Case-Shiller: Rate of San Diego Price Declines Plateaus at -25% YOY

Let’s check in on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – January data is released in March).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of January:

January 2009
Month to Month: Down 2.6%
Year to Year: Down 24.9%
Change from Peak: Down 40.8% in 38 months

The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (August 2002).

The pattern of decreasing year-over-year drops that we had seen in November and December’s data broke stride in San Diego for January, with year-over-year price drops increasing slightly (0.1 percentage points). It would seem that the magnitude of home price declines may have reached a pleateau, but we will still need to keep an eye on this data for a longer period to really know for sure.

For a more detailed analysis of the decelerating home price declines in San Diego’s Case-Shiller stats, check out this pair of posts by Rich Toscano over at the excellent Piggington.com: More on Decelerating Home Price Declines and Yet More on Decelerating Home Price Declines.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

San Diego continues to stand out as having one of the longest and deepest declines in home prices. Tough news for anyone that bought between 2003 and 2008 that needs to sell now, but the news just keeps getting better and better for potential buyers that have been sitting on the sidelines during the bubble.