Case-Shiller: San Diego Price Drops Continue to Slow
It’s time once again for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI).
For an explanation of how the Case-Shiller data is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – February data is released in April).
Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for San Diego County as of February:
February 2009
Month to Month: Down 1.0%
Year to Year: Down 22.9%
Change from Peak: Down 41.4% in 39 months
The following chart shows the San Diego HPI scaled such that the November 2005 peak is 100% on the y-axis. Data on the x-axis is scaled to display the last time (pre-peak) the San Diego HPI was at or lower than it was in the latest data (July 2002).
The rate of decline in San Diego resumed the moderating trend that began with November’s data. Both San Diego and Los Angeles climbed back up from 26-27% yearly declines to “just” 23-24% declines, as can be seen here:
Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves, so you can compare San Diego’s performance to other areas across the country:
And here’s our final chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.
Price declines have been both swift and severe in San Diego since the peak, but it would appear that November’s data may have indeed been the first sign of an eventual stabilization. However, even if that is the case, the current rate of improvement would put home prices flattening out sometime in early 2011.
Case-Shiller: San Diego Price Drops Continue to Slow said:
[...] The rate of decline in San Diego resumed the moderating trend that began with November’s data. […]Read the full post here. [...]
April 28, 2009 9:13 PM
baq said:
I always enjoy the Case-Schiller Home Price Index. I think it’s one of the most meaningful accumulations of data that’s collected on home prices – thank you for posting it here.
From my understanding of the Index, it tracks those homes that sell, then it calculates % increase/decline from previous, and finally it averages all of the homes in a particular area to generate a point on the graph for a particular point in time. I only wish that we could have little micro Case-Schiller Indexes for the varying locations within ‘San Diego’. I’m particularly interested the North County coastal area, so the best I can do is ASSUME that the coastal area hasn’t been affected as much as the region as a whole… but by how much?
April 30, 2009 12:45 PM
San Diego Property Management said:
I think the instructive aspect of these graphs is the fact that they indicate we’re operating on a macro-factor level. In my opinion, the true indicator that real estate has reached a bottom, is when the graphs for different cities don’t move in concert. This will mark a return to the maxim that real estate is local and that “local factors” are what dictate real estate prices…
Incidentally, I just launched a blog on how to find and hire San Diego Property Management services. I would love to have your comments!
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