). Beyond delaying the sale of properties in the foreclosure process, a recent report from the Mortgage Bankers Association also seems to indicate that lenders are delaying foreclosure altogether. They reported that while 6.41 percent of all loans were delinquent, just 2.75 percent were in foreclosure.
I think this information only indicates just how bad the state of the banks and financial markets are. No bank wants to default on a loan (let me not even start on the tangent of what were they thinking when they gave the loan!) or have a foreclosure, it’s just a hit to their bottom line. Since they didn’t use enough foresight to begin with they are now paying the price. If they can’t even keep up with the paperwork and are pushing off the foreclosures then it’s a sure sign of the times if things are getting shuffled around to delay or defer the process.
September 26, 2008
In a recent post, I wrote about staycations by the pool that some are now taking. If you want to take your own staycation by the pool, here are some homes in Irvine in various price ranges that would allow you to do that.
In Orangetree, one of Irvine’s more affordable neighborhoods (by overall price, not necessarily by square footage price)…
Asking Price: $248,000 ($310 per square foot)
Where: 249 Orange Blossom 92618
What:1976 condo, 2 bed/1 bath, 800 SF
Notes: Homes is this area are mostly condos; association pool and spa; Dues: $191/month or $9/month.
In Woodbridge, positioned around two lakes and one of Irvine’s more established neighborhoods …
Asking Price: $639,000 ($407 per square foot)
Where: 35 Sweet Rain 92614
What: 1980 detached, 3 beds/3 baths, 1571 SF
Notes: Ad states: “Large fenced in backyard with grass and patio.” Woodbridge Village Association pool and spa; Dues: $73/month or $48 per month
In the Irvine Business Complex (IBC) (called the airport area on many real estate maps), Irvine’s mixed-use and evolving live-work-play neighborhood, which currently includes free shuttle service in the form of the ishuttle …
Asking Price: $1,349,000 ($754 per square foot)
Where: 8060 Scholarship, Tower One at The Plaza in the IBC 92612
What: 2007 condo, 2 beds/3 baths, 1790 SF
Notes: The ad waxed poetic with the following statement: “The soothing Pool Views & cadence of the flowing palm trees and majestic sunsets will captivate the most discriminating buyer.” All that for monthly dues of only $1,123! Although this is a high-end home, homes at various price levels exist in the IBC.
If you are interested in the IBC area but this home is not your price range, click on the IBC link found above to see what else is available. Likewise, click on the Orangetree and Woodbridge links provided above to see what else is available in those areas.
September 25, 2008
The tale of two brooks, but they both tell one amazing story. Each house on the “brook” streets not only sold, but sold for a profit and not much less than asking. Both brook homes were good size (4+ bedrooms and 2,300+ sq ft) and in nice neighborhoods… major pluses. Both seemed to be well maintained, have attractive floorplans, and were built in the mid-to-late 1960s. Shadybrook was the typical success story of the rare success stories in this market. The owners bought nearly 10 years ago and hung on to their property (the buy and hold strategy). The result? A nice 96% return on their investment. Saybrook, on the other hand, looks to have a little more of a tumultuous past. However, the success story here seems to be on the side of the bank, who sold the home for more than the foreclosed mortgage (23% more).
14311 Shadybrook Dr, Tustin 92780
5 bed/2 bath house; 2,329 sq ft; built in 1968
Listing/Price History:
Listed for $649,900
Reduced to $599,000 on Mar 3, 2008
Taken off the market
Put back on the market for $599,000 on May 6, 2008
Sold for $559,000 on Sep 3, 2008 (7% below asking)
Last sale on Sep 17, 1999 for $285,000. 96% return on investment.
1731 Saybrook Ln, Tustin 92780
4 bed/3 bath house; 2,434 sq ft; built in 1965
Listing/Price History:
Listed for $587,000 on Aug 2, 2008
Sold for $587,000 on Sep 5, 2008
Likely REO. Last sale Jun 19, 2008 for $478,000. Sale prior for $575,000 on Jun 13, 2003.
September 25, 2008
That’s the opinion of Bob Simpson, who runs an Irvine company called IMARC that investigates mortgages for mortgage insurers. In an interview with the Orange County Register, he says that home prices need to come more in line with O.C. household incomes.
[W]hat’s the median income in Orange County? I’d say multiply that by three or four and that’s the median home price. That’s about $300,000. Right now, anyone who bought their home since 2003 has lost money. … I’ve been on record that the median is going to return to 1999 or 2000 or worse. That’s about $300,000….Who exactly can pay $700,000 for a home? You should make $250,000 or $275,000 to carry that debt load.
He also confirms that mortgage fraud contributed to the runup in prices.
I think that the majority of stated-income loans are fraud. There’s a report by the Mortgage Asset Research Institute on fraud, which said 60 percent of stated-income borrowers inflated their income by more than 50 percent. So that means someone who makes $5,000 says they make $7,500 a month. That means there are people with $5,000-a-month incomes with $2,500-a-month payments. There’s no way they can pay that much.
Meanwhile, UCLA issued a dim economic forecast for Southern California, saying that the housing slump was largely responsible.
Edward Leamer, also an author of the report, said the housing turmoil did so much damage in large part because the economy is too dependent on consumer spending.
“The low rates of interest, the innovations in the financial markets and the tax cuts have turned us into a consumption-loving, debt-ridden, foreign-depending society,” he wrote in the forecast.
As homeowners lost equity in their homes — or lost them altogether — they were no longer able to borrow against the properties to pay for remodeling jobs, vacations, college tuition or other expenses.
I’m sure there are plenty of people who would love to believe Mr. Simpson, because there are plenty of people with decent jobs who still can’t afford an Orange County house. It’s not such good news for homeowners, however, unless they’re the buy-and-hold types who bought 10 or more years ago and are paying down their mortgages.
Recent Redfin posts:
The Costa Mesa Market Report: Condo Housing Stats, September 2008
Santa Ana: Fraud, Fraud, Fraud
Bail Out, Bail Out, Bail Out
