Case-Shiller: Price Drops Still Slowly Moderating

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, plus seasonally adjusted and tiered price data, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - April data is released in June).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of April:

April 2009
Month to Month: Down 0.1%
Year to Year: Down 20.0%
Change from Peak: Down 42.3% in 41 months

The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (July 2002).

Prices continue to decline in San Diego, and a 20% year-over-year drop is certainly nothing to sneeze at. However, it is defintely worth mentioning that the trend of decreasing magnitude of price drops in San Diego and LA is also continuing:

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:

To recap, we have seen the following interventions in recent months meant to boost the housing market:

• $8k first-time buyer tax credit
• 4.5% - 5% mortgage rates
• various moratoriums on foreclosures
• numerous federal programs encouraging loan workouts

The apparent result of this host of actions has been a flattening to very slight upticks seen in the chart above, in a month that is historically one of the strongest of the year for the real estate market. I guess you can color me underwhelmed.

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

It’s been six months now since we first pointed out on these pages the sign of a possible bottom on the distant horizon for San Diego home prices. Things are definitely still heading in that direction, but it could easily be over a year before price drops finally hit that bottom.

June City/Neighborhood Price Reductions

Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.

The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.

For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.

First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:

Of the 38 cities/towns we ranked in the San Diego area this month, 12 had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more.

Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten San Diego area neighborhoods for price reductions:

Of the 93 neighborhoods we ranked in the San Diego area this month, 12 had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. On average, the neighborhoods with more price reductions had noticably higher closed prices per square foot than those with fewer price reductions.

The general trend in San Diego looks to be heading slightly toward less price reductions, however every city and neighborhood is of course different. Some may be getting softer while others get tighter. Download the full spreadsheet to check where your neighborhood came in.

Biggest Discounts June Update

Let’s check in on our stats once again and find out where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. If you are a potential buyer, this will help you to know which neighborhoods may be softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from last month in San Diego County and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any areas with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

Here are the top ten areas with the largest overall discount:

The overall discount stayed the same in June from our previous update in April, holding steady at 2.9%. Much of the top ten list also stayed the same. If you’re looking for sellers that might be more likely to accept lower offers, these might be a good place to search.

Here are the ten areas with the smallest discounts:

Twenty-six of the seventy-six zip codes we ranked actually came in with average sale prices above the list price.

Is the area you’re shopping not on either the top 10 or bottom 10? No problem, just download the full rankings in Excel format and hit the “FullSummary” sheet.

Of the 2,778 sales we tracked in the 1-month period, 234 homes (8%) sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 488 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.

Case-Shiller: San Diego Home Prices Creeping Toward a Bottom?

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website.

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - March data is released in May).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of March:

March 2009
Month to Month: Down 1.5%
Year to Year: Down 22.0%
Change from Peak: Down 42.3% in 40 months

The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (July 2002).

San Diego’s year-over-year price drops have been moderating now for five months. Both San Diego and Los Angeles are now clocking in with yearly declines of “only” 22%:

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Southern California definitely appears to be on the leading edge of the national real estate trends. With prices still falling over 20% in a year, it’s far too early to call this a sign of a recovery, but it could definitely be a sign of an imminent bottom. The question then becomes how long will we stay at that bottom?

Case-Shiller: San Diego Price Drops Continue to Slow

It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - February data is released in April).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of February:

February 2009
Month to Month: Down 1.0%
Year to Year: Down 22.9%
Change from Peak: Down 41.4% in 39 months

The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (July 2002).

The rate of decline in San Diego resumed the moderating trend that began with November’s data. Both San Diego and Los Angeles climbed back up from 26-27% yearly declines to “just” 23-24% declines, as can be seen here:

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Price declines have been both swift and severe in San Diego since the peak, but it would appear that November’s data may have indeed been the first sign of an eventual stabilization. However, even if that is the case, the current rate of improvement would put home prices flattening out sometime in early 2011.

Biggest Discounts April Update

Time for another update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in the San Diego area and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.

Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:

At 2.9%, the overall discount for the San Diego area came in the same as last month. The top three most-discounted zip codes were also the same as last month. If you’re looking for sellers willing to bargain, maybe those zips would be a good place to start.

Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:

Of the 3,772 sales we tracked in the 1.5-month period, 343 homes sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 607 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.

We’ve been tracking the discount trend for six months now, and have seen San Diego’s overall discount bounce around between 1.9% off and 4.3% off. It will be interesting to see what the spring and summer bring to these stats.

Case-Shiller: Rate of San Diego Price Declines Plateaus at -25% YOY

Let’s check in on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. - January data is released in March).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of January:

January 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.6%
Year to Year: Down 24.9%
Change from Peak: Down 40.8% in 38 months

The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (August 2002).

The pattern of decreasing year-over-year drops that we had seen in November and December’s data broke stride in San Diego for January, with year-over-year price drops increasing slightly (0.1 percentage points). It would seem that the magnitude of home price declines may have reached a pleateau, but we will still need to keep an eye on this data for a longer period to really know for sure.

For a more detailed analysis of the decelerating home price declines in San Diego’s Case-Shiller stats, check out this pair of posts by Rich Toscano over at the excellent Piggington.com: More on Decelerating Home Price Declines and Yet More on Decelerating Home Price Declines.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

San Diego continues to stand out as having one of the longest and deepest declines in home prices. Tough news for anyone that bought between 2003 and 2008 that needs to sell now, but the news just keeps getting better and better for potential buyers that have been sitting on the sidelines during the bubble.

March City/Neighborhood Price Reductions

Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.

The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.

For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.

First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:

Of the 37 cities/towns we ranked in the San Diego area this month, 20 (54%) had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. Seven cities on last month’s top ten carried over to this month’s top ten.

Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten San Diego area neighborhoods for price reductions:

Of the 94 neighborhoods we ranked in the San Diego area this month, 34 (36%) had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. Last month’s top four neighborhoods all carried over into this month’s top ten, though only Mountain View and Lake stayed in the top four. These are the neighborhoods where you might want to look for sellers that are more anxious to sell.

We’re still seeing a degree of consistency in which neighborhoods and cities have the most price reductions. Are sellers in these locations just not very good at finding the right market price in the first place, or are they so anxious to sell that they drop the price early and often? Either way, the regions with the really high percentage of reduced-price homes are probably a good place to go bargain-hunting.

The Best San Diego Real Estate Blogs

We’re looking for the best non-agent real estate blogs in San Diego.

Top Real Estate Blogs

• Professor Piggington’s Econo-Almanac for the Landed Poor written by Rich Toscano, a financial adviser, is very comprehensive. Definitely check it out.
• Toscano at Voice of San Diego is also written by Rich
• Survival at Voice of San Diego is written by Kelly Bennett covers the local economy and the impact on real estate
• Minding Your Business from reports at the North County Times
• SD Lookup Forums while not a blog, they have an active real estate forum

During my search I did find some other good city & neighborhood blogs:

• sd urban by Paul Jamason covers San Diego’s urban neighborhoods and has lots of local links.
• SanDiegoish, “a blog about interesting things happening in and around town”
• Last Blog on Earth, San Diego CityBeat’s blog
• sandiego:dailed in a bit of everything
• HillQuest, “An urban guide to 92103″
• North Park Scene is pretty self explanatory
• Like photos? Check out The Occasional Odd Crop, It’s Too Sunny Out Here and San Diego Daily Photo.
• Like food? Check out Alice Q. Foodie, mmm-yoso!!!, FoodBuzzSD

And our favorite San Diego agent blog is the San Diego Home Blog written by Kris Berg who also writes for Inman News and Frontdoor. Jim over at Bubble Info also writes a good blog on North San Diego real estate.

If I missed a real estate blog let me know in the comments! Or just let us know if there are some other good local blogs out there.

Update: Kelly Bennett from the Voice of San Diego emailed me with some great suggestions that I had missed so I updated the post. Thanks Kelly!

Biggest Discounts March Update

Let’s have an update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discount off the asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in Redfin’s San Diego service area and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.

Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:

The overall discount for the San Diego area dropped noticeably from last month’s 4.3% down to 2.9%, which is still higher than December’s 1.9% rate.

Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:

Of the 4,320 sales we tracked in the 2-month period, 76 homes sold for more than 20% off the asking price, while 1,568 homes sold for more than asking.

As a whole, the discount trend in San Diego seems to be somewhat schizophrenic. Up and down and up and down. As we continue to watch this data we will be able to get a better picture of what sale-to-list discounts tell us about the overall health of the local real estate market. Once we get enough data points, we’ll be able to plot the overall discount trend on a line chart for an interesting picture of the market.