Flogging Foreclosures
… is an idiom that means a particular request or line of conversation is already foreclosed, mooted, or otherwise resolved, and any attempt to continue it is futile [Wikipedia]. This applies in abundance to the real estate bubble, high risk mortgages and foreclosures. You just can’t escape the overwhelming flow of statistics and opinions and they all say the same thing: there are problems in the industry. And they fail to say the same thing: How do I deal with this? Today we have some specific local news and opinion that may be relevant to you.
foreclosure
– not a pretty picture
Let’s start with one of my favorite experts, a man who is not afraid to voice his derision at individuals and institutions that get too full of themselves. Recently Rich Toscano of the VoiceOfSanDiego.org pointed to the next phase of the mortgage debacle: People with good credit will start walking away from their homes around 2009. They accepted the option ARM temptation to buy more than they could otherwise afford, but they have a bit more time before they have to face the reality of their situation. Soon, their great numbers could dwarf the number of subprime holders presently in distress. On the bright side, if you’re looking for a better home you may soon have a wide selection to choose from.
In another column, Rich goes on to illustrate the bad news about real estate inventory:
The jump from a 7 month to a 12 month inventory backlog is dramatic, particularly when you note the tendency to rise later in the year.
Next, local ERA® Metro Realty has prepared a detailed report on foreclosures (PDF download) for San Diego. Forgive my extreme abbreviation of their findings when I say, for instance, that El Cajon will see about 200 significant adjustments to high risk loans in the first half of this year which will begin to result in foreclosures in the second half of this year. And 809 high risk loans in April and nearly that many in May will adjust with serious consequences for county residents. ERA has produced an impressive report but readers should note that they are a Realtor, and Realtors have their own perspective on things.
Some troubled homes to pick through. These are all foreclosure or pre-foreclosure homes, and all on Massachusetts Avenue in Lemon Grove, 91945.
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Finally, I don’t think I’ve mentioned Bob Schwartz blog yet. Bob is a Realtor with a refreshing attitude. I mentioned above that ‘Realtors have their own perspectives’ (hinting that they are sometimes salespeople first and client advocates later). Bob says this; “I’ve been a member of the National Association of Realtors (NAR) for over 30 years and I’m hard-pressed to remember the Association forecast being anything but overly optimistic.” Bob has lots of interesting things to say to San Diegans.
Lots of well seasoned agents mellow out. The sales hype fades and they bring real value to the client and the industry as a whole. Here’s hoping they survive the ‘troubles’ for the good times ahead.
[data from generally reliable sources, please comment on any errors!]
