Case-Shiller: San Diego Price Drops Continue to Slow

It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).

For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – February data is released in April).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of February:

February 2009
Month to Month: Down 1.0%
Year to Year: Down 22.9%
Change from Peak: Down 41.4% in 39 months

The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (July 2002).

The rate of decline in San Diego resumed the moderating trend that began with November’s data. Both San Diego and Los Angeles climbed back up from 26-27% yearly declines to “just” 23-24% declines, as can be seen here:

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:

And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Price declines have been both swift and severe in San Diego since the peak, but it would appear that November’s data may have indeed been the first sign of an eventual stabilization. However, even if that is the case, the current rate of improvement would put home prices flattening out sometime in early 2011.

Biggest Discounts April Update

Time for another update on where buyers are currently getting the biggest discounts off asking price. Our goal in sharing this data is to help potential buyers to know which neighborhoods are softer in terms of sale price discounts off list price, to better equip you when making an offer, and help you know where to look for potential bargains.

In the chart below, we have taken all sales data from the last two months in the San Diego area and sorted it by zip code. We calculated the overall difference between the sale price and the list price. Note that this reflects the final list price, after all price drops in the listing. Any zips with fewer than ten sales are excluded from the top and bottom ten rankings, but interested readers may download the full data summary in Excel format (xls).

For a quick look at where a given zip code is located, just type it into the Redfin search box, or drop by the handy USNaviguide.com zip code map.

Here are the top ten zip codes with the largest overall discount:

At 2.9%, the overall discount for the San Diego area came in the same as last month. The top three most-discounted zip codes were also the same as last month. If you’re looking for sellers willing to bargain, maybe those zips would be a good place to start.

Here are the ten zip codes with the smallest discounts:

Of the 3,772 sales we tracked in the 1.5-month period, 343 homes sold for 10% or more off the asking price, while 607 homes sold for 5% or more above the asking price.

We’ve been tracking the discount trend for six months now, and have seen San Diego’s overall discount bounce around between 1.9% off and 4.3% off. It will be interesting to see what the spring and summer bring to these stats.