Case-Shiller: A Brutal Winter for Home Prices

It’s time (a bit past time, actually) for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Portland/Vancouver area* as of January:

Sixteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between December and January (one less than between November and December): Washington DC joined Phoenix and Miami with an increase. No data was available for Charlotte in January. Oddly, San Francisco had the largest drop at 2.5%.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Portland’s tiers fell in January. Month to month, the low tier was down 2.8%, the middle tier fell 1.1%, and the high tier decreased 2.1%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Another gain here, with the best January showing since 2006, when 11 markets were increasing.

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The Broken Record of Portland’s Supply Shortage

I’m starting to feel like a broken record, but the real estate story in Portland continues to repeat itself… “where’s the beef?”  With March numbers now in, you’ll see below that home sales continue to rise with no improvement in inventory.  In fact, months of supply hit a 12-month low just in time for the spring-summer buying season.  Sweet!

As a result, multiple offers continue to skyrocket.  In the last six months, more than 40% of the contracts Redfin Portland has submitted on behalf of our clients have been met with competition from other offers.  Talking to many Realtors in the area, everyone is experiencing similar pressures.  So how do you compete as a buyer in this dog-eat-dog season?  Here are a few tips that may help you climb to the top of the pile:

Multiple Offer Buying Tips

1. Local Lending – Consider using a lender that is here in the area.  Knowing that the lender is close by, and easy to reach makes them more accountable and service driven.  Local lenders provide a sense of comfort to the seller, and often just as important, the seller’s agent.
2. Show What You’re Good For – Often, buyers are hesitant to show their true borrowing, potentially fearing it will be used against them in negotiations with a seller.  In a multiple-offer scenario, it doesn’t hurt to provide a pre-approval letter showing that you are overqualified for the purchase (as long as you are!), giving the seller more confidence in your ability to secure financing.
3. Seller Friendly Terms – Have your agent contact the listing agent to find out what the seller is looking for.  Of course, price is key, but there is often more involved with an attractive offer.  Consider providing extended rent-back, or closing quickly… whatever would make the seller happy.
4. Sell Yourself – The days of the personal letter are back.  Consider writing a letter to the seller about who you are, what you love about the house, and why your puppy (or kids) will be brokenhearted if you don’t get the house.
5. Be the First to the Water – Sometimes in the end, the offers are so similar that the seller simply goes with the first one they received.  To be competitive in this market, you need to be able to see the property quickly and make the decision quickly as well.  A quick plug for Redfin… registering on our website and setting up a “Saved Search” allows you to receive instant email alerts when a home in your desired area comes on the market.  We’re ready to spring into action to get you into the home as soon as it shows up!

Happy Hunting!  Now here are the March numbers…

Inventory Still Low, Favoring Sellers

Portland buyers were still struggling with low inventory in March, which saw the lowest supply level in the last 12 months. We consider a market with 5-6 months of supply balanced between buyers and sellers, but there were only 3.2 months of supply (the amount of time it would take to sell through all the homes for sale on the market) in March.

A big part of that was that only 2,185 homes were for sale at the end of March, dropping half a percent to the second-lowest in the past 12 months. Meanwhile, the number of sales jumped 8.4% to 677, causing the months of supply to hit its 12-month low.

Two other market indicators also supported the strong seller’s market in Portland. Pending home sales increased 6.3% from February and 11.1% from the previous March, and the number of homes taken off the market without selling was up 2.3% month over month, but down 21.3% year over year.

Condo Prices Make Surprise Jump

The median single-family home price was up for the third straight month, to $234,925. That’s a 2.2% month-over-month increase, and up 7.6% year over year. Condo prices saw a surprise 18.9% month-over-month increase to $220,000, but were still down 3.5% year over year.

February Housing Numbers for Portland: Will Somebody Take My Money?

Well, it’s the same old story… “Will somebody take my money?” Inventory continues to drag along the bottom, while buyers fight to take advantage of low interest rates and put an end to what for many has been months of fruitless searching. In one case, I have been working for a client for more than two years with no luck yet. I spoke with a peer in the industry just yesterday, and she said she has encouraged her clients to “stop looking at the new inventory and start scouring the old stuff for one that slipped through the cracks.” Desperate times… I still believe in fighting for the good inventory whenever it hits the market!

An interesting side story is the impact low inventory is having on the building industry. Nearly half of the transactions Redfin Portland has represented this year have been new construction. There has always been an infill home popping up here and there, but big builders like Renaissance (with their Vintage Series) and Everett Homes (spin-off from one of the owners of Arbor) are now buying up lots all over the city. I spoke with Randy Sebastian (Renaissance Homes) who said they have wait lists in some areas. Folks are biding time until a lot becomes available in their area.

Here’s a more in-depth look at what’s happing around the market:

Inventory hits (another) low:
While some markets around the country saw the inventory slide stop (or at least slow), that’s not happening here in Portland. It’s hitting all types of homes: Single-family homes for sale were down 5.2% since January and 36.6% since February last year. Condos: Down 2.3% month over month and 38.5% year over year. Townhouses have taken the biggest beating of them all: There were 16.4% fewer townhouses on the market than in January and 47.4% fewer than February 2011.

The number of homes sold was also on an upswing, up 16.1% for the month and 19.5% since February 2011.

Where are the Homes in Portland?

The inventory shortage is all over Portland, but it’s hitting some areas harder than others. Below are all the areas and neighborhoods in Portland with 50 or more homes for sale on the last day of February. The year-over-year change is strong evidence of the shortage. Lots of double-digit declines there, but month-0ver-month is more of a mixed bag.

Prices up for the second straight month:

Median sale price for single-family homes in Portland have been a rollercoaster for the last year, but they were positive again in February, up 1.8% for the month and 8.9% for the year. Condos were not so lucky. Median price was up 4.4% for the month, but still down a big 35.8% for the year.

Case-Shiller: Portland’s Middle Tier Took the Biggest Hit in December

It’s time (a bit past time, actually) for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – December data is released in February).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Portland/Vancouver area* as of December:

Eighteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between November and December (one less than between October and November): Only Phoenix (for the third month in a row) and Miami saw an increase. This month Detrioit beat out Chicago and Atlanta for the bottom spot, falling 3.8% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Portland’s tiers fell in December. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.5%, the middle tier fell 1.4%, and the high tier decreased 0.1%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Tiny improvement, better than a year ago, but worse than December 2009, when 5 cities saw an increase.

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Portland Housing Prices Up; Inventory Hits 12-Month Low

By Jeff Bale, Redfin Portland Market Manager

Looking for a three-bedroom, two-bath bungalow in close-in Portland?  Put on your running shoes… they’re goin’ fast.  So are mid-centuries, new construction infill, and most everything else priced right.  With inventory on the decline throughout 2011 and interest rates continuing to remain at historical lows, buyers have been climbing over each other to get a good house.  Does this make is a good time to sell?  You bet.  Low inventory, low interest rates and eager buyers is always a recipe for sellers controlling the market.  A quick word of caution though… you still have to price it right.  Today’s buyers have tons of information at their finger tips and know what homes in the area are selling for.  If the home is overpriced, buyers have proven that they’re willing to sit and watch.  Appraisers are also very cautious, so price the home right.  If you’re holding out for 2007 values again before you sell, get comfortable… it’s gonna be a long wait.  By then interest rates will likely be way up, and so will the number of homes on the market.  Current conditions are just about as good as it gets.

What about buyers?  Values are down nearly 29% since ’07 and the average interest rate is roughly 36% lower.  Whether you can throw down cash for the house or are driven by your monthly payment, this news is all good.  I’ll through in a word of warning for you buyers too… once you find the home you love, be ready to act quickly.  Many homes are selling within 24-48 hours of showing up on market.  Sellers are looking at multiple offers and often getting more than their asking price.  Be ready to make a decision, but work closely with your agent to set a price limit, stay focused on your true home buying needs and try to keep emotion out of the equation.  You still want to pay the right price and just like any relationship, three months after you close the deal, the honeymoon’s over.  Make sure the house is really a great fit, and doesn’t just offer a super cute porch swing.

So here’s the skinny on the numbers…

Inventory Slide Continues

The story in Portland in January was all about buyers having less to choose from. The number of homes for sale in Portland fell 10.3% from December and 37% from January last year, to 2,083.

Given the pace of sales and the number of homes on the market, it would take 3.9 months to sell through the current inventory, a term known in the industry as “months of supply.” In a market balanced between buyers and sellers, we’d expect to see 6-7 months of supply, so this represents a slight advantage for sellers in Portland, but a more balanced market than December’s 12-month low in months of supply.

Sales Drop by 24% in January

We’ve all heard that real estate is seasonal, and one look at the chart of the number of home sales reinforces that. There were 532 sales in Portland, representing a sharp decrease of 23.6% since December 2011, and down 8.4% since January 2011. This is largely due to the fact that not many people are out looking for homes during the holiday season, and so fewer offers were written between Thanksgiving and New Year.  With a typical closing period of 30-45 days, we see the impact in January and early February.

Portland Median Sale Price Up 8.5% for the Month

The median sale price for a single-family home in Portland was $225,750, up 8.5% from December 2011 and up 0.3% year over year from January 2011. The per-square-foot price was also up 6.6% month over month, to $162, but down 2.4% year over year.

Redfin’s housing market data combines public records, local multiple listing services, for-sale-by-owner and other verified sources. The data is validated by Redfin analysts to ensure it is comprehensive and accurate. Redfin publishes these reports each month on or around the 10th of the month, for the previous month. As a tech-focused broker, Redfin is the only company with access to this level of data.

Case-Shiller: Another Winter for Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Portland/Vancouver area* as of November:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between October and November (the same as between September and October): Only Phoenix saw an increase, for the second month in a row. This month Chicago bumped Atlanta out of the bottom spot, falling 3.4% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Portland’s tiers fell in November. Month to month, the low tier was down 1.7%, the middle tier fell 0.6%, and the high tier decreased 2.0%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just five months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

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Case-Shiller: Seasonal Slide in Home Prices Continues

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Portland/Vancouver area* as of October:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between September and October (vs. eighteen from August to September): Only Phoenix saw an increase. Wait, Phoenix? Yup, Phoenix. Atlanta fell the most in October (again), falling a whopping 5.0% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of Portland’s tiers fell in October, with the low tier taking the biggest hit. Month to month, the low tier was down 1.7%, the middle tier fell 0.1, and the high tier decreased 0.4%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just four months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

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Should I Wait Until Spring to List My Home? – Portland Edition

Over on the national blog, we just posted another big analysis of hundreds of thousands of listings and sales. Here are the numbers for Portland, where winter is still a winning time to list your home for a quick sale, a better chance of selling, and a better price:

Case-Shiller: Get Ready for a Long Winter for Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Portland/Vancouver area* as of September:

Seventeen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between August and September (vs. eleven from July to August): Only Washington DC, New York, and Portland rose. Atlanta fell the most in September, falling a whopping 5.9% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

The Portland area’s low tier fell in September, but the middle and high tier both rose slightly. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.4%, the middle tier rose 0.3%, and the high tier increased 0.4%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just three months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now only three have avoided falling into the red.

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Case-Shiller: Summer Ends Early for Portland Area Home Prices

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – August data is released in October).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Portland/Vancouver area* as of August:

Ten of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between July and August (vs. two from June to July): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Washington DC. saw the biggest increase this month, followed closely behind by Detroit and Chicago.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Portland’s low took a hit in August, but the middle and high tiers both rose a tad. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.5%, the middle tier rose 0.2%, and the high tier increased 0.2%.

Here’s a new chart for you. In this one, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

The effects of 2009′s homebuyer tax credit are dramatically visible in this chart, as is the fairly strong spring we had this year, hitting 20 cities increasing for the first time since July 2005. However, the sudden drop-off of month-over-month gains in August’s data is interesting, since during a “normal” year we wouldn’t expect to see this many cities in the red until December or January. I think this indicates that there is still quite a bit of weakness in home prices.

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