Archive for March, 2009
March 31, 2009
Let’s check in on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – January data is released in March).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of January:
January 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.6%
Year to Year: Down 24.9%
Change from Peak: Down 40.8% in 38 months
The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (August 2002).
The pattern of decreasing year-over-year drops that we had seen in November and December’s data broke stride in San Diego for January, with year-over-year price drops increasing slightly (0.1 percentage points). It would seem that the magnitude of home price declines may have reached a pleateau, but we will still need to keep an eye on this data for a longer period to really know for sure.
For a more detailed analysis of the decelerating home price declines in San Diego’s Case-Shiller stats, check out this pair of posts by Rich Toscano over at the excellent Piggington.com: More on Decelerating Home Price Declines and Yet More on Decelerating Home Price Declines.
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
San Diego continues to stand out as having one of the longest and deepest declines in home prices. Tough news for anyone that bought between 2003 and 2008 that needs to sell now, but the news just keeps getting better and better for potential buyers that have been sitting on the sidelines during the bubble.
March 25, 2009
Let’s take our monthly look at which cities and towns have the most price reductions.
The following charts show the percent of MLS, FSBO or REO listings that were price-reduced at some point before leaving the market (either sold or removed unsold from the market) in the past 90 days. Cities/towns or neighborhoods in which the number of homes taken off the market was too small to provide believable estimates are excluded from ranking.
For those that are interested, I have uploaded the full data set in Excel format here. The downloadable Excel file also includes charts showing the top ten cities/towns/neighborhoods with the least reduced-price listings.
First up are the top ten cities with the most price-reduced listings:
Of the 37 cities/towns we ranked in the San Diego area this month, 20 (54%) had price-reduced ratios of fifty percent or more. Seven cities on last month’s top ten carried over to this month’s top ten.
Getting a little more granular, let’s look at the top ten San Diego area neighborhoods for price reductions:
Of the 94 neighborhoods we ranked in the San Diego area this month, 34 (36%) had a price-reduced ratio of fifty percent or more. Last month’s top four neighborhoods all carried over into this month’s top ten, though only Mountain View and Lake stayed in the top four. These are the neighborhoods where you might want to look for sellers that are more anxious to sell.
We’re still seeing a degree of consistency in which neighborhoods and cities have the most price reductions. Are sellers in these locations just not very good at finding the right market price in the first place, or are they so anxious to sell that they drop the price early and often? Either way, the regions with the really high percentage of reduced-price homes are probably a good place to go bargain-hunting.
March 18, 2009
We’re looking for the best non-agent real estate blogs in San Diego.
Top Real Estate Blogs
During my search I did find some other good city & neighborhood blogs:
And our favorite San Diego agent blog is the San Diego Home Blog written by Kris Berg who also writes for Inman News and Frontdoor. Jim over at Bubble Info also writes a good blog on North San Diego real estate.
If I missed a real estate blog let me know in the comments! Or just let us know if there are some other good local blogs out there.
Update: Kelly Bennett from the Voice of San Diego emailed me with some great suggestions that I had missed so I updated the post. Thanks Kelly!
March 17, 2009
Let’s have an update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discount off the asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.
In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in Redfin’s San Diego service area and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).
For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.
Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:
The overall discount for the San Diego area dropped noticeably from last month’s 4.3% down to 2.9%, which is still higher than December’s 1.9% rate.
Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:
Of the 4,320 sales we tracked in the 2-month period, 76 homes sold for more than 20% off the asking price, while 1,568 homes sold for more than asking.
As a whole, the discount trend in San Diego seems to be somewhat schizophrenic. Up and down and up and down. As we continue to watch this data we will be able to get a better picture of what sale-to-list discounts tell us about the overall health of the local real estate market. Once we get enough data points, we’ll be able to plot the overall discount trend on a line chart for an interesting picture of the market.
