Case-Shiller: Home Prices Continue to Plummet in San Diego

Time for a monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of October:

October 2008
Month to Month: Down 3.0%
Year to Year: Down 26.7%
Change from Peak: Down 36.4%

The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (March 2003).

San Diego home price declines gained even more steam in October according to Case-Shiller, with the pace of price drops set in late ‘07 having held fairly steady now for over a year. San Diego’s largest month-to-month price drop was 3.4% in November 2007, so October’s drop, while certainly quite severe, was not the biggest.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s one more chart, in which I have lined up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Of the eight markets Redfin serves, San Diego home prices have fallen the farthest, and the duration of their decline is bested only by Boston.

Looking at this latest data, there still does not appear to be any bottom in sight for San Diego home prices. If you are a seller that took your home off the market for the winter hoping for a rebound in spring, the current trends point toward continued disappointment. Of course, for buyers continued price drops means continually better deals to be found.