Case-Shiller: San Diego Showing First Signs of Stabilization?
I apologize again for the multi-week radio silence here. We’ve revamped our data delivery to be able to better streamline the whole process, and from now on there will be a regular schedule of in-depth data in this space. For now though, it’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of November:
November 2008
Month to Month: Down 2.3%
Year to Year: Down 25.8%
Change from Peak: Down 37.9% in 36 months
The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (January 2003).
With last month’s drop in San Diego’s Case-Shiller HPI, prices have now effectively “rewound” nearly six years. Um, wow.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s one more chart, in which I have lined up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
One interesting piece of data that is not visible in these graphs is the fact that San Diego’s rate of year to year price drops actually declined in November, for the first time since the market’s peak. In October, the year to year decline was 26.7%, compared to November’s 25.8%. This could be the first sign of some kind of price stabilization here in SoCal. Of course, if price drops do continue to stabilize at this rate it will take until late 2010 before we do finally reach the bottom in home prices.
Case-Shiller: San Diego Showing First Signs of Stabilization? said:
[...] I apologize again for the multi-week radio silence here. We’ve revamped our data delivery to be able to better streamline the whole process, and from now on there will be a regular schedule of in-depth data in this space. For now though, it’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – November data is released in January). Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of November: November 2008 Month to Month: Down 2.3% Year to Year: Down 25.8% Change from Peak: Down 37.9% in 36 months The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data […]To read more, click here. [...]
January 27, 2009 10:09 PM
Ara said:
Looking at a longer term chart for Los Angeles area (1987 thru 2008) and comparing to what happened in the 90s, when prices peaked in 1990, it took 6 years for it to bottom at 1996 after which is soared until 2006. If the same curve continues, we should bottom around 2012.
Your chart is not a fair assessment as it is only showing a small time zone.
January 29, 2009 11:12 AM
Joe said:
Ara is right- These charts are completely misleading.
February 9, 2009 1:07 PM
What are the first signs of anorexia? said:
[...] Case-Shiller: San Diego Showing First Signs of Stabilization … [...]
February 14, 2009 12:12 AM
Jo said:
It is a bit misleading. It makes the declines look much bigger than they are, and I don’t understand, why the title asks if the market is stabilizing, if in fact there was a huge decline for SFHs in Nov 2008?
February 14, 2009 3:34 PM
Case-Shiller: San Diego Home Price Drops Slow Ever So Slightly | Redfin San Diego Sweet Digs said:
[...] Last month I questioned whether a slight slowdown in the rate of year-to-year price drops may be the first sign that home prices are on their way to stabilizing in San Diego. Of course, a single month of data is not enough to come to any real conclusions, but it was interesting, nonetheless. [...]
February 25, 2009 12:09 AM
Case-Shiller: San Diego Price Drops Continue to Slow | Redfin San Diego Sweet Digs said:
[...] in San Diego since the peak, but it would appear that November’s data may have indeed been the first sign of an eventual stabilization. However, even if that is the case, the current rate of improvement would put home prices [...]
April 28, 2009 7:49 PM
Case-Shiller: Price Drops Still Slowly Moderating | Redfin San Diego Sweet Digs said:
[...] been six months now since we first pointed out on these pages the sign of a possible bottom on the distant horizon for San Diego home prices. Things are [...]
June 30, 2009 6:03 PM
Case-Shiller: San Diego Price Drops Continue Moderation | Redfin San Diego Sweet Digs said:
[...] to call the end of home price drops just yet. That said, the rate of YOY declines has been dropping since November’s data, so we’re definitely continuing on a trend of moderating [...]
July 28, 2009 7:19 PM