Archive for the ‘Laguna Hills, Mission Viejo’ Category
September 14, 2008
Now here’s a topic I’ve wanted to address since the inception of this blog. But alas, I’ve always bit my virtual tongue, or tied my fingers if you will. But a recent article in the OC Register has me wondering, will the Crown Valley Road construction ever really be done?
When we were house hunting in the South OC in summer of 2006 we saw the construction and figured it was a quick pick job. Let’s just say I’m so glad we chose not to move anywhere near that mess. Despite not living right off of Crown Valley, I’ve spent far too many evenings cruising at the whopping 2 miles an hour to span the 1.5 mile stretch from the 5 to Marguerite in a hurried 20-30 minutes.
And from what I’ve read everyone can blame it on someone else. The city says it’s SDG&E’s fault, they utilities blame the city and they blame the construction crews. This article squarely blames SDG&E who seems to live up to some of the fault.
But in all seriousness, this project was obviously poorly managed. In a former city we lived in we watched the complete overhaul of the freeway. We’re talking removal and rebuilding of a major bridge, redesign and reconstruction of all exits and entrances, expansion of the lanes, repaving and better merge planning for a good 15 mile stretch of freeway (it was actually probably more but you get the idea). This took the good part of 4 years- slightly less actually. And yet in what will amount to just a few months shy of the same time we may (holding my breath), just may see an additional 2 lanes on Crown Valley Road.
According to the OC Reigster this project is set to complete now in March of 2009. When all is said and done this project took nearly 3 years to complete a lane widening project. The Register reports, “Chagnon [city project manager] said he expects under the current construction schedule all four travel lanes in each direction will be open by early January.
Oh but such a sweet promise comes with a price my friends. You see, in order for this ”accelerated plan” to take place, “two westbound lanes would be closed for four to six weeks during the day as work progresses” the Regiser explains.
January ’09, March ‘09….I’m not really holding my breath. Until then I continue to tell anyone considering living somewhere that requires travel on Crown Valley to think twice about their plans or plan to wait twice as long each time they take the route.
September 12, 2008
Well it’s set to be another absolute impeccable weekend here in So Cal. The wind’s got that crisp fall edge, but the sun continues to shine. Looking for something to do? In the market for a home or just looking to browse?
27133 Via Aurora
4 beds / 2 baths / 1,420 Sq Ft
Listed For: $539,900
Open Sunday 1-4
21236 Limber
3 beds / 3 baths / 1,752 Sq Ft
Listed For: $659,500
Open Sun 1-5
23235 Alpine
4 beds / 3 baths / 3,656 Sq Ft
Listed For: $824,700
Open Sun 1-4
26832 Magdalena Ln
3 beds / 2 baths / 1,812 Sq Ft
Listed For: $575,000
Open Fri 11-5
September 10, 2008
Right off of LaPaz and McIntyre sits the Missions neighborhood. It’s just half a mile away from the 5. If you have young kids this is your place since it’s right near shopping, parks and schools are all within walking distance. Just like everyone else values have been falling. Below are some samples of what’s on the market, and what homes in this neighborhood were once selling for.
On the Market
25202 Champlain Rd
3 beds / 2 baths / 1,483 Sq Ft
Listed For: $550,000
25222 Pike Rd
4 beds / 2 baths / 2,066 Sq Ft
Listed For: $494,900
25291 Orellano Way
3 beds / 2 baths / 1,774 Sq Ft
Listed For: $599,900
25512 Grissom Rd
4 beds / 2 baths / 1,735 Sq Ft
Listed For: $480,000
Sold
25231 Mackenzie St
4 beds / 2 baths / 1,574 Sq Ft
Sold For: $744,000 (11.7.06)
25241 Orellano Way
4 beds / 2.5 baths / 2,490 Sq Ft
Sold For: $600,000 (12.13.06)
25711 Califia Dr
3 beds / 2 baths / 1,325 Sq Ft
Sold For: $450,000 (3.27.08)
25481 Charlemagne
3 beds / 2 baths / 1,483 Sq Ft
Sold For: $673,000 (8.8.08)
September 8, 2008
Photo Courtesy of LA Times
Turn on the news or the radio and you’ll be blasted with the news – the federal government has bailed out our friends (foes?) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. There’s no sense in me spending time discussing the events as they have been heavily covered by all media outlets.
No, today I want to look at what people are saying about what this means. So without further aideu, what’s the fallout from such a maneuver.
According to the LA Times: It “Doesn’t Change Anything”. Peter Viles implies that this just rescues these two groups and leaves many banks vulnerable as we wait to see who fails next.
Redstate.com reports:
early indications from overseas markets show that the move will be received very favorably. In fact, it could change the landscape in the financial markets. It’s far too early to say this out loud, so I’ll just whisper it very softly: there’s a possibility that we’re at the beginning of the end of the long credit crisis.
Bloomberg predicts lowered mortgage rates will probably result and that, “The federal bailout of the mortgage giants may temper the slide in home prices.”
The Telegraph in the UK notes how the US looks to be far more socialist with the revelation of the interrelationship between the state and financial institutions.
It seems everyone has a different take on the fallout or lack thereof to everyman/woman. Of course, the dollar rose, foreign markets and the US market saw gains so at least if our homes aren’t going to give us much value you might have made some gains on stock investments and on every dollar sitting in your account. But as far as tangible effects, we don’t see huge ones yet.
September 6, 2008
It seems the market’s starting to settle a bit from the spring/summer “rush”. Well, if by rush you mean a slight nudge. Usually we see a significant increase in market activity during the summer months. I’d say this year it was like taking a soccer ball and kicking it through 3 inches of mud. The sucker just slips forward very quietly about an inch and stops.
In fact, the inventory is definitely smaller. For the first time I searched all active listings in Laguna Hills and they all fit onto the map at one time (note map above). In fact there are only about 289 homes & condos on the market in Laguna Hills right now. Sure it’s down from last month but we’re not quite back to April inventory yet either. My guess it inventory will stay a little higher because homes weren’t getting snagged up quickly as often seen in the summer peak. On average it’s taking about 91 days to sell your property in Laguna Hills.
So what’s going on? Here are a few recent price reductions.
22445 Caminito Grande
3 beds /2 baths /1,200 Sq Ft
Previously Listed: $399,000
Currently Listed: $359,900
% Reduction: 10%
24632 Creekview Dr
4 beds / 3 baths / 2,808 Sq Ft
Previously Listed: $629,000
Currently Listed: $599,000
% Reduction: 5%
23246 Caminito Marcial #94
3 beds / 2 baths / 1,557 Sq Ft
Previously Listed: $299,000
Currently Listed: $287,000
% Reduction: 4%
September 4, 2008
Just yesterday the LA Times reported on the Credit Suisse report that the price declines in the real estate market will continue until the end of ‘09 or early ‘10.
They noted:
The report, using two separate methods of predicting home price trends, says both methods “point to home prices moving back in line with past historical ‘equilibrium’ levels in 12 to 18 months...” The report notes that housing prices could “overshoot” their equilibrium levels, and fall for even longer than 12 to 18 months, in which case, “‘cheap’ housing is still about two years away.”
Whether you think the bottom hit last week or that we still have about 3 years before things bottom out, the numbers are still make just about anyone who bought past 2003 cringe. Just where are prices these days? According to the Redfin neighborhood page you can see the following trends.
Single Family Homes
Condos
As you can see it’s a slippery slope down. But what’s the difference in what these sellers are asking for vs. what they are receiving at closing. As far as single family homes, they are receiving about 14% less than what they were asking. As far as condos, they are receiving about 13% less than the asking price. Have we hit bottom, I don’t think so. As far as 2012, that seems a little longer than I think as well. Only time will tell though!
September 3, 2008
We all know that traffic is a part of living in southern California. But it seems as of late, living in Mission Viejo and/or Laguna Hills has had a continued frustration as the 5 continues to back up near Oso just about any time of day. Morning, noon or night, a not-so-quick, easy to frustrate backup builds.
The OC Register reports that the Transit Officials have taken note and are ready to push plans to remedy the situation forward or “fast track” them to see progress sooner.
The numbers of cars that trek through the area are staggering. The Register noted:
Traffic on the I-5 near the El Toro “Y” now reaches nearly 350,000 vehicles a day and is expected to jump to 460,000 vehicles a day.
The El Toro intersection is well-organized and handles the flow fairly well (or as well as it can handling over a quarter million cars a day). But the bigger problem seems to the the Oso exit and it’s twisty, curvy, topsy, turvy exit and entrance ramps.
As far as the plans and their details:
The construction plans – funded by a $24 million Caltrans grant in June – include adding a southbound auxiliary lane in advance of the southbound off-ramp at Oso, widening the southbound off-ramp to Oso from one to two lanes and widening the ramp lanes from three to four lanes. Construction will start in September and conclude by fall 2011, officials said.
Here is a map courtesy of the OC Register noting where the changes will be made.
So with such expedited plans expect to see a little congestion and the frustration to mount for the next, well, 2 years I suppose. The good news is that there will be one less “hot spot” for traffic to complain about.
August 28, 2008
Every once in a while (okay more than once in a while) I read something that really just leaves me scratching my head. And this time it was Kiplinger’s July Newsletter for California. Known for their analysis and market predictions I was really surprised by this newsletter.
After prediciting November elections and the key sway issues they really baffled me with their real estate forecast.
Don’t be misled by the steep decline in California median home prices…40% from July 2007 to July 2008, for example. Chances are goodthat your house hasn’t fallen that much in value during the same time period.
Huh? Now if this were addressed to say, residents of Newport Beach, Laguna or another coastal area that has remained minimally affected (but still affected nonetheless) by this declining market I could see that response, but this was shocking to me. Right now we’re seeing lots of homes selling at prices they sold in 2003/2004 (some even 2002).
The figures are distorted by the huge number of foreclosed houses that are sold by lenders at big discounts to get them off their books. Also by short sales…a troubled borrower making a deal with a lender to get out of an expensive mortgage by selling it at the best price possible.
Right here they were right on – this is a HUGE portion of what’s driving down home prices as far as they are going. However, I don’t think this is really distorting the numbers. The numbers aren’t distorted. Ask seller John Doe who’s trying to sell his house on ABC Street in Anytown in the South OC who’s competing with 3 foreclosures in his neighborhood.
Otherwise, the drop in home values is closer to 10%. It’s bigger than that in severely troubled areas, such as the Central Valley and the Inland Empire. But it’s smaller in strongholds such as Los Angeles and the S.F. Bay Area, where few subprime loans were made and there aren’t many foreclosures.
Looking at some of the posts by our San Fran bloggers, it seems that prices up there have even rolled back to 2004 prices in some areas. Check out some of the evidence of that here. I don’t think 10% is even close to where values are from when prices peaked. Most homeowners who live in South OC and bought between ‘05 and ‘06 know this and so does our government. They agree so much that home values fell that they reassessed taxes for all those homeowners for far more than a 10% loss – many saw it closer to 25% in Laguna Hills and Mission Viejo.
A side benefit of declining home prices is increased affordability. The percentage of households that have the means to buy an entry-level home has doubled from 24% to 48% during the past year, spurring home sales. You’ll see some slight upticks in median prices early next year, when the inventory of foreclosures and short sales is whittled down.
Honestly I haven’t researched new homebuying enough to understand if this is true or not so I won’t even try to comment on that issue. However, I do have some concerns that the windfall of foreclosures and short sales will not dwindle in the next year as many of the arms that those who did not 100% finance have. Many are set to expire in 2009 & 2010 and we might see another influx of such properties injected into the market.
But the housing market won’t get back to equilibrium until late 2009. That’s when homes will sell more quickly and prices will rise across the board.
And a lot of analysts agree here. But, like my previous comment worries me that we might reach equilibrium to only have it disrupted again by a new and steady influx of foreclosed properties.
August 25, 2008
“Truths and roses have thorns about them” - Henry David Thoreau
This morning I return back to the working world as summer ends and classes begin at the local college I teach at. My favorite part of the day comes when I explain the attendance policy I have in my class. You can roll your eyes now, my students all do. Of the many reasons I have this policy (namely it’s PUBLIC speaking and if no one comes there is no public to speak to), I explain that it is the civic responsibility of every student to be there.
You see, in California our colleges are heavily subsidized by the state through your tax dollars. And I don’t know about you, but if I’m footing the bill for 19 year-old Johnny B. Goode, he better be hitting the books when the teacher I financed shows up rather than hitting the waves down at Salt Creek.
In the same way, Mission Viejo residents are scrutinizing how some of their hard-earned tax dollars are being spent these days. Last week the City of Mission Viejo announced it’s plans to enter a float in the Rose Bowl Parade. According to the OC Register, about $300,000 have been aside for this project.
The city claims that this is a community building project – for the unity it will provide in having a group of residents to come together and build this float. The mayor claims, “”We believe this is a good community builder. It’s another example of what we try to do in pulling the community together. We have family events we offer all year round, it’s just another example of how Mission Viejo is family and community-oriented.” There are also thoughts that this is a great wide to gain some national attention for the city – kind of an advertisement about Mission Viejo to a national audience.
I don’t know about you but I could think of many other ways to better spend over a quarter of a million dollars. The city could put on a series of concerts for families if they want community building, or organize a community clean up day for the local roadsides and still have tons of money leftover.
Boasting no theme parks, major hotel zones, resorts, and the beach being a good distance away it seems that this probably won’t fall under the “tourism” advertising budget. Is this a good idea for Mission Viejo – particularly when faced with such tough economic times? Let me know!
August 24, 2008
As I wrote last week, the OC Register reported that all but 1 ZIP code in the OC faced over half the homes that sold in the month of July selling for less than the homes were purchased for. And Mission Viejo, unfortunately, was not that 1 ZIP code (coastal Newport Beach was). In fact today I was doing a little research on the homes that went on the market and noticed that same exact trend. Nearly every single home that went on the market in Mission Viejo this weekend had an asking price that was less than what originally paid for.
Below are some of the new listings and their data:
26 Brindisi
4 beds / 3 baths / 1,936 Sq Ft
Listed For: $450,000
Last Sold: 6.15.05 (8.11.05)
22722 Sandalwood
4 beds / 4 baths / 3,443 Sq Ft
Listed For: $999,900
Last Sold: $1,140,000 (1.17.06)
26972 Escondido Ln
3 beds / 3 baths / 2,742 Sq Ft
Listed For: $,1050,000
Last Sold: $1,025,000 (8.9.07)
(I added this since the prices are so close and this seems very overpriced compared to the homes nearby)
22511 Facinas
4 beds / 2.5 baths / 2,166 Sq Ft
Listed For: $570,000
Last Sold: $685,000 (12.8.2004)
What’s shocking about this one is it indicates that prices have fallen back to 2003 prices (actually this one’s closer to 2002).
