Comments on: What Housing Inventory Says about Future Real Estate Prices in King County http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html Redfin Seattle Sweet Digs Mon, 23 Nov 2009 07:13:24 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.1 hourly 1 By: Larry Burns http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html/comment-page-1#comment-1942 Larry Burns Thu, 20 Mar 2008 16:02:44 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html#comment-1942 Maggie....you are glossing over the term "decreasing demand". The sellers price has nothing to do with buyer's decreasing demand in this current market. Money simply dried up, people are concerned with the economy and $4.50 for a gallon of gasoline. Maggie….you are glossing over the term “decreasing demand”. The sellers price has nothing to do with buyer’s decreasing demand in this current market. Money simply dried up, people are concerned with the economy and $4.50 for a gallon of gasoline.

]]> By: Susie Naficy http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html/comment-page-1#comment-1916 Susie Naficy Fri, 07 Mar 2008 23:12:40 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html#comment-1916 Maggie - You're right! See my last blog post on 2/20 titled Disconnected: Unrealistic Sellers and Unwilling Buyers. I think we are in a holding pattern now before prices really begin to drop. Sellers who aren't desperate to sell, but had their homes listed because they just wanted to make crazy profits using 2006/07 prices, will most likely opt to unlist their home and ride out the bad times. However, many sellers need to sell (this includes spec builders) - and this is where we are likely to see price drops soon as they begin to realize the bubble has burst. Maggie – You’re right! See my last blog post on 2/20 titled Disconnected: Unrealistic Sellers and Unwilling Buyers. I think we are in a holding pattern now before prices really begin to drop. Sellers who aren’t desperate to sell, but had their homes listed because they just wanted to make crazy profits using 2006/07 prices, will most likely opt to unlist their home and ride out the bad times.

However, many sellers need to sell (this includes spec builders) – and this is where we are likely to see price drops soon as they begin to realize the bubble has burst.

]]> By: Katrina Munsell http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html/comment-page-1#comment-1914 Katrina Munsell Fri, 07 Mar 2008 05:36:40 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html#comment-1914 Hi Thor, You're absolutely right about statistics and I don't dispute that you should take a critical eye to historical trends and how they play a role in future events. That said, I believe 2003 likely looks depressed in the latter half of the year due to the residual effects of the early 2000 recessionary period. Between early 2002 and mid 2003, the stock market dove from 11,000 to just above 7,000. That's enough economic uncertainty to do all kinds of crazy things... Hi Thor, You’re absolutely right about statistics and I don’t dispute that you should take a critical eye to historical trends and how they play a role in future events. That said, I believe 2003 likely looks depressed in the latter half of the year due to the residual effects of the early 2000 recessionary period. Between early 2002 and mid 2003, the stock market dove from 11,000 to just above 7,000. That’s enough economic uncertainty to do all kinds of crazy things…

]]> By: maggie http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html/comment-page-1#comment-1913 maggie Fri, 07 Mar 2008 03:32:52 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html#comment-1913 With all the data coming out regarding, increasing inventory and decreasing demand, days on market etc, when are we going to see sellers acknowledging that their homes are not worth what they hope they are and lower their asking prices to more realistic levels? Also on the Eastside in areas like Sammamish and Issaquah, there are many homes for sale in developments with practically identical features, that keep being listed at similar high sales prices. These homes continue to sit on the market without selling - who sets the sales price, is it the seller or the seller's agent or a combination of both. Are they using comps from 2007? If so, is this not a bogus comparison taking the last six months sales performace & inventories into account? Any comments/opinions on when this market adjustment is going to occur? With all the data coming out regarding, increasing inventory and decreasing demand, days on market etc, when are we going to see sellers acknowledging that their homes are not worth what they hope they are and lower their asking prices to more realistic levels?

Also on the Eastside in areas like Sammamish and Issaquah, there are many homes for sale in developments with practically identical features, that keep being listed at similar high sales prices. These homes continue to sit on the market without selling – who sets the sales price, is it the seller or the seller’s agent or a combination of both. Are they using comps from 2007? If so, is this not a bogus comparison taking the last six months sales performace & inventories into account?

Any comments/opinions on when this market adjustment is going to occur?

]]> By: The Tim http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html/comment-page-1#comment-1912 The Tim Thu, 06 Mar 2008 21:07:10 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html#comment-1912 Thor, I leave out 0-4,000 not to make it look dramatic, but because to include it would be a pointless waste of space. There's no data in that range, so why bother including it? I present the numbers in quite a few ways, including offering a spreadsheet which I have manually populated with NWMLS data from 2000 and even before. The point isn't to drive some false impression of the market, but to show what's really going on right now. No, we don't pretend to be unbiased, but at least we lay our biases out on the table, and give people all the information so they can make an informed decision on their own. As I say on our About page: "Don’t take anyone’s word when it comes to what will likely be the largest financial decision of your life. Do the research, and determine if the market is right for you." Thor, I leave out 0-4,000 not to make it look dramatic, but because to include it would be a pointless waste of space. There’s no data in that range, so why bother including it?

I present the numbers in quite a few ways, including offering a spreadsheet which I have manually populated with NWMLS data from 2000 and even before. The point isn’t to drive some false impression of the market, but to show what’s really going on right now.

No, we don’t pretend to be unbiased, but at least we lay our biases out on the table, and give people all the information so they can make an informed decision on their own. As I say on our About page:

“Don’t take anyone’s word when it comes to what will likely be the largest financial decision of your life. Do the research, and determine if the market is right for you.”

]]> By: Thor http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html/comment-page-1#comment-1911 Thor Thu, 06 Mar 2008 20:49:35 +0000 http://blog.redfin.com/seattle/2008/03/what_housing_inventory_says_about_future_real_estate_prices_in_king_county.html#comment-1911 Yes, the current inventory is double what it was 2 years ago, and there was a big increase last fall. But if you look at '02, that year had the 2nd highest Sept inventory, Feb '03 followed with the highest inventory. But for the rest of '03 inventory stayed pretty flat, and actually decreased in Sept from the Feb level. Of course conditions are different now, but I don't think you can look at these curves and predict much. Remember the 3 kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. As for the chart being a great one, I don't know about that. If it also showed 0-4,000 on the vertical axis the current increase wouldn't look so dramatic, which of course is the goal of the chart. Those guys can make charts but they don't pretend to be unbiased. Yes, the current inventory is double what it was 2 years ago, and there was a big increase last fall. But if you look at ‘02, that year had the 2nd highest Sept inventory, Feb ‘03 followed with the highest inventory. But for the rest of ‘03 inventory stayed pretty flat, and actually decreased in Sept from the Feb level. Of course conditions are different now, but I don’t think you can look at these curves and predict much. Remember the 3 kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.

As for the chart being a great one, I don’t know about that. If it also showed 0-4,000 on the vertical axis the current increase wouldn’t look so dramatic, which of course is the goal of the chart. Those guys can make charts but they don’t pretend to be unbiased.

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