About a month ago we started seeing some gains in the market. Houses were moving and the prices of homes seemed to be stabilizing. Thus began the bottom talk. “We’ve hit bottom!” many analysts cried. But I, no, I denied.
This month we’re seeing gains in the movement of the market. John Lansner’s reporting on rebound buying. He notes,
O.C. homebuyers gobbled up 2,731 residences in August, 19% above year-ago levels. That’s the second straight month that the local buying pace exceeded the year-ago tally. This boost is a noteworthy switch, considering it follows a 33-month streak of slumping sales. We wonder what to make of this shift in momentum.
I found this striking since this morning I was speaking to a Realtor/property manager I happen to know who obviously makes his living all things real estate (flipping, selling & renting). He swears this is the bottom and it’s a great time to buy. I keep hearing echoes of the same thing from others around me.
It seems Lansner’s readers don’t agree with such talk. He posted a poll on this page and most voted for, “It’s just a blip,” when asked what they thought of these recent gains in the market.
I have to agree – a blip indeed. I still stand by my conviction that we’ll see another flurry of foreclosures and short sales unless something intervenes because more and more people are going to see higher mortgage rates and arms and short -term interest rates expire in the near future.
Many are calling on us to look at the stock market and explaining if that’s in that bad of shape the real estate market must be terrible. While I don’t think there’s a direct correlation between those two I do think it’s showing us something we all need to remember. We have a very sick housing market and it’s not going to be recovering our rebounding fully in a weak economic state. With the exception of a few sectors, pretty much all industries/sectors are taking a hit.
To expect a strong change in direction of the housing market when other economic areas are weak and barely sustainable is like hoping a goldfish can live in murky water. There’s nothing sustainable to encourage a liveable environment, Americans are too strapped for cash to do much buying/investing, and everyone’s just waiting to see what the government is going to as far as new regulations, safeties and instituting more checks and balances into the system.
I guess all we can do is wait and see. But I don’t think we’ll be seeing huge surges in the local real estate market anytime soon.
Starting in the mid-1980s, people from Los Angeles and Orange counties began moving inland in search of cheaper homes. Moreno Valley was a city that sprang up out of nowhere to take advantage of this trend. Unfortunately, the city soon became a poster child for everything bad about growth: poorly constructed homes on tiny lots; haphazard zoning; no infrastructure or services to support the new population; horrendous commutes that strained health and family life.
When the 1990s housing downturn happened, Moreno Valley was one of the hardest-hit. Thousands of homes went into foreclosure, and countless Moreno Valley neighborhoods spiraled downhill. However, just like now, there grew opportunities to buy even cheaper homes, and so people came back. A story in Monday’s Los Angeles Times features a man named Bob Chiordi, who has been there since the beginning.
A 54-year-old father of two, Chiordi moved here in the ’80s, part of a modern-day land rush that for a time would make Moreno Valley the nation’s fastest-growing city.
It was a classic suburban trade-off: Chiordi was willing to endure a death-march commute into Long Beach, where he worked as a structural mechanic for McDonnell Douglas, in exchange for an opportunity to own his own house. The American Dream, it’s often called — when it all works out.
Chiordi now toils in the auto service department at Wal-Mart for $10.25 an hour, while scouring the Southland for a job more in line with his background. Moreover, for the second time since moving here, he is about to walk away from his home to foreclosure — unable to keep up with the payments.
Chiordi rode the boom into his first house, lost it, struggled to come back, bought another house, and lost that one too. It’s a roller-coaster story of hope and optimism and trying to get ahead — one that many others who got caught up in the current housing drams could probably tell.
Despite its rocky start, Moreno Valley got a second wind. In 1992, it got its very own mall, and even though the mall struggled at first, things began to look up.
In time Moreno Valley would add 50,000more residents [it has about 180,000 now] and many, many jobs. The city dedicated new parks and other amenities, financed in part through a utility tax passed amid the panic of the first bust. By 2002 the Riverside Press-Enterprise was editorializing about the “Moreno Valley Comeback.”
Chiordi rode this tide up. He sold his business, went to work as a branch manager at an auto dealership, bought a new house and, as real estate values soared, refinanced it twice, taking out money to pay down old debts and for a family vacation. He had purchased the house for $160,000. It was now worth $420,000, at least on paper.
So optimistic was Chiordi that he quit his job to start his own business. The economy turned. He couldn’t find a job that paid as well as his dealership job. So now he’s losing his house. The story notes that there were nearly 1,200 foreclosures in Moreno Valley in the second quarter of this year, compared to 101 for Pasadena and Monrovia combined.
But, ever the optimist, Chiordi’s going to try it again.
With financial help from his extended family, Chiordi will be moving this month with his wife, two grown children and two grandchildren into a house they’ve bought on a hill in the eastern corner of town. It’s a tidy beige structure, built only four years ago, with a terra cotta roof and a backyard view of Moreno Valley spread out below. It had fallen into foreclosure last April, and the price was right.
I lived in Moreno Valley from 1993 to 1999, in a new house purchased at a developer’s foreclosure auction. Moreno Valley is a lot like Bob Chiordi: It often disappoints, but it keeps trying. There are some nicer neighborhoods, mostly north of the 60 freeway; and there are some awful ones. It may change as it matures, but it may never shed the scars of its unhappy childhood. When a city’s No. 1 attribute is its cheap housing, that’s a bad sign.
In the Saddleback Valley News last week, there was an advice column called “Ask a Realtor.” The realtor was Jim Flynn; the question was “Should I add on or buy a bigger home?” Forgive me, but I can’t find an electronic version of the publication, so here goes my quick summary from Fynn’s response:
Ask what Flynn calls the “Big Six” questions to help make a decision:
How much money do you actually have available in your current home (i.e. equity and current saleable price)?
How much more space do you really need/want?
Is your lot big enough to expand?
If you can’t expand out, can you expand up (foundation support second floor)?
Any issues with local zoning/building ordinances?
Are there affordable properties currently on the market that fit your needs?
While I tip my hat to Flynn for breaking down a very difficult question into an easy approach that is simple and logical, there are a couple things that I would add. And they are…
If you found a house that you want to buy that meets your needs, can you sell your house for what you want? Will you have enough for a down payment and qualify for a loan?
If you remodeled, would you be making your house “the best” on the block? You don’t want to be the most expensive house in your neighborhood… brings down your overall property price and makes resale more difficult; and you probably won’t get as good a return on your dollars spent as if you were fixing up your home to meet neighborhood standards of a desirable neighborhood.
Are there any benefits to moving/staying put besides what the house has to offer (commuting distance to work, kids happy in school, close to shopping/entertainment centers or parks, etc.)?
So, if you live in Tustin, should you remodel or buy another home? I can’t answer any of the questions about your current home, but here are some good deals that I would guess would be a move up for most growing families. They’ve all had recent price reductions and are prime for the picking.
1391 Bryan, Tustin 92705; 4 bed/3 bath; 2,259 sq ft house; 3,053 sq ft lot; listed at $605,000 (down from $634,000)
An OC Regsiter article in Sunday’s paper (“Looking forward on foreclosures“) by Julie Anne Ines discusses the proposed policy in Fountain Valley where the City would buy bank-owned homes and then sell them as affordable housing. While Fountain Valley is the first OC city to put any action behind this notion, they’re likely not to be the last. Cities buying bank-owned properties and converting them to affordable housing is supported by legislation signed by President Bush in July, which not only allows the cities to participate but provides federal funds.
According to Ines, Fountain Valley only had 32 foreclosures in the second quarter of ’08, as compared to 171 foreclosures in Santa Ana for the same period. The allocation of the federal funds is to be made based on the need within the cities. Given what we all know about foreclosure-mania Santa Ana, that means, according to Ines, that Santa Ana could see some funding in as little as two months. Could Fountain Valley be leading Santa Ana into affordable housing bliss, or maybe just another foreclosure-saturated abyss?
So, what might the City of Santa Ana have to choose from when they’re looking to buy bank-owned properties. Currently, there 159 bank-owned properties listed in Santa Ana (98 houses and 61 condos). Here’s a sampling of what could soon be affordable housing. . .
In a recent post, I identified which neighborhoods (or villages as they are called in Irvine) are in Irvine’s University district. I also provided links to the pricing and inventory statistics for these Irvine villages. But the stats are only part of the story. Neighborhood characteristics are also important. With that in mind, following are some links that provide descriptions of villages in Irvine’s University district. Special thanks goes to the Irvine Housing Blog.
Now here’s a topic I’ve wanted to address since the inception of this blog. But alas, I’ve always bit my virtual tongue, or tied my fingers if you will. But a recent article in the OC Register has me wondering, will the Crown Valley Road construction ever really be done?
When we were house hunting in the South OC in summer of 2006 we saw the construction and figured it was a quick pick job. Let’s just say I’m so glad we chose not to move anywhere near that mess. Despite not living right off of Crown Valley, I’ve spent far too many evenings cruising at the whopping 2 miles an hour to span the 1.5 mile stretch from the 5 to Marguerite in a hurried 20-30 minutes.
And from what I’ve read everyone can blame it on someone else. The city says it’s SDG&E’s fault, they utilities blame the city and they blame the construction crews. This article squarely blames SDG&E who seems to live up to some of the fault.
But in all seriousness, this project was obviously poorly managed. In a former city we lived in we watched the complete overhaul of the freeway. We’re talking removal and rebuilding of a major bridge, redesign and reconstruction of all exits and entrances, expansion of the lanes, repaving and better merge planning for a good 15 mile stretch of freeway (it was actually probably more but you get the idea). This took the good part of 4 years- slightly less actually. And yet in what will amount to just a few months shy of the same time we may (holding my breath), just may see an additional 2 lanes on Crown Valley Road.
According to the OC Reigster this project is set to complete now in March of 2009. When all is said and done this project took nearly 3 years to complete a lane widening project. The Register reports, “Chagnon [city project manager] said he expects under the current construction schedule all four travel lanes in each direction will be open by early January.
Oh but such a sweet promise comes with a price my friends. You see, in order for this ”accelerated plan” to take place, “two westbound lanes would be closed for four to six weeks during the day as work progresses” the Regiser explains.
January ’09, March ’09….I’m not really holding my breath. Until then I continue to tell anyone considering living somewhere that requires travel on Crown Valley to think twice about their plans or plan to wait twice as long each time they take the route.
Crossroads is one of the three districts into which the Irvine police department has divided the City for its geopolicing program(the three districts are Crossroads, University and Portola). Roughly speaking, the Crossroads district is in the center west portion of the City of Irvine.
The Crossroads district contains the following Irvine neighborhoods or, as they are called in Irvine, villages:
To see pricing and inventory information for these villages in Irvine’s Crossroads district, click on the links provided above. This will bring you to Redfin’s Community Overview Page for that village (if you prefer, you can also enter zip codes or city names in the Search box at the top, left of each page).
In addition to pricing and inventory information, the Community Overview Page provides the most recent listings, open houses, recently sold, most expensive, least expense, and price reduction information as well as community and school information for these villages.
To see what homes are available in each village, type the village name (for example, Woodbridge or Walnut) in the Search Listing box at the top, left of the page. This will bring you to a Redfin map that is populated with homes that are currently available in that area.
Note: Following real estate by the neighborhood in Costa Mesa and Irvine is something that I have wanted to do for some time. Redfin’s new inventory and pricing tools that are provided on Redfin’s Community Overview Pages has given me a convenient way to do this. In the future, I’ll be expanding on the Irvine village information that I have provide here, and I’ll be make this an ongoing blog feature.
We all need energy, and so does your home. So we might as well provide it in the most efficient and, in the long run, most cost-effective way.
Here are a few possibilities:
Home Depot offers free clinics that will help you to repair and maintain your home in an energy efficient way. Currently, these clinics are held on Saturdays at 10 am at the various Home Depot locations. In October, Sunday clinics at 1 pm will be offered in addition to the Saturday clinics. A range of topics that will help you conserve energy, such as installing dimmer switches as well as caulking and sealing your windows, is covered. Topics vary store by store, so check with your local Home Depot to see what is available. The Costa Mesa and Irvine stores are at the following locations:
Also, South Coast Air Quality Management District‘s (AQMD) Lawn Mower Exchange Program will start up again in spring 2009. For a relatively small fee, the Lawn Mower Exchange Program allows you to trade an operable gasoline-powered lawn mower for a zero-emission cordless electric lawn mower (the fee was $100 in 2008). The electric mowers reduce VOX, CO and NOx emissions. The number of electric mowers allocated for 2008 has already been given out, so if you would like to get an e-mail notification that tells you when spring 2009 registration will be available, click here.
Well it’s set to be another absolute impeccable weekend here in So Cal. The wind’s got that crisp fall edge, but the sun continues to shine. Looking for something to do? In the market for a home or just looking to browse?
27133 Via Aurora
4 beds / 2 baths / 1,420 Sq Ft
Listed For: $539,900
Open Sunday 1-4
21236 Limber 3 beds / 3 baths / 1,752 Sq Ft
Listed For: $659,500
Open Sun 1-5
23235 Alpine
4 beds / 3 baths / 3,656 Sq Ft
Listed For: $824,700
Open Sun 1-4
26832 Magdalena Ln
3 beds / 2 baths / 1,812 Sq Ft
Listed For: $575,000
Open Fri 11-5
OC Register’s Elysse James covered the parking problem story in Tustin this week. According to her article (“Tustin council considering permit program for parking on streets“), there will be a public workshop hosted by the Tustin City Council on Monday to take a look at solutions to the problem with too many cars being parked on the streets overnight.
According to complainants, the problem stems from people not parking their vehicles in their garages and using them for living spaces or businesses instead… that and overpopulated areas with apartment complexes. The main area for this “offense” is Red Hill Avenue and Sycamore. Among the proposed solutions are “restrict parking between 2 and 6 a.m.” and “requiring permits to park during those hours.”
Some Tustin streets already have these restrictions: “About 17 city streets, including Cindy and Letty Lanes and part of Main Street, already have permit programs in place. Residents of those streets petitioned the city for the permits.”
I’m not exactly clear what the parking bans would entail (guess I should go to the meeting). It sounds a tad bit harsh, in my opinion. If you have an overnight guest staying with you, can they not park outside your house? If you have three cars (or more if you happen to have a few teenagers with jobs in the house), can you not park one on the street? Sounds like a parking ban that belongs in downtown of a big city, not Tustin.
An OC Regsiter article in Sunday’s paper (“
In a recent post
Now here’s a topic I’ve wanted to address since the inception of this blog. But alas, I’ve always bit my virtual tongue, or tied my fingers if you will. But a recent article in the 
OC Register’s Elysse James covered the parking problem story in Tustin this week. According to her article (“
