Archive for March, 2009
March 31, 2009
Let’s check in on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). Here’s a summary of the latest data for the Los Angeles area, which includes LA and Orange Counties:
January 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.9%
Year to Year: Down 25.8%
Change from Peak: Down 39.2% in 28 months
Since Case-Shiller lumps LA and Orange Counties together, I won’t repeat everything I wrote on the LA Sweet Digs blog. For more analysis and some graphs of the LA Case-Shiller data, check out my post over there: Case-Shiller: Rate of LA Home Price Drops Continues to Slow.
March 25, 2009
Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.
The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.
For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.
First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:
Of the 40 cities/towns we ranked in Orange County this month, 21 (53%) had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. Much of the top ten was the same as last month, with the familiar names Rossmoor, Coto de Caza, and San Clemente coming in the top three positions.
Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten Orange County neighborhoods for price reductions:
Of the 42 neighborhoods we ranked in Orange County this month, 16 (38%) had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. The Highlands shot from #3 last month (with 63% reduced) to #1 this month with a whopping 74% reduced. Various Huntington Beach neighborhoods also made repeat appearances in the top ten. These are the neighborhoods where you might want to look for sellers that are more anxious to sell.
We’re still seeing a degree of consistency in which neighborhoods and cities have the most price reductions. Are sellers in these locations just not very good at finding the right market price in the first place, or are they so anxious to sell that they drop the price early and often? Either way, the regions with the really high percentage of reduced-price homes are probably a good place to go bargain-hunting.
March 24, 2009
Let’s have an update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discount off the asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in Orange County and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.
Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:
The overall discount for Orange County came in the same as last month at 3.5%. Last month’s most discounted zip code 92637 slipped a few places to #5 on the list, with 92663—a newcomer to the top 10—jumping into #1 this month.
Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:
Of the 3,392 sales we tracked in the 2-month period, 51 homes sold for more than 20% off the asking price, while 882 homes sold for more than asking.
As a whole, discounts in Orange County seem to be holding steady. As we continue to watch this data we will be able to get a better picture of what sale-to-list discounts tell us about the overall health of the local real estate market. Once we get enough data points, we’ll be able to plot the overall discount trend on a line chart for an interesting picture of the market.
March 18, 2009
We’ve been doing some research on Orange County real estate blogs and thought I’d compile a list of our favorites.
Top Real Estate Blogs
Good Local/Neighborhood Blogs
What have we missed? What blogs do you all follow to stay on top of the Orange County real estate market?
